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Dear Tom Izzo, I was wrong about you.
To be fair, I was not the only one with questions at the end of last season. And we have to admit that those questions were warranted.
As the 2024 NCAA Tournament came to a close, Michigan State was wrapping up its 4th straight season as an unranked program. (Keep in mind that the Spartans had just 2 unranked finishes from 2008-20.) In that same 4-year stretch, the Spartans had just one trip to the Sweet 16.
Then, there is the transfer portal dilemma. The Spartans added just 2 veteran pieces ahead of the 2024-25 season, though neither Frankie Fidler nor big man Szymon Zapala were highly coveted in the portal. Michigan State also saw veteran AJ Hoggard leave East Lansing as the rare outbound transfer under Izzo.
Through those facts, it was understandable for me (and others) to question if Izzo was able to adapt to the modern college hoops landscape. Now, it’s time to admit that I was wrong, and I will also admit my premise was way off.
In my questions at the end of last season, I recommended Izzo needs to become more aggressive in his portal selections. And while the pieces he added this year were veterans, they were not the kind of splashy moves others made around the country.
So, how did Izzo find his rebound season and breakthrough for the outright Big Ten title? In the most Tom Izzo way possible: Old-school toughness and a commitment to defense.
It sounds simple, but the numbers back it up. In fact, the Spartans made big strides in that area last year, but the offense was unable to carry its weight in the process.
According to KenPom, last season was the first time the Spartans finished in the top 10 nationally for Adjusted Defensive Efficiency since 2019. That 2019 squad was aided by the No. 5 ranking in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and rolled all the way to another Final Four where the Spartans lost to Texas Tech.
In 2024, MSU ended the year 9th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. From 2021-23, the Spartans never finished higher than 42nd. The problem is that MSU also ended 2024 with the 49th adjusted offensive efficiency.
Translation? Stops are great, but they only really help your case if your team can put the ball in the hoop at the other end of the court.
So far this season, Michigan State has dominated defensively with the 5th-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the entire country. Only Tennessee, Houston, St. John’s and Duke are better.
On the other end of the court, Michigan State has aided its defense with an improved adjusted offensive efficiency, coming in at 28th nationally in that measure. But true to Izzo’s style, how they got there is intriguing.
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Michigan State did not suddenly light up the 3-ball by electric numbers. In fact, the Spartans are significantly worse from 3-point range than they were a season ago, falling from 51st nationally at 36.3% to 30.2% this season. (However, the 3-point shooting defense became elite this season while holding teams to a 3rd-best 28% this season.)
So, where is the offense coming from? The Spartans are riding their defense and 28 defensive rebounds per game (2nd-best in the B1G) to an elite fastbreak scoring unit.
MSU led the Big Ten and is currently 4th nationally with 16.15 fastbreak points per game. That tempo also puts defenders in a bind, leading the Spartans to shoot 22.4 free-throw attempts per game, a top-40 mark in the country.
It’s a true team formula with no Spartan averaging more than 12.9 points per game but with 7 players averaging at least 7 points per game and 9 players averaging 5+ points per game. A total of 10 players also average at least 13 minutes played per contest.
The result is a 2-seed for the Spartans entering March Madness. That’s the best seeding for MSU since the 2019 Final Four run when the Spartans also received a 2-seed.
I am comfortable enough to admit that I was way off in thinking Izzo might continue to struggle in the modern era, but I also think it’s fair to say this season was not so much about any sort of adaption or evolution from Izzo on a style basis. Instead, it was a re-commitment to the style and brand that led him to 8 Final Four appearances and 27 straight NCAA Tournament appearances.
While it remains to be seen if it pays off with another Final Four, Izzo has shown he’s got plenty left in the tank, even in the back 9 of his legendary career.
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.