Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Maryland football game in 2023

It’s been a while since anyone around the Maryland football program thought, “This is the year.”

The Terrapins haven’t won a conference title since Ralph Friedgen engineered a surprising run to the top of the ACC in 2001. Prior to that, Maryland hadn’t been a conference champ since 1985.

Last year the Terps finally built enough buzz for folks to think “This could be the year.” But even that was along the lines of “This could be the year Maryland finishes 3rd in the Big Ten East.”

The stated goal was modest — simply inching ahead of either Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State. Certainly not all 3 at once.

That didn’t happen. But Maryland did have its best season since joining the Big Ten, hitting the 8-win mark with a Duke’s Mayo Bowl win over old ACC foe NC State.

Odd as it seems, there was even encouragement to be found in Maryland’s losses (with the exception of a 30-0 trouncing against Penn State).

A 2-point loss to Purdue is ultimately what separated Maryland from its first Top 25 finish since 2010. And the Terps battled Michigan and Ohio State into the fourth quarter after years of being bullied by both.

An enormous gap has certainly narrowed. And that’s why Mike Locksley was confident enough to proclaim, “Our program is at a point finally we can say we’re here to compete for Big Ten championships” at Big Ten Media Days.

But is it true?

Title contenders? That’s a Taulia task

If Maryland is going to vault ahead of any of the B1G East’s Big 3, much less all of them, Taulia Tagovailoa needs to be the best quarterback in the Big Ten this season. Nothing less will get the job done.

And that part of the equation is certainly attainable. Most insiders rank Tagovailoa as the B1G’s No. 2 quarterback behind Michigan’s JJ McCarthy going into the season. Tagovailoa is 2 years older than McCarthy, so it’s quite possible his experience will prove to be an edge.

Tagovailoa is already Maryland’s career leader in passing yards (7,879), touchdown passes (51) and touchdowns accounted for (59) among a host of other categories.

He’s also 9th all-time in program history with 26 interceptions, and it’s critical that he makes as little movement up that list as possible.

Though Maryland had a successful 2022, Tagovailoa actually took some baby steps backward statistically. His yards per attempt dipped from 8.1 to 7.7 and his completion percentage dropped from 69.2% to 67%. His touchdown-to-interception ratio was also slightly worse than 2021 (2.25 TDs per INT compared to 2.36 in ’21.)

Maryland needs this to be Tagovailoa’s best season from top to bottom.

Keeping Taulia upright? That’s a big ask

Injuries are as much a part of the narrative for Taulia as they are for his older brother Tua, though fortunately Taulia has avoided missing significant time.

He has, however, gotten banged up at inopportune times.

Backup Billy Edwards Jr. had to lead the way in the fourth quarter of the Michigan game and reprised that role in a comeback win against Indiana before starting the Northwestern game the following week. Tagovailoa also left the Week 2 game against Charlotte with an injury, though he certainly wasn’t needed for the Terps to get through.

Protecting Tagovailoa is Maryland’s top priority. And that will need to be done with an offensive line returning just 1 starter from a year ago — Delmar Glaze, who is flipping from right tackle to left tackle. So in a way, even he’s a newcomer.

The Terps are relying on a pair of transfers to hold down the right side. Right guard Corey Bullock is moving up from FCS North Carolina Central, and right tackle Gottlieb Ayezde is from Division II Frostburg State.

Bullock was an all-MEAC player and Ayezde was an all-American, but the downright nasty defensive lines in the Big Ten are a massive step up for both.

It’ll be in Tagovailoa’s best interest to shorten his internal clock this year. His penchant for buying time to make magic happen helps explain how Maryland allowed a league-high 43 sacks behind last year’s veteran line.

If he doesn’t settle for just taking what he can get at times, that total could grow this season — and with it the risk of injury.

Stop aiming at your own feet

Like rock stars or former child actors, the Terrapins frequently have self-destructive tendencies.

In this case, that means either turnovers or penalties.

Maryland was the only team in the Big Ten to commit 100 penalties last season. Since joining the B1G in 2014, the Terps have been 1 of the league’s 3 most penalized teams every year but 2019.

While that issue still needs fixing, Maryland did make progress with its turnover margin last year. It was modest progress — the Terps finished +1 for the season — but it was the first time that’s been a positive number since 2018.

There’s potential for that margin to grow this year. There are 3 legitimate draft prospects in the secondary — safety Beau Brade and cornerbacks Tarheeb Still and Ja’Quan Sheppard, a Cincinnati transfer.

If they can get some help pressuring the quarterback from Maryland’s front, they’ll have a chance to change the course of many games.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Towson (W)

Locksley played for the Tigers from 1988-91, so he won’t be running up the score — although he could.

Week 2: vs. Charlotte (W)

This matchup got a lot more interesting than it was when they signed the game contract.

The 49ers are led by Biff Poggi, who was a high school coach in Baltimore from 1996-2020 before spending 2 years as Jim Harbaugh’s right-hand man at Michigan — a seemingly random jump until one realizes that Blake Corum played for Poggi in high school.

Given his background, it’s reasonable to think Poggi might covet the position currently held by Locksley.

See? Interesting. And don’t think Locks doesn’t know it. A running up of the score might be more likely here.

Week 3: vs. Virginia (W)

It’s hard to know what to expect of the Cavs given the tragic ending to last season.

They weren’t very good before 3 players were shot to death by a former teammate, and Maryland should be the better team by a wide margin. But there’s also no telling how inspired UVA will be this season. Anything is possible in this matchup.

Week 4: at Michigan State (W)

Given Michigan State’s struggles last year and the fact Rutgers is at the back end of the schedule, this is as favorable a draw as the Terps could get for the first road game. Tagovailoa should have a career game against MSU’s pass defense.

Week 5: vs. Indiana (W)

Many seasons this feels like a must-win for either program in the scramble to make a bowl game. The Terps aren’t at that level anymore. Not this year, anyway. Maryland moves to 5-0 for the first time since that magical 2001 season.

Week 6: at Ohio State (L)

There will be plenty of buzz with a pair of 5-0 teams meeting in The Horseshoe … and then a buzzsaw.

The Buckeyes may have been peeking ahead when they visited Maryland a week before facing Michigan last year. That’s not going to happen with the undefeated Terps coming to town. It’ll be a reminder of the bad old days for Maryland.

Week 7: vs. Illinois (L)

If Ohio State doesn’t have the best defensive front in the Big Ten this season, it’s Illinois. And I don’t like the idea of those strengths matching up with Maryland’s potential Achilles heel in consecutive weeks. The Illini are not the type of team the Terps want to see.

Week 8: Bye

Week 9: at Northwestern (W)

A week off and the Wildcats will get the Terps back to their winning ways.

Week 10: vs. Penn State (L)

This won’t be anything like last year’s game, which was over by halftime. In fact, the Crystal Ball foresees Maryland holding a lead in the second half. But the Nittany Lions boast the other top-3 defensive line in the B1G, and one of those players will come up with a game-changing play.

Week 11: at Nebraska (W)

First to 40 wins. Which in this case will be the Terrapins.

Week 12: vs. Michigan (L)

This sets up perfectly on the schedule — the week before The Game in Ann Arbor. This is Locksley’s best opportunity for a program-altering upset and Tagovailoa’s chance at a career-defining performance. But the Wolverines have too much Blake Corum, who gained 243 yards on the Terps last year.

In a game that goes down to the wire, Louisville transfer James Turner will fill Jake Moody’s shoes with a field goal as time expires.

Week 13: at Rutgers (W)

There are 2 ways things could go after the heartbreaker against the Wolverines. The Terrapins will take the path of laying Rutgers to waste.

2023 Projection: 8-4 (5-4), 4th in B1G East

#TBIA

The Crystal Ball is stuck in the ways of the old country, which explains the conservative estimate of Maryland’s capabilities. The Terrapins have a 7-5 floor and a 10-2 ceiling. We just don’t have the stones to predict the ceiling.

If the offense is a juggernaut, the ceiling is attainable. Sophomore running back Roman Hemby gives Maryland a more multi-dimensional attack than in years past. And though the Terps lost a significant amount of talent at both receiver and tight end, there’s also plenty coming in.

Tight end Corey Dyches will have an all-Big Ten season in what might be the league’s deepest position other than running back. Transfers Kaden Prather (West Virginia) and Tyrese Chambers (FIU) are back in their home state to boost the receiving corps alongside Jeshaun Jones.

Defensively, linebackers Ruben Hypolite and Jaishawn Barham can make plays like their peers in the secondary.

It’s impossible to overstate how much Maryland’s success hinges on its unproven offensive and defensive lines while competing against opponents who are unquestionably strong in the trenches. If the Terps can merely manage to be in the middle of the B1G pack at those positions, they’ll take down 1 of the Big 3 and find themselves somewhere nice on New Year’s Day.