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The regular season is over and it’s on to Championship Weekend. There’s just one Big Ten game on the ledger this week, Saturday night’s Big Ten Championship game clash between Ohio State and Northwestern at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Ohio State, the Big Ten East champions after its 62-39 thrashing of Michigan last weekend, is a heavy favorite over Northwestern, the four-loss champion of the Big Ten West. The Buckeyes are favored by 14.5 points over the Wildcats, who are playing in their first-ever Big Ten title game and haven’t won the Big Ten since 2000, when they were co-champs with Purdue.
That huge point spread causes a problem for me. The premise behind this Friday column all season was to find that upset special on the schedule, and run with it. And that’s what I’ve done, with moderate — well, moderate-plus — success.
Let’s review the Upset Alert activity for the regular season, with the winning tickets in bold:
- Week 1: Northern Illinois (plus-10) over Iowa: Loss
- Week 2: Arizona State (plus-6) vs. Michigan State: Outright winner (ML +193)
- Week 3: Ball State (plus-13) at Indiana: Loss
- Week 4: Purdue (plus-6) vs. Boston College: Outright winner (ML +193)
- Week 5:Penn State (plus-3.5) vs. Ohio State: Loss but covered
- Week 6:Northwestern (plus-10) at Michigan State: Outright winner (ML +332)
- Week 7: Indiana (plus-5) vs. Iowa: Loss
- Week 8: Purdue (plus-13) over Ohio State: Outright winner (ML +462)
- Week 9: Purdue (plus-2) over Michigan State: Loss
- Week 10: Iowa (plus-3) over Purdue: Loss but covered
- Week 11: Wisconsin (plus-9) over Penn State: Loss
- Week 12: Northwestern (plus-2) over Minnesota: Outright winner (ML +132)
- Week 13: Indiana (plus-4) over Purdue: Loss.
As you can see, I’ve had great success with picking Northwestern as an underdog and picking against Ohio State as a favorite this year. I’m 2-0 with Northwestern, picking them as 10-point dogs at Michigan State and 2-point dogs at Minnesota. Took a big fictional truck to the fictional bank both times.
As far as Ohio State goes, I nailed the upset of the year when I picked Purdue to beat them outright as 13-point underdogs. I also picked against them vs. Penn State, and didn’t get the outright win but did cover.
So you think I’d be dialed in on these teams, but I’m clearly not. I was totally embarrassed in other posts last week when I was firmly convinced that Michigan would beat Ohio State.
I was very wrong there, but at least there were no fictional dollars on the line. Just pride. And shame.
I cast my lot last week on my alma mater, Indiana. The Hoosiers came up short against Purdue and I lost all of my fictional $752 in winnings in the process. That’s what degenerate gamblers do, even in fiction. Trust me, I know.
There was nothing left to pay the fictional divorce lawyers either, so it’s off to the pawn shop to scrape up some cash. It’s a thing. You degenerates know.
With no money left, I can’t place a fictional bet on this title game, which is probably a good thing because I don’t like Northwestern’s chances to win this game at all anyway. Ohio State has come to the Big Ten Championship game many times needing to make a statement to get into the College Football Playoff.
Remember 2014 and the game against Wisconsin? The 59-0 whitewash that convinced the selection committee that the Buckeyes were better than TCU and Baylor? That smackdown basically won them a national championship. That’s the kind of convincing the Buckeyes need to do again this year to make the playoffs.
The won this game last year too in this same situation, so they know how to go to Indy and win big. It wasn’t enough to get that last playoff last year, but a huge win Saturday night might do it this time if a few things fall into place.
That’s why I just can’t call a Northwestern upset. I think the Buckeyes win this one easily.
But if you need an upset special, well, I aim to deliver here. Let’s look at all the conference games this weekend and see if I can do a favor or two for you.
Here’s the slate:
- Mid-American: Northern Illinois (plus-3.5) vs. Buffalo, Friday, 7 p.m. ET
- Pac-12: Utah (plus-5.5) vs. Washington, Friday 8 p.m. ET
- Big 12: Texas (plus 7.5) vs. Oklahoma, Saturday, Noon ET
- Sun Belt: Louisiana (plus 16.5) vs. Appalachian State, Saturday Noon ET
- Conference USA: UAB (plus-1) vs. Middle Tennessee State, Saturday 1:30 p.m. ET
- American: Memphis (plus-3) vs. UCF, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
- SEC: Georgia (plus 13.5) vs. Alabama, Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
- Mountain West: Fresno State (plus-2.5) vs. Boise State, 7:45 p.m. ET
- ACC: Pittsburgh (plus-27.5) vs. Clemson, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
- Big Ten: Northwestern (plus-14.5) vs. Ohio State, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
If I pawned my golf clubs at the fictional pawn shop, here’s what I’d do with the flash cash. Friday night, I’d take Utah and those points to beat Washington. The Huskies are going to have an emotional letdown and the Utes will take advantage.
There are three games Saturday that are worth grabbing. Memphis has played UCF tough these past few years and quarterback McKenzie Milton is done for the year after a horrific leg injury last week. So the Tigers will pull off the upset and end all this silly UCF playoff talk. And on our sister site, Saturday Down South, I also have laid out a path for Georgia to upset Alabama. Be careful with real dollars on that one, though.
And here’s the one I really want to happen: UAB in the Conference USA title game.
If you don’t know the story of UAB football’s amazing return from the grave, you should. Alabama trustees shut down this program a few years ago, and a kid in a wheelchair rallied the community and the state to bring it back. They did, and now in its second year back, they’re playing for a conference championship, which is just amazing. Take UAB to win straight up.
That’s it for now. See you when the bowl games roll around. The fictional divorce should be done by then.
Tom Brew has been a recognized reporter in Big Ten sports for decades. Among other projects, he writes about Big Ten football for Saturday Tradition.