
Betting Stuff: 3 matchups that will define the College Football Playoff National Championship
The College Football Playoff has reached the National Championship. Ohio State, the preseason favorites, meet darling Notre Dame, which has knocked off Georgia and Penn State en route to the national final.
Ohio State is an 8 or 8.5-point favorite at most Ohio sports betting apps. The Buckeyes opened as a favorite of as many as 9.5 points before Notre Dame money swayed things. Favorites have done exceptionally well in this Playoff and have historically fared well in the national title game. Can Notre Dame knock off 1 more giant, or will Ohio State make good on its preseason promise and win it all? Here are 3 matchups I see looming large over the result.
JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer vs. Charles Jagusah
After an injury in the national semifinals, Notre Dame will be without starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp for the national final. Right guard Rocco Spindler will be available after also picking up a knock (he’s listed as RG1 on the team’s official depth chart), so the right side of the Irish line will be intact.
The left side becomes the place for Ohio State to try and attack.
Tosh Baker and Charles Jagusah are listed as co-starters at the left tackle position. Baker played the most extensive action he’s seen all season in the semis against Penn State and had the second-worst game of his career, according to Pro Football Focus.
The outlet graded Baker at a 41.5 overall, with a 21.3 pass-blocking grade. He allowed 5 quarterback pressures and a sack.
Jagusah was expected to be Notre Dame’s starting left tackle coming out of fall camp before a pec injury put him on the shelf for the entire season. He made his return to the field in the semifinal, playing 53 snaps at right guard and posting the best pass-blocking grade of anyone to see the field for the Irish (86.9). In theory, Notre Dame should feel more comfortable with its left tackle spot.
That being said, Jagusah has only played a handful of snaps. And Penn State dynamo Abdul Carter was lining up opposite the right tackle for almost the entire game.
Front and center, the most important job for Notre Dame’s offensive line is figuring out how to slow down the pass-rushing, run-wrecking duo of Tuimoloau and Sawyer. That pair has 28.5 tackles for loss and 20.5 sacks on the season. Sawyer has a sack in every Playoff game thus far (4.5 total). Tuimoloau has 8 TFLs in the CFP thus far.
Sawyer provided the play of the game against Texas when, on fourth-and-goal late, he stripped quarterback Quinn Ewers and returned the fumble 83 yards for a game-icing touchdown.
Sawyer is coming off his best game. He’ll have loads of confidence. And Ohio State might be firing out of the gates in a game that is sure to have no shortage of juice for either side. Sawyer thrives on energy, so Notre Dame will need to be aware of him on every snap.
Which opens the door for Tuimoloau, who has 17 total quarterback pressures, 11 stops, and only 2 missed tackles in 3 games. Because of Sawyer’s brilliance, it’s easy to forget Ohio State has another edge who can create havoc. The question for the duo coming into the Playoff was whether they’d raise their level of play to match the moment — something they hadn’t done consistently during the regular season. They’ve been undeniably outstanding.
A key stands out here: Tuimoloau is outstanding in run support. He’s physical enough to set the edge and hold his ground. Among qualified FBS edge rushers this season, his run defense grade (87.5) ranks seventh. Notre Dame is going to try to establish the run, and given Ohio State’s prowess in the red zone and in short-yardage spots, the Irish need to turn a few mundane runs into explosive plays.
The Buckeyes are the best team in the country when it comes to limiting opponents on early downs. Per Game on Paper, they’re in the 99th percentile in early-downs EPA per play. Across the line of scrimmage, Notre Dame’s offense ranks ninth in EPA per run.
If Tuimoloau is winning on the edge and Ohio State is shutting down some of those early runs to put Notre Dame in passing downs, Sawyer becomes a problem that Jagusah (or Baker) has to deal with. That’s asking an awful lot of 2 players who didn’t really expect to be in this position going into the national final.
How do you, as the bettor, take advantage of this potential outcome? Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard’s rushing prop is 36.5 at FanDuel. Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava and Akron’s Tahj Bullock are the only quarterbacks all season to have more than 32 rushing yards against the Buckeye defense. Given Notre Dame’s known deficiencies in the passing game and its tendency to run, expect Ohio State to sell out and put this game on Leonard’s arm. Leonard had 30 rushing yards against Indiana and 35 against Penn State. With sacks factoring into the total, there’s a good chance he might go under this number.
Bet Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard fewer than 36.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

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Jeremiah Smith vs. Christian Gray and Leonard Moore
Smith took home MVP honors in the Rose Bowl win over Oregon after abusing the Ducks’ secondary all day. He finished that game with 187 yards and 2 touchdowns and enters the national championship with 1,227 yards and 14 scores in 15 games. He’s a true freshman, but already the best receiver in the FBS.
Texas rolled coverage toward Smith and threw a wrench into the Buckeye pass game. After Smith ripped through the first 2 defenses he faced in the Playoff, he was held to 1 catch for 3 yards on 3 targets. He was clouded, doubled, jammed, and effectively removed from the game.
Texas corners Jahdae Barron and Malik Muhammad spent virtually the entire game operating from zone against Ohio State, with 97% of Barron’s coverage snaps and 100% of Muhammad’s in zone coverage.
“It was little bit more about execution than anything else. [Texas] didn’t play us any differently than some of the other teams we played. But we weren’t able to sustain a few of those drives and connect on a couple of other plays,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said of Smith’s lack of production against Texas. “We know how teams are going to take a look at us and play us. [Notre Dame is] going to play some man. They’ll certainly know where Jeremiah is, and then they’ll play some one-high, and they’ll play some two-high, and they’ll mix it up.”
How much remains to be seen.
Among cornerbacks with at least 100 snaps in coverage this season, Notre Dame’s top 4 corners — Christian Gray, Leonard Moore, Jordan Clark, and the injured Benjamin Morrison — have 4 of the 9 highest rates of snaps spent in man coverage. All 4 are in man more than 60% of the time.
Moore has gotten burned in zone coverage this season. Gray has gotten picked on in the CFP. He gave up 3 catches on 3 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown to Indiana. He gave up 4 catches on 7 targets for 92 yards against Georgia. On the season, he’s allowing 16 yards per reception and a 53.7% catch rate when targeted in man coverage.
Penn State’s pass-catchers did absolutely nothing to threaten Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions finished that game without a single reception by a wide receiver. The jump in quality from Penn State to Ohio State is going to give Notre Dame’s secondary whiplash.
This is a secondary that currently ranks first in EPA per dropback faced and first in passing success rate allowed. All season long, they’ve been able to neuter opposing pass games. USC is the only team since Oct. 19 to throw for more than 240 yards against the Irish.
“The key is when you have weapons across the board, it’s a little bit harder to just take one thing away. Then it’s our job and Will (Howard)’s job to make sure that we understand what they’re taking away and what they’re giving up. That’s the key here,” Day said. “We’re about to play a team that has been unbelievable about creating turnovers and creating scores after their turnovers. Efficiency is going to be something that we’ve got to do a much better job of in this game if we’re going to win it.”
Howard posted a third consecutive 90-plus QBR in the Cotton Bowl. He completed 72.7% of his throws for 289 yards despite not getting anything from his biggest weapon. How? He recognized what Texas was trying to do and didn’t force the issue.
Notre Dame seems confident it can do its own thing. These corners are big and capable of being up close and physical with Ohio State’s receivers.
“A lot of teams have went to the zone mindset when playing them,” Moore said this week. “I think Penn State played a decent amount of man. That’s their identity. But I think that going into this game we’re not going to change who we are. We’re going to play man coverage like we do every week. We’re going to go out there and challenge their receivers.”
I don’t think that’s a misdirect. I think Notre Dame is going to win on its terms or lose on its terms in this regard.
So, what does that mean for this particular matchup? What killed Tennessee and then Oregon is that Ohio State was able to get what it wanted through the air off the rip. Smith scored first-quarter touchdowns in both games, explosives were happening all over the field, and Ohio State lit up the scoreboard. When Texas sat back and focused on limiting the Buckeyes through the air, we saw an offense that took much longer to get going.
As Al Golden builds his gameplan for the national final, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him come out early daring Ohio State to run the football. If this game becomes a track meet, the advantage rests with Ohio State; Notre Dame won’t win a game in the high-30s or the 40s. But if the Irish can muddy it up and keep it lower scoring, then you’re amplifying the impact of a turnover or key mistake, and that’s where Notre Dame has made its money all season long.
That’s the way Notre Dame will try to play it. I don’t know that Notre Dame, sans Rylie Mills in the middle of the defensive line, can be successful doing that. If Ohio State can move the ball on the ground against Notre Dame — and I think it can — the Irish will have to send help. And that gives Smith opportunities. In the biggest game of the season, he’ll make plays. He’s just that good.
Bet Jeremiah Smith anytime first-half TD scorer (+175 via bet365)
Jim Knowles vs. Mike Denbrock
For Notre Dame to win, quarterback Riley Leonard is going to have to play the game of his life. That’s just not an encouraging spot to be in if you’re Notre Dame’s offensive coordinator.
Figuring out ways to attack this Ohio State defense is tough. Denbrock doesn’t really have the collection of receivers to try and go after Ohio State’s corners. He doesn’t seem to have a fully healthy Jeremiyah Love, either. Coach Marcus Freeman said earlier this week that Love will be “full go,” but Love has averaged 3.7 yards per touch since busting that 98-yard run against Indiana in the first round. He also doesn’t have a seasoned option at left tackle to protect Leonard against what will be the best defense he has seen all season.
Ohio State ranks third nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play allowed. Texas and Notre Dame are the only 2 teams that are better. Safety Caleb Downs is a wrecker. The ends, as we’ve previously gone over, have been outstanding in the Playoff. And the secondary has been really good at taking initial reads away and forcing quarterbacks to hold onto the football.
Leonard can move the ball with his legs if his first option isn’t there, but what does Denbrock scheme up to try and alleviate what will be an aggressive Buckeye pass rush?
I don’t know the answer to that question. But I do know that part of Notre Dame’s Playoff success to this point has hinged on being outstanding in third down. The Irish were 7-for-13 on third down against Indiana and then 11-for-17 on third against Penn State. They were not great in the regular season on third down, and they really struggled in the Georgia game, going 4-for-14.
It just so happened that Love was a non-factor in the Georgia game, the Irish faced an average third down with 7-plus yards to go, and the offense only produced 16 points. Games against Indiana and Penn State featured third-down tries that needed fewer than 6 yards to convert.
Notre Dame has to win the early downs. That’s tough to do against Ohio State.
Bet Notre Dame team total under 20.5 points (-158 via FanDuel)

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