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Where the players are state-by-state: Why the Big Ten must (continue to) recruit nationally
By Luke Glusco
Published:
It’s no secret that the Southeast dominates high school and college football. Seven teams from 5 states — Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Florida, Clemson, Florida State — have won 15 of the past 16 NCAA national titles.
Ohio State, in 2014, is the only school north of Clemson, S.C., to interrupt the dominance.
Closing that gap involves improved player acquisition, and the top dogs in the Big Ten have been making more and more inroads into the country’s top talent pools.
With Michigan and Ohio State in the College Football Playoff and Penn State at 10-2, this year is proof of progress.
Those 3 B1G East programs, along with the rest of the conference, have no choice but to invade the SEC’s turf if they want to compete. The regional disparity in high school football remains as striking as it’s ever been.
Going by 247Sports’ composite ratings as of a week ago, the 11-state SEC chunk of the country boasted 261 players rated 4-star or better, including 23 5-star prospects. The B1G’s 11 states totaled 64 recruits of at least 4-star quality, with just 3 5-star guys.
All major programs have to go outside their state borders to fill out their incoming freshman classes. Alabama, which currently has the No. 1 class, has drawn from 13 states for its 25 commits. But the top 13 and 19 total come from within SEC country. The Tide could easily get by without mining the rest of the country.
That is not so for Big Ten teams. There are simply not enough home-grown players to fill out a roster capable of competing for a national title.
Top B1G East teams raid other regions
Only 9 of Ohio State’s 20 recruits come from B1G states (7 from Ohio), while 8 come from SEC states (Florida 4, Georgia 3, Texas 1). The Buckeyes are bringing in 4 more WRs — including 5-star Brandon Inniss. All 4 will be moving north to join the Buckeyes, 3 from Florida and 1 from North Carolina.
Penn State, which for the 2nd year in a row will bring in the B1G’s 2nd-ranked class behind OSU, is taking 6 of the top 10 players out of Virginia this cycle. It is also owning its home state, taking 6 of the top 10 out of Pennsylvania, but otherwise grabbing just 2 others from within the B1G footprint. Raiding ACC/SEC turf, including Florida, has been a key for James Franklin and staff. The Lions bring in some players from the Northeast Seaboard, but the pickings are generally slim. From New York up to Maine this cycle, there are 6 4-star recruits and 1 5-star. The Empire State has no 4-star recruits and only 12 3-stars. Florida, with a similar population, has more than 300 players rated 3-stars or better.
Michigan’s top recruit hails from Texas. Jim Harbaugh’s class of 19 (as of Saturday) includes 11 players from B1G turf but only 4 from within the state. Harbaugh is working the transfer portal with success, which might keep the Wolverines atop the B1G moving forward despite a less than stellar recruiting class this time around.
Slim pickings for the B1G West
Considering the circumstances, it’s amazing what the B1G West teams have achieved recently — but also understandable that none has won a B1G title in 9 tries under the current divisional alignment.
This cycle, Wisconsin’s in-state player pool has 5 3-star players. That’s it. The Badgers would need to get creative even without a fresh coaching change creating chaos. Maybe Luke Fickell can work his old haunts for talent, but right now his class ranks 59th overall and 13th in the B1G, with 2 out-of-state 4-star players but no one ranked in the top 340 players in the country. It has 1 recruit from Wisconsin, a 3-star running back.
The other B1G West states offer similarly sparse options. This year, Illinois has 6 4-star recruits and Indiana 5. Iowa has 1 5-star and 2 4-stars. Minnesota has 2 4-stars. Nebraska has 1. Add that up, and the B1G West region has produced 1 5-star player and 16 4-star players. The Dakotas combined have 1 4-star and 2 3-star players, and Ohio State has scarfed up the 4-star.
It’s no wonder the B1G West power programs have developed a reputation for turning collections of 3-star players into hard-nosed, bad-weather warriors. There’s no other way to compete. The 7 West teams combined have fewer 4-star-or-better recruits (11) than Ohio State (19) and Penn State (16) have on their own.
Where the talent resides
For the B1G programs that want to chase down Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and the like, the path is clear. Trips to the Southeast and California — that’s how to spend the frequent flyer miles.
Top 10 states for top-level talent (4-star or better): Florida (79), Texas (69), Georgia (40), California (30), Alabama (22), Louisiana (18), North Carolina (16), Ohio (11), Tennessee (10), Missouri (10).
Next 15: Michigan (9), Pennsylvania (8), Maryland (8), Virginia (8), Arizona (8), Illinois (6), New Jersey (6), Mississippi (6), Oklahoma (5), Indiana (5), South Carolina (5), Massachusetts (5), Kansas (5), Washington (4), Nevada (4).
Next 13: Iowa (3), Utah (3), Colorado (3), District of Columbia (3), Arkansas (2), Minnesota (2), Connecticut (2), Hawaii (2), Oregon (1), Nebraska (1), South Dakota (1), Idaho (1), West Virginia (1).
7 states with no 4-stars but at least 1 3-star: Kentucky, New York, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Delaware, New Hampshire, Montana.
6 states without a 3-star recruit: Alaska, Wyoming, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Maine, Vermont.
What the future holds
All programs will go far and wide to find talent. Great players occasionally wind up in obscure places like Alaska, Wyoming, Maine and Vermont. But B1G programs will spent the bulk of their time and money hitting the hot spots. Thanks to the B1G’s lucrative recent TV rights deal and the NIL collectives buttressing the top programs, several of the league’s teams might be able to compete with the SEC big boys in recruiting and attracting transfers. Who knows, at some point that might even pay off on the field.
When USC and UCLA come on board in 2024, a new generation of California prospects might take a longer look at the established Big Ten programs. For the schools willing and able to embrace the new dynamics, a brighter future is possible. On the other hand, several B1G teams will be left in the cold. Just like it’s always been.
The key for the most ambitious programs will be to pillage other regions of the country for top talent, not just the SEC’s leftovers.
Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.