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We’ve reached the final weekend of the regular season here at the Upset Alert desk, and I hope you’ve enjoyed all the entertainment — and the frequent trips to the bank.
We had another upset winner last week, taking advantage of a skewed line when Big Ten West champion Northwestern was actually getting a couple of points at Minnesota. That was easy pickings there, with the Wildcats winning 24-14. (My second choice, Nebraska over Michigan State, would have come through, too.)
Let’s review the Upset Alert activity for the season thus far, with the winning tickets in bold:
- Week 1: Northern Illinois (plus-10) over Iowa: Loss
- Week 2: Arizona State (plus-6) vs. Michigan State: Outright winner (ML +193)
- Week 3: Ball State (plus-13) at Indiana: Loss
- Week 4: Purdue (plus-6) vs. Boston College: Outright winner (ML +193)
- Week 5:Penn State (plus-3.5) vs. Ohio State: Loss but covered
- Week 6:Northwestern (plus-10) at Michigan State: Outright winner (ML +332)
- Week 7: Indiana (plus-5) vs. Iowa: Loss
- Week 8: Purdue (plus-13) over Ohio State: Outright winner (ML +462)
- Week 9: Purdue (plus-2) over Michigan State: Loss
- Week 10: Iowa (plus-3) over Purdue: Loss but covered
- Week 11: Wisconsin (plus-9) over Penn State: Loss
- Week 12: Northwestern (plus-2) over Minnesota: Outright winner (ML +132)
That’s five outright upset winners on the season, plus two others that covered. We talked a few weeks ago about what all that would have meant at the betting window, so betting $100 on the money line for the outright upset and $100 more for taking the underdog with the points, it adds up nicely. Right now, we’d be up $752. (Minus attorneys fees for the divorce, of course.)
So can the Upset Alert genius finish with a bang in Week 13? Here’s what we’re dealing with in the Big Ten this week, as we put a bow on the regular season:
- Nebraska at Iowa (minus-9.5), Friday at Noon ET
- Michigan (minus-4.5) at Ohio State, Saturday at Noon ET
- Purdue (minus-4) at Indiana, Saturday at Noon ET
- Maryland at Penn State (minus-13), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Illinois at Northwestern (minus-17), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Minnesota at Wisconsin (minus-11), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Rutgers at Michigan State (minus-27), Saturday at 4 p.m. ET
First, let me give you a few thoughts. I picked Michigan to win the Big Ten back in August and I’m standing by that. Want my two cents? I think they go in to Columbus and win comfortably against Ohio State, by about 10 points.
And those four double-digit favorites on Saturday? I can’t see an outright upset there.
So that leaves me with two choices, Friday’s Nebraska-Iowa game and Saturday’s Indiana-Purdue game. I’m scared of the Hawkeyes, because I’m 0-3 in games where I’ve picked them this year. I actually think Nebraska has a pretty good chance to win this game outright, but I’ll step back.
Step back, and cast my lot with the alma mater, the Indiana Hoosiers.
The Old Oaken Bucket game is a double dip of bowl-eligibility chasing, with both teams coming into the game with 5-6 records. Purdue is the runaway winner in epic highs and disastrous lows this season in the Big Ten, and it’s amazing that the Boilermakers come into this game with a losing record.
This is a team, mind you, that beat then-No. 2 Ohio State by 29 points. And still lost six games.
Right now, I think they’re a bit of a mess. They got smashed at Minnesota and then lost an overtime heartbreaker to Wisconsin. Their coach, Jeff Brohm, is probably taking another job (Louisville) on Sunday. I can’t see this team being ready to give it 100 percent, even in a rivalry game.
Indiana has had a weird year. The Hoosiers have won the games they’re supposed to, and lost the ones they weren’t. They’ve been competitive against the better teams, but couldn’t find a way to win. They need a signature win.
That ends Saturday in Bloomington. Playing at home helps, and I think the Hoosiers come up with the big plays in the fourth quarter. In an entertaining game, I’m going with Indiana 34, Purdue 30.
And yes, it’s just fake money, so let’s throw the $500 on Indiana and the four points, and the other $252 on the money line.
Tom Brew has been a recognized reporter in Big Ten sports for decades. Among other projects, he writes about Big Ten football for Saturday Tradition.