USC football: Will Trojans reach College Football Playoff in 2025?

USC is gearing up for Year 4 of the Lincoln Riley era. Unfortunately, for all the early fanfare, things have not worked out as hoped when he was first lured away from Oklahoma.

Across 5 seasons with the Sooners, Riley was a blistering 55-10, complete with 3 trips to the College Football Playoff. In Los Angeles, Riley has produced a Heisman Trophy, but the program is just 26-14 overall with 1 New Year’s Six Bowl appearance and no Playoff bids.

So, what does 2025 hold for USC? It feels safe to say that Riley needs to hit 9 wins and show some major strides on the field, otherwise the good will he’s built on the recruiting trail this offseason will be bittersweet.

With that in mind, let’s dive into USC’s returning production and schedule to solidify a prediction on whether or not they will reach the Playoff.

USC roster and returning production

Despite finishing just 7-6 a season ago (somehow, beating 2 SEC teams in the process), USC is not brimming with returning production on the roster. In fact, the Trojans are 97th nationally in the returning production numbers compiled by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The defensive production is especially poor, ranking 108th nationally with 43% returning.

Offensively, the best thing going for the Trojans is that they return their top 2 receivers in Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, and both should be primed for star production this fall. Unfortunately, Duce Robinson and Zachariah Branch left via the portal, and that’s a blow to the passing game.

In the backfield, USC must replace Woody Marks, one of the best draft picks from the program this year. Complicating that loss is the fact that Quinten Joyner, the 2nd-best back on the roster last season and a rising junior, opted for the portal.

At quarterback, Week 1 starter Miller Moss is gone, but he was replaced late in the season by Jayden Maiava. Maiava returns as the projected starter, but he must improve on the 59.8% completion percentage and 6 interceptions from his 7 games played. Husan Longstreet, a 5-star freshman, is also waiting in the wings for his shot.

Defensively, USC must replace its top tackler, Easton Mascarenas, who is off to the NFL. The Trojans also lost key cornerback Jaylin Smith to the NFL.

The good news is that veteran linebacker Eric Gentry is returning for a 4th season at USC. Last season, Gentry appeared in 5 games and was off to a strong start before redshirting after concerns related to concussions.

Other good news for USC is that the defense was dramatically better in Year 1 of DC D’Anton Lynn. The Trojans will have to hope he can follow up on that performance, even after losing a lot of production from his unit.

USC’s 2025 schedule

USC draws a favorable early-season schedule, complete with nonconference games against Missouri State and Georgia Southern. The start of the Big Ten slate could also be worse with a road trip to Purdue and a home game vs. Michigan State getting things started.

The middle portion of the season is where the rubber meets the road for the Trojans, and it won’t take long to find out if USC is a true contender by the time October is in full swing. From Sept. 27 through Nov. 1, the Trojans will play at Illinois, vs. Michigan, at Notre Dame and at Nebraska.

A couple of losses in that stretch would likely render the final month of the season meaningless, at least in terms of potentially reaching the Playoff. But, if USC can hang through that tough portion, the games at Oregon and home vs. UCLA will have massive implications and be pressure-packed for Riley and his squad.

It’s not the toughest schedule in the country, but there are plenty of potential pitfalls, especially for a program that has shown issues winning tough games consistently. Ultimately, USC should view this year’s schedule as one of opportunity, considering Penn State and Ohio State are absent altogether.

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Will USC reach the Playoff in 2025?

It’s no surprise USC is a dark horse to reach the Playoff after the way the 2024 season went. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the program just a 21% chance of breaking the final field, but that still checks in as the 5th-best odds in the Big Ten.

However, try as I might, it’s tough to put a lot of stock in USC making a major leap in 2025. The recruiting trail is on fire for Riley and his staff right now, but the full weight of those results probably will not even be felt until 2027 or 2028.

It’s hard to scroll through USC’s schedule and see 9+ wins in the regular season, and that’s only accounting for the tough road trips to the middle of the country. If the Trojans also drop a tough one at home, the Playoff will be a massive mirage, and USC could find itself clawing to finish the season ranked in the top 25.

PICK: USC to miss the Playoff (-625 via BetMGM)