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In a season that started with Wisconsin as the favorites to win the B1G West, the Badgers are off to their worst start record-wise in 3 decades. With a high rate of turnovers, second-half collapses and a tough schedule, Wisconsin finds itself with a 1-3 record, including 0-2 in conference play.
Where the Badgers go from here will say a lot about the culture of the program, which has almost always been strong under Paul Chryst. The final 2 months of the season could go in plenty of directions depending on if players and coaches remain motivated with some of their goals already gone.
Despite the sky-is-falling aura around Wisconsin, the Badgers would likely be favored in 7 of their final 8 games right now, and if they win out, there’s probably greater than a 50% chance they would compete for the B1G Championship in Indianapolis. The glass could not be more full in that scenario, because if Wisconsin continues to play like it has over the past month, missing a bowl game becomes a real possibility.
So how did Wisconsin get to this point? Here’s a look at 5 of the many reasons the 2021 season has started out so poorly for the Badgers.
Passing game struggles continue
Wisconsin returned all of its top pass catchers from the tight end and wide receiver positions, including Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, the 2 top wideouts who missed almost all of 2020. They would be catching balls thrown by the highest-ranked quarterback recruit in program history in Graham Mertz, with a full offseason to prepare.
The results have not been there, and the progression of Mertz has been non-existent. He hasn’t been accurate, completing just 56.4% of his passes, but his turnovers have been the major issue. Mertz has thrown 6 interceptions and lost 2 fumbles in Wisconsin’s 4 games.
We have seen glimpses of how good the passing game could be, but for some reason, that hasn’t been the norm. Mertz looked fantastic in the final 2 first-half drives in last week’s loss to Michigan, completing 8 of 10 passes for 115 yards with a touchdown. He went into halftime with some confidence, which is why the timing of his injury was so unfortunate; he went down on the first drive in the third quarter and never returned.
Chase Wolf turned the ball over on consecutive drives in relief. No matter how much fans want to see a different starting quarterback, that is not going to happen this season so long as Mertz is healthy.
Running game struggles
Wisconsin can usually hide poor quarterback play with a powerful offensive line and game-changing running backs. Neither of those has shown up to this point of the season, and the lack of production from the offensive line is almost as concerning as what has happened at the quarterback position.
The Badgers have continued to rotate linemen, and while that was less the case against Michigan, why Wisconsin sees the need to shuffle guys in and out should certainly be a question. Consistency along the line to develop chemistry is extremely valuable, and it’s something the Badgers have relied on for years. Right now, that is not working, as Wisconsin is not only struggling to create lanes for the running game, but Mertz is not being protected very well — an unblocked Michigan defender is the reason he needed to leave the game for the hospital.
Against the Wolverines, Wisconsin allowed 6 sacks and averaged 1.3 yards per carry on 32 attempts. Chez Mellusi, Jalen Berger and Isaac Guerendo do not have the talent of the recent great Badgers running backs, and they are not being helped out by the offensive line.
True freshman Braelon Allen led Wisconsin with just 19 yards rushing on 5 carries, and it seems highly likely he will be a bigger part of the offense moving forward. At just 17 years old, he is a 240-pound physical freak, and given that he’s played in 3 games already this season (he missed one with a concussion), the coaching staff seems to have zero intentions of redshirting him, so it must have a plan for what it could see from him down the stretch.
Second-half collapses
In all 3 losses, Wisconsin went into the break with roughly a 50% chance at coming away with a victory, but the second half has been a mess for the Badgers, especially the fourth quarter.
Against Penn State, Wisconsin led 10-7 early in the fourth quarter before allowing big gains 2 drives in a row to give up 10 points. The Badgers had chances on their final 2 possessions, trailing by 6, but failed to score on a 1st-and-goal from the 1, and Mertz threw 2 interceptions on the last 2 drives.
The Badgers took a 13-10 lead against Notre Dame early in the fourth quarter before everything came undone. On the next play, Wisconsin gave the lead right back on a kick return touchdown, missed a field goal and turned the ball over 4 times, with Mertz’s final 2 throws going for pick-6s as Notre Dame scored 31 unanswered points.
Against Michigan, 2 great drives led by Mertz got Wisconsin within 13-10 right before the half. But after Mertz’s injury, Michigan scored 25 unanswered points before the Badgers managed a meaningless touchdown on their final drive.
Allowing explosive plays
Wisconsin’s defense should not be taking much blame because the Badgers offense and special teams units consistently put it in bad spots with turnovers and miscues. Teams simply cannot run against the front seven of the Badgers, who rank No. 1 in rushing yards allowed per game and rushing yards allowed per attempt against FBS teams.
But the secondary is a weak link right now.
The Badgers allowed passing touchdowns of 34 and 56 yards against Michigan, a 36-yarder to Notre Dame and a 49-yarder to Penn State. Wisconsin was fortunate the Nittany Lions did not connect on more, because plenty of long touchdowns were available had passes been thrown better.
Front-loaded schedule
Wisconsin started the 2021 season with one of the toughest schedules in the country with Penn State, Notre Dame and Michigan in its first 4 games, and that’s a significant reason there is so much panic among the fan base right now.
Three losses over the course of a season is not out of the ordinary for Wisconsin. It has lost at least that many every year for the past decade aside from 2017. The difference is the 3 losses this year happened by the first week of October. Wisconsin knows it will not be a contender on a national level. If the Badgers had their tougher matchups scheduled sporadically over the course of the season, the possibility of a complete meltdown would not be as real as it is at this point.
If Wisconsin had 3 weak non-conference opponents to begin the year and began B1G play against any team in the B1G West outside of Iowa, the Badgers would be 4-0 and maybe the offense would’ve found a rhythm and built some confidence. Instead, they challenged themselves against Notre Dame and were handed 2 tough conference opponents right out of the gate, and the frustration is growing.
If Wisconsin wants to remain in the upper-middle-class tier as a program, it cannot go 0-3 against the best teams on the schedule. That’s exactly what happened, and it’s one of the many reasons the 2021 season has gone south and the direction of the program is in question.
Erik Buchinger brings his vast experience covering Wisconsin and B1G football to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @DeceptiveSpeed.