The B1G 10: Err Raid? Wisconsin’s offensive transition remains off schedule.

1. The B1G Story

We’re only 5 games in, but this thing isn’t what was envisioned. It isn’t the game-changing shock to the system it was touted to be.

The Air Raid at Wisconsin still hasn’t gotten off the ground.

“I definitely think we’re making it harder on ourselves,” quarterback Tanner Mordecai said after the Badgers’ ugly win last weekend over Rutgers.

It’s not for a lack of trying. Wisconsin threw the ball on 10 of its first 11 plays against the Scarlet Knights. It’s just not working.

It’s not clean. From play call to execution on the field, the operation isn’t smooth. And it shows play after play.

Mordecai completed 3 of his first 8 passes vs. Rutgers for 28 yards, and then 14 of the next 23 for 117 yards to finish the game averaging a paltry 4.6 yards per attempt.

That’s not an Air Raid. That’s a popgun.

It has nothing to do with the Big Ten, or Big Ten defenses, or any nonsensical criticism of the scheme itself. It has everything to do with execution.

Execution from the offensive line in pass protection, by receivers in gaining separation, and most importantly, by the quarterback making good decisions and throwing on time and with anticipation.

All of it is a struggle — and all of it is a significant problem as Wisconsin reaches the heavy lifting portion of the schedule. Up next: offensively challenged — but defensively superior — Iowa.

Mordecai has a TD/INT ratio of 3/3 and is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt. The ball isn’t going downfield, and defenses are sitting on short routes.

If you thought watching the Wisconsin Air Raid was painful the first 5 games of the season, wait and see how the Badgers deal with Hawkeyes DC Phil Parker’s stout defense.

Wisconsin (4-1, 2-0) and Iowa (5-1, 2-1) are clearly the 2 best teams in the West Division, and the winner of Saturday’s game in Madison will own the tiebreaker on the other in the race for the Big Ten Championship Game. Considering the tattered state of the rest of the West, the division lead plus head-to-head may be too much to make up for the loser.

Especially with a struggling offense.

2. The trigger point

Before the blame shifts to OC Phil Longo, understand this: He spent the last 4 seasons at North Carolina, where the Air Raid set records every season.

Those North Carolina teams had Sam Howell (currently the Washington Commanders starter) and Drake Maye (potential top 5 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft) playing quarterback. This version of the Air Raid has Mordecai, who hasn’t replicated his play from the past 2 seasons at SMU in a similar system.

Mordecai has played in an Air Raid system since his first season of college football at Oklahoma, and thrived in it once he transferred to SMU. His TD/INT ratio in 2 seasons was 72/22, and he averaged 8 yards per attempt.

This version doesn’t look anything like that quarterback. The key to the Air Raid is recognition and execution, and the ball isn’t coming out at Wisconsin as quickly as it did for Mordecai at SMU.

But again, it’s not all on the quarterback. The protection not only has been shaky, Mordecai has prevented more sacks by escaping and extending plays.

His best plays this season have often been off schedule, or simply tucking and running. Meanwhile, dynamic wide receivers Will Pauling and Chimere Dike have combined for only 31 catches in 5 games. Dike didn’t catch a pass against Rutgers.

There’s no way Dike, your top deep threat averaging 20.7 yards per catch, should go a game without catching a pass.

3. Figuring out the Air Raid, The Epilogue

Fortunately for Wisconsin, there is the run game. The same run game that has carried the Badgers in previous seasons — and the same run game Longo promised would work fluidly within the Air Raid.

Now it’s the only thing that consistently works.

Braelon Allen has rushed for 472 yards and 7 TDs, and Wisconsin has run the ball (196 times) more than it has thrown it (161). Even though the Badgers 2 weeks ago lost Chez Mellusi (fractured fibula), Jackson Acker ran hard against Rutgers in his first game as Allen’s top backup.

The run game is solid, and is saving the offense. But the deeper Wisconsin goes into the season, the more it will need Mordecai to make plays in the pass game.

In 5 games, Wisconsin has 16 chunk plays of 20+ yards. It should be double that, but is instead 12th among 14 Big Ten teams. Maryland leads the Big Ten with 33 plays of 20+ yards.

“I want to score every time we get the ball,” Mordecai said. “We’ve got to execute, all 11 men on the field. We can’t play 10-man football.”

4. A steady hand

It may not be pretty, but QB Heinrich Haarberg is exactly what Nebraska needs: a dual threat who, for the most part, is protecting the ball.

The Huskers are 3-1 under Heinrich — with the only loss to Michigan. Don’t underestimate those 3 wins, no matter the opponents. It’s baby steps right now in Lincoln.

Overall, Haarberg has 631 yards passing and 352 yards rushing this season. He has accounted for 7 TDs (3 rush). Those numbers aren’t exactly All-Big Ten material, but one number stands out: 3 turnovers (2 INTs, 1 fumble) in the 4 starts.

Day 1 starter Jeff Sims had 6 turnovers in 2 starts (4 INTs, 2 fumbles), contributing heavily to losses to Minnesota and Colorado. Does Nebraska win at least 1 of those games with Haarberg? Maybe.

How much different would those in Lincoln feel about 1st-year coach Matt Rhule if this team were 4-2 instead of 3-3?

5. The Weekly 5

Five picks against the spread.

1. Ohio State at Purdue (+19.5)

2. Indiana at Michigan (-33.5)

3. Illinois at Maryland (-13.5)

4. Iowa at Wisconsin (-9.5)

5. UMass at Penn State (-42.5)

Last week: 2-3.

Season: 21-9.

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible Big Ten player. This week: Penn State TE Theo Johnson.

“He has played a lot of football there, but been part of a deep tight end room. With his size and length, his catch radius is rare. He’s a bit of a project, only because he hasn’t really been featured in the offense. There’s no volume there. He has some limitations as a guy who can engage and block. There’s more value, more upside, in his ability to really develop as a receiving threat.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing.

1. Michigan: Brought 74 players to Minnesota for last weekend’s rout, and 73 played. Only the backup long snapper didn’t (seriously).

2. Ohio State: Buckeyes were 3-of-12 on 3rd down against Maryland, and had 10 penalties for 81 yards — at home. Do that against Penn State, and the results won’t be the same.

3. Penn State: Lions lead the Big Ten with 7.4 tackles for loss per game, including a Big Ten-best 4 sacks per game.

4. Maryland: It wasn’t Ohio State’s 2nd half surge, it was Maryland’s 1st half missed opportunity. Those things can’t happen again vs. Michigan and Penn State.

5. Wisconsin: The defense is getting better, making great strides on closing quickly on the ball. The Badgers are No. 2 in the Big Ten in turnovers forced (10).

6. Iowa: Imagine for a moment, the stress on the Iowa defense and DC Phil Parker. And the Hawkeyes still play at a high level, week after week, despite the offense churning 3 and outs (7 last week vs. Purdue).

7. Rutgers: They’re significantly improved, but they’re just not there yet in the pass game. QB Gavin Wimsatt is developing, but Rutgers isn’t winning big games when it completes less than 50 percent of its throws.

8. Purdue: I get it, it’s the Air Raid and you want to throw the ball. But get RB Devin Mockobee more involved — in the run and pass game. Good things happen with the ball in his hands.

9. Nebraska: Take away the outlier against Michigan, and the Nebraska defense has been downright salty. In their other 5 games, the Huskers are giving up 16.2 ppg.

10. Minnesota: In 2 games against ranked teams, QB Athan Kaliakmanis is 16-of-44 (36.3%) for 185 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs and 4.2 yards per attempt.

11. Northwestern: QB Ben Bryant (upper body injury) has 2 weeks to heal before the Wildcats travel to Nebraska — 1 of 3 winnable games remaining (Purdue and Illinois).

12. Illinois: The Illinois drive chart last weekend vs. Nebraska: downs, INT, punt, punt, TD, missed FG, fumble, punt, downs, punt, INT, downs.

13. Indiana: The 2 guys now running the offense are a former quality control coach (Rod Carey) and an out of work former coach (Justin Fuente) — both midseason moves that reek of desperation.

14. Michigan State: Now we’re going to see if interim coach Harlan Barnett has control of the team. Spartans have had 2 weeks to prepare for a winnable game at Rutgers.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: Does the injury to Cade McNamara finally end this ridiculous “drive for 325” at Iowa? Isn’t the game about winning? — Frank Nordon.

Frank:

To your point, Iowa could easily win out and have 11 wins heading into the Big Ten Championship Game. Even with McNamara out for the season, even with an offense that might be worse than the pitiful 2022 version under new QB Deacon Hill, the Hawkeyes can win on defense alone against a weak West Division.

That would be the worst thing that could happen to Iowa football. Because if the Hawkeyes do finish with 11 wins — or even 10 wins and still win the West — there’s no chance that there’s change on the offensive side of the ball. The same predictable offense under Brian Ferentz will return in 2024 — because how could anyone reach 25 points per game while playing a backup quarterback the majority of the game?

The shame of it all is Iowa has had a championship defense the past 2 seasons. Imagine what could’ve been with an offense that was in the top half of college football? Boston College is currently 65th in the nation in total offense, averaging 397.2 yards per game. Iowa is 132nd in the nation at 249.2.

The Boston College quarterback is sophomore Thomas Castellanos. He’s 5-10, 195 pounds, and was a 3-star recruit who transferred this season from UCF — and leads the Eagles in passing (1,165 yards, 10 TDs) and rushing (500 yards, 7 TDs).

Stop making excuses for Brian Ferentz. The weather in Boston is no different than the weather in Iowa. Any offense can be run at any school, with the right system and right coach.

9. Numbers

12.9. Don’t blame Kaliakmanis for the ills at Minnesota. The Gophers’ defense, the foundation of the program under coach PJ Fleck (especially the past 2 seasons), is struggling.

Minnesota is giving up 26.7 points per game, a whopping increase of 12.9 points from last year’s mark of 13.8. The Gophers are struggling to get pressure (11 sacks in 6 games), and the opponent 3rd down conversion rate is the worst in the Big Ten (50%).

10. Quote to note

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh on QB JJ McCarthy: “Play for play, JJ McCarthy — maybe I’m a little biased, but I don’t think so. I’m trying not to be — but I think he’s the best one, I really do. Certainly no one we’d rather have. Just so good, so proud of him.”