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Week 8 Big Ten picks against the spread are in as we move forward with a clearer picture for the B1G Championship race!
Coming out of Week 7, the conference has 3 leaders with unblemished records in No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Penn State and No. 16 Indiana. The Ducks are coming off the biggest game of the season with a 1-point victory over Ohio State while the Nittany Lions head to a bye week after a thrilling overtime win against USC.
Meanwhile, the Hoosiers put their undefeated record to the test on the national stage with a visit from Nebraska. It’s a great chance for Curt Cignetti to showcase what he’s doing in Bloomington, but it also presents a chance for Matt Rhule to show his fledgling rebuild is ready for tough B1G games.
As we embark on the 2nd half of the season, we have some interesting nuggets as it relates to the travel impact of the new B1G landscape. Teams are now traveling back and forth across the country with increasing regularity, and that travel is proving to be a stiff opponent.
Through the first 7 weeks of the season, B1G teams traveling across 2+ time zones are just 3-10 outright as the visiting team. Meanwhile, the home teams in those games are an impressive 9-4 ATS, and home teams were 3-1 ATS in Week 7.
From those numbers, UCLA contains 2 of the 3 outright home losses after falling to Indiana early in the season and Minnesota in Week 7. USC holds the other outright home loss in such games, though the Trojans did cover 5.5 points in the overtime loss to Penn State a week ago.
In Week 8, there will be 3 matchups of teams traveling 2+ time zones, including a short-week trip to Ross-Ade Stadium for Oregon. We’ll see how those road teams fare, but you can bet we’ll revisit this nugget throughout the season.
Now, onto the picks!
All lines are featured via bet365.
Hammer’s Week 7 results: 3-4 ATS (Season record: 35-35)
Oregon (-27.5) at Purdue
- PICK: Purdue +27.5
Oregon is going to win by 40 or lose by 10. That’s simply what happens when a top-5 team ventures into primetime Ross-Ade. In reality, the Ducks should win — comfortably — and I wouldn’t be shocked if Oregon covers the 4 touchdowns. But with what we know crossing time zones so far and a short week off an emotional win, I’ll take the Boilermakers ATS here.
RELATED: After the dramatic win in Autzen Stadium, Oregon has surged to the top of the B1G Championship odds at +125 per DraftKings. Ohio State is right behind at +155, and use Tradition’s DraftKings Ohio bonus to get the best offers available!
Nebraska at Indiana (-6.5)
- PICK: Indiana -6.5
This line scares me a little bit because Nebraska’s defense is no slouch. It would not surprise me if the Huskers are able to slow the tempo and keep it close to the final buzzer, and I could even see Nebraska securing a key upset. However, I’m still leaning with the Hoosiers outright at home. And if that happens, it’s likely Indiana’s offense gets on a roll. There will be plays for Dylan Raiola to make this weekend against Indiana’s defense, but the Hoosier offense is currently among the most efficient in the country. Can the Huskers keep up?
UCLA at Rutgers (-4.5)
- PICK: Rutgers -4.5
Revisit the numbers for teams crossing the country this year, and you’ll have my thoughts on the final score. UCLA will kick off at 9 am PT, and that’s before we even dive into a Bruins team with plenty of problems. Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights have to be hungry to get the bitter taste of last week’s blowout out of their mouths. Greg Schiano should have Rutgers out for blood.
Wisconsin (-7) at Northwestern
- PICK: Wisconsin -7
I doubt I can be classified as a believer in Wisconsin because I don’t think the Badgers will be able to hang with the likes of Penn State and Oregon. But the past 2 weeks show what the Badgers should look like in games against equal or lesser competition. In the past 2 weeks, Wisconsin has averaged 268.5 yards on the ground while leaning on Tawee Walker. He’s averaging 6.79 YPC in those games with averages of 146 yards and 3 touchdowns per game. That recipe probably keeps this game at 7+ points in favor of Wisconsin.
Michigan (-3) at Illinois
- PICK: Illinois +3.5
Forgive me if I’m not entirely enthused about Jack Tuttle under center for Michigan. He’s a better passer than Alex Orji or Davis Warren, but that’s not saying much. He was also responsible for 2 turnovers against Washington. Meanwhile, Illinois is still tied for 5th in the B1G with a +4 turnover margin and ranks 5th in the B1G with 31 points per game offensively. I don’t think Michigan can slow things down enough, and Luke Altmyer could have another big day for the Illini.
RELATED: Can Michigan come off its bye week and make some noise in the B1G race down the stretch? Use Tradition’s Michigan online sportsbooks to take advantage of the best odds as we watch the chase for Indianapolis unfold.
USC (-7.5) at Maryland
- PICK: Maryland +7.5
Remember our nugget about teams crossing the country? Wash, rinse, repeat and put it to good use here. Lincoln Riley does not traditionally tear things up as a road favorite, and he’s already 0-2 outright in true road games as a favorite this season. If forced to pick this game outright, I’d probably still go with the Trojans because I’m a glutton for punishment. But getting this line over a touchdown feels like an extra blessing for going with the Terrapins. This one could certainly be a shootout.
RELATED: The Terrapins desperately need some upsets to turn their season around. Use Tradition’s best MD sportsbooks to track the odds and take action on your favorite potential upset for Mike Locksley’s program!
Iowa (-6) at Michigan State
- PICK: Iowa -6
Michigan State is navigating its way through Jonathan Smith’s rebuild, and the Spartans already look more disciplined with improved effort across the board from the Mel Tucker era. Unfortunately, the turnover margin screams that this game is a nightmare for the Spartans. Iowa is tied for 3rd in the B1G at +6 in that category while Michigan State checks in 2nd-to-worst with a -6 margin. The Hawkeye defense is more middle of the road in scoring this season (7th in the B1G at 17.7 points per game), but that should still be enough to force Aidan Chiles and the MSU offense into some decisive turnovers.
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.