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Week 3 Big Ten picks are finally here!
While the B1G had a banner Week 1 (Minnesota was the only team to lose in the opening week), Week 2 brought a dose of reality for a few teams. Michigan received the biggest wake-up call, with the defending national champions effectively run out of the Big House by Quinn Ewers and Texas.
Iowa and Northwestern also sustained brutal losses in nonconference play. The Hawkeyes went down in gut-wrenching fashion to Iowa State, and the Wildcats delivered another rocky performance in an overtime loss to visiting Duke.
As for the first conference game of the year, Michigan State rallied for a brilliant 4th-quarter comeback vs. Maryland. That outcome is unexpected to play a role in the overall B1G race, but it’s an early-season spark for Jonathan Smith and the Spartans.
As for Week 3, some of the B1G’s heavy hitters are on byes with Ohio State, Penn State and USC all idle. A couple of old Pac-12 rivalries dot the weekly landscape while Wisconsin is looking at a marquee opportunity with a visit from No. 4 Alabama.
Now, let’s get to the numbers and our picks for the week!
All lines are featured via bet365.
Hammer’s Week 2 results: 5-6 ATS (Season record: 14-12)
Wisconsin vs. Alabama (-15.5)
- PICK: Wisconsin +15.5
Maybe I’m crazy. I know Wisconsin has not looked like a world-beater on either side of the ball, but this is also not an overreaction to Alabama’s game vs. USF. I simply do not think Camp Randall Stadium (the same place where Ohio State struggled to win a season ago) is getting enough credit here. Do not be shocked by the Tide winning outright by 10-11 points, but 2+ touchdowns certainly feels too rich.
Michigan (-22.5) vs. Arkansas State
- PICK: Michigan -22.5
Michigan is 0-2 ATS to begin the season. Fortunately, Arkansas State provides the perfect opportunity to fix that with close wins against Central Arkansas and Tulsa to begin the year. The QB situation gives me hesitation on a line north of 3 touchdowns, but I’ll take the defense to score at least one touchdown to go with the ground game opening up a bit late.
RELATED: Can the Wolverines regroup and keep pace in the CFP race? Use Tradition’s Michigan sportsbook apps to track the odds all year long.
Illinois (-20) vs. Central Michigan
- PICK: Illinois -20
Illinois was a tough play in any game last season with Luke Altmyer tossing 10 interceptions in the 9 games he played. So far, he’s avoided the negative play while completing 71.4% of his passes across the first two games. CMU is also coming off a blowout loss to FIU, and don’t overlook Illinois’ rushing attack that is averaging 161.5 yards per game to start the year. That’s an upgrade of 35 yards per game from the 2023 numbers.
Minnesota (-16.5) vs. Nevada
- PICK: Minnesota -16.5
Nevada ranks in the 90s for scoring offense and defense in a 1-2 start to the season. And the toughest opponent they’ve played so far is SMU. This feels like a lock, provided we don’t get any surprising setbacks on Darius Taylor’s availability.
Purdue vs. Notre Dame (-10)
- PICK: Notre Dame -10
before the season, I would have been ecstatic to get this line at only 10 points in favor of Notre Dame. You won’t have to remind anyone about what happened to Marcus Freeman’s squad in Week 2. But that’s also part of the point here. Freeman believes his team bought the hype too much before last week’s game. With that mirage gone and the pressure for this season ramped up, I think the Fighting Irish make sure this one isn’t close.
Oregon (-16) at Oregon State
- PICK: Oregon State +16
There’s not a lot that we know about Oregon State’s performance under Trent Bray with wins over Idaho State and San Diego State. However, we do know Oregon has struggled mightily in its first 2 games of the season with plenty of issues along the offensive line. Combine that with the fact this is a rivalry game — on the road for the Ducks — and there’s enough reason to believe this one is close.
RELATED: Oregon’s national title odds have slipped a bit since the preseason. The Ducks are now +1100 to win it all at bet365, but that’s still the 4th-best number in the country.
Washington (-4.5) vs. Washington State
- PICK: Washington -4.5
Pac-12 fans get a real treat this week with 2 of their old in-state rivalries, including the Apple Cup. I think this might actually be one of the best games of the weekend. However, the early performance of Will Rogers and Jedd Fisch’s program have me leaning with the Huskies adding a late score to ice this game at home.
Iowa (-22.5) vs. Troy
- PICK: Iowa -22.5.
Troy has not gotten off to a strong start under first-year head coach Gerad Parker. It’s a great bounce-back opportunity for the Hawkeyes, and it will be further alarm bells going off in Iowa City if Iowa doesn’t roll in a big win.
Indiana (-3) at UCLA
- PICK: UCLA +3
UCLA has played just 1 game, but that also gave the Bruins a bye before this game. I believe in Curt Cignetti. I just don’t know a lot about this year’s version of the Hoosiers. This stands out to me as an evenly matched contest, so I’ll go with UCLA at home as Indiana travels west.
Maryland (-2.5) at Virginia
- PICK: Maryland -2.5.
Virginia is 2-0, meaning the Cavs are 1 win from matching their season win total each of the past 2 seasons. Tony Elliott might be making strides, but I think Mike Locksley calls this game a bit differently after the loss in Week 2. Maryland should also be the more talented team in the latest version of a bitter border rivalry.
RELATED: Maryland is looking to get back into the win column against an old ACC rival. Use Tradition’s best MD sportsbooks to track the latest odds related to the Terps.
Michigan State (vs. Prairie View A&M), Nebraska (vs. Northern Iowa), Northwestern (vs. Eastern Illinois) all unlisted.
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.