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Wisconsin football: The Badgers can win the B1G West without a passing game
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The Wisconsin Badgers have their goal to win the B1G West right in front of them as they begin the final third of the regular season Saturday at Rutgers.
Wisconsin likely will be favored in each of its final 4 regular-season games, which means the program is in great position to compete for the Big Ten title for the 7th time in the 11 years the league has held a championship game.
What a difference an offensive strategy adjustment and a 4-game winning streak can make.
Many fans expected more out of Wisconsin (5-3, 3-2) as a dark-horse College Football Playoff team, but a West Division title and another trip to Indianapolis work well as consolation prizes.
The Badgers lost their way on the path to the Playoff with a misguided approach on offense. Highly-touted QB Graham Mertz and a modern aerial attack apparently are not good answers — not at Wisconsin. The passing game fell way short of expectations during the team’s 1-3 start, with few explosive plays, too many turnovers, inaccurate throws and an offensive line that took a few weeks to come together.
Mertz has several years of eligibility left, but the idea of him being the guy to take Wisconsin to the next level as a program is becoming more unlikely by the week.
Fortunately for the Badgers, a division championship does not necessarily rely on a strong and consistent passing game, because Wisconsin has proven it can win without it.
After low-scoring losses to ranked opponents Penn State, Notre Dame and Michigan through the first 4 weeks of the season, Wisconsin has turned things around. The Badgers control their destiny in the West. They are in a three-way tie for second place with Iowa and Purdue (teams they’ve already beaten) and will face current division leader Minnesota to close the regular season.
What’s changed? Well, Mertz is doing less so Wisconsin can do more.
In this 4-game winning streak, Mertz has completed 34 of 64 passes (53.1%) for 92 yards per game with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. In the second halves of the last 2 games — key division wins vs. Purdue and Iowa — Mertz completed 1 of 8 passes for 14 yards. Yes, the Badgers beat 2 ranked opponents by double digits with a completely one-dimensional offense.
Not many programs can win that way, but Wisconsin can. Wisconsin is solid everywhere else on the roster. That’s why the Badgers should be considered the favorites to win the West.
An elite-level defense
Looking at the remaining schedule that consists of Rutgers, Northwestern, Nebraska and Minnesota, there will be one elite unit on the field every week, and that’s Wisconsin’s defense. It’s hard to find many defensive statistics where the Badgers are not ranked near the top, and the front seven might be as dominant as Wisconsin has ever seen.
Wisconsin’s defense ranks No. 1 in yards per game allowed against FBS opponents, No. 5 in points per game, No. 2 in yards per play, No. 1 in yards per rush attempt and No. 10 in yards per pass attempt. The Badgers have finally started forcing turnovers with 8 in their last 2 games after creating just 4 takeaways in their first 6 contests.
Wisconsin’s has allowed just 2 touchdowns in their 3 games against B1G West opponents, and one came on a short field after a Badgers turnover. It’s hard to imagine any of the remaining offenses finding a great deal of success against a Wisconsin defense that seems to be getting better each week.
A much-improved rushing attack
It took forever for the staple of Wisconsin football to get going, but the offensive line has gone away from the strange rotating shifts it had been doing early in the season, and the Badgers have seen the emergence of true freshman Braelon Allen, who appears to be the next star running back for Wisconsin.
With the combination of Allen and Chez Mellusi, Wisconsin has returned to running the ball at a high level. With the coaching staff gaining more trust in Allen after some early fumbling issues, his workload should continue to grow, because there is a gap between him and Mellusi when it comes to explosiveness. In the 4 games since Allen became a larger part of the offense, he has rushed for more than 100 yards in every matchup.
The reason Wisconsin did not need to throw the ball much in the second halves of their last 4 games is because the Badgers kept running the ball, and the defenses struggled to stop it. None of the 4 remaining opponents have a better rushing defense than Iowa, and Allen was able to go for 104 yards against the Hawkeyes despite going a full quarter without a carry.
Kicks and punts
This probably is not getting the attention it deserves, but Wisconsin’s kicking game has been impressive and could play a major role down the stretch.
Andy Vujnovich has punted 38 times this season for an average of 45.4 yards. If he maintains that pace, that would set a single-season record for Wisconsin with a minimum of 20 attempts. The current leader is Ken DeBauche, who averaged 44.8 yards in 2005. Vujnovich has 9 punts that have gone 50 or more yards, and he has forced opponents to start drives from inside their own 20-yard line 13 times with just 2 touchbacks.
Punting was never much of a question mark going into the season, but the field goal kicker was. Collin Larsh edged out Jack Van Dyke for the role, and he’s been a pleasant surprise. Larsh has connected on 19 of 20 extra points with the lone miss coming on a block. On field goal attempts, he’s made 12 of 14 and the misses came on one that was blocked and one that was from 52 yards out.
With a passing attack that is not scaring anybody, the Badgers still have a great chance at closing their season on an 8-game winning streak and heading to Indianapolis once again.
Erik Buchinger brings his vast experience covering Wisconsin and B1G football to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @DeceptiveSpeed.