At most shops, Notre Dame opened as a 9.5-point underdog in the College Football Playoff National Championship against Ohio State. That point spread would correlate with a 24.5% win expectancy. If you got the Irish +9.5, good on you; the number was quickly bet down. Now, it sits just above the key number at DraftKings (7.5) while other shops have Notre Dame still priced as an 8.5-point dog. Just under 60% of the bets placed on the spread at DraftKings have been on Notre Dame.

The opening number was curious. For weeks, we wondered if Vegas would catch up to just how much better Ohio State was playing since the Michigan loss. Against Tennessee, it was a 7.5-point favorite and won by 25. Against Oregon, it closed as a 2.5-point favorite and won by 20. And then against Texas, the Buckeyes closed as a 5.5-point favorite and won by 14.

Now it seems the market has overcorrected. After Ohio State’s worst showing of the CFP (by far), they are getting 2 scores against a Notre Dame team that has covered a remarkable 11 straight games.

Now, it costs a premium to back the Buckeyes. And that has led so many to shift in favor of the Irish.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has these 2 teams separated by 1.8 points on a neutral field. The Irish have a 44.7% chance to win the game, according to ESPN analytics, which would roughly translate to a 2.5-point spread. Bill Connelly’s SP+ — which has long labeled Ohio State as the best team in the land — predicts a 5.9-point difference between the 2 teams. Sagarin believes there’s a 2.5-point difference between the sides. Kelley Ford’s ratings — which predicted this exact title game prior to the start of the CFP — have Ohio State and Notre Dame separated by 2.3 points.

So, most of the major power models are leaning in 1 direction. Vegas is leaning the opposite. Why? Is there something the models are failing to account for in this game? Or have we finally hit that premium price we wondered if we’d get earlier in the CFP?

This year’s national title game takes place on Jan. 20 (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. With a week still to go before kickoff, here’s what I’m looking at in this matchup.

Related: Before the title game arrives, check out our guide on the top Ohio betting apps and get signed up to win some money on the final college football game of the 2024 season. For DraftKings users, here’s a DraftKings Ohio promo code to get you going. 

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame odds

Spread: Ohio State -8.5

Total: 45.5 points

Moneyline: Ohio State -365, Notre Dame +285

via FanDuel

Ohio State’s goal-to-go defense

After a pair of pass interference penalties, Texas had the football, goal-to-go, from the Ohio State 1-yard-line with 3:56 to play in the fourth quarter of last Friday’s Cotton Bowl. In a 7-point game, a national championship was quite literally hanging in the balance.

On the first-down play, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian went to a heavy package with Jerrick Gibson at tailback and the Longhorns’ rushing attempt up the gut got stone-walled for no gain.

On the second-down play, Sarkisian called a toss sweep for Quintrevion Wisner that was immediately blown up by Ohio State safety Caleb Downs and stopped for a 7-yard loss.

That Texas drive, despite producing a first-and-goal from the 1, resulted in 7 points for Ohio State and effectively ended the Longhorns’ season. Ewers was sacked on fourth down, Jack Sawyer jarred the football loose, and etched his name into Buckeye lore forever with an 83-yard scoop-and-score.

In a “gotta have it” situation on third-and-8 and then fourth-and-8, your options are limited as a play-caller — particularly when you can’t protect the quarterback with any degree of consistency. But Sarkisian wasn’t skewered for his third-down play-call or his fourth-down design. He was shredded for tossing the football 5 yards back from the goal line on second down.

But this was a clear point of emphasis from Texas. Sarkisian believed he couldn’t win going right into the gut of the Ohio State defense, so he planned to introduce pace and space and just hoped Wisner could find a crease.

Sarkisian’s decision wasn’t a panic one. It was one born out of film study. Texas is not the first team that has failed miserably in a goal-to-go situation against the Buckeyes this season.

In 15 games, Ohio State opponents have a combined 29.6% success rate on goal-to-go plays.

They have averaged 1.2 yards per play.

They have a 66.7% run rate and a 38.9% success rate on those run plays.

This was not a one-off. Oregon was denied in a goal-to-go situation in the first meeting. Nebraska was turned away in a 4-point loss on Oct. 26. Penn State was turned away in a 7-point loss on Nov. 2. Michigan was turned away multiple times.

Opponents have managed 12 touchdowns from 54 plays run inside the Ohio State 10.

This is a problem spot for Notre Dame, which has been ruthlessly explosive via the ground game and remarkably lethargic via the air. The Irish are in the seventh percentile in explosive pass rate (per Game on Paper). They only have 5 completions all season that have gained 40 yards or more. (Will Howard has 5 in 3 Playoff games, for comparison.)

There may not be a ton of explosives to be had on the ground against Ohio State, which has only given up 12 runs all year that gained more than 20 yards. More likely than not, Notre Dame is going to have to sustain drives and find ways to score in the red zone.

Sark’s second-down play was controversial, but putting that play’s failure entirely on the play selection discredits the work Ohio State’s defense has done all year when backed into the proverbial wall. If Notre Dame is unable to hit for some of those huge gains that have presented themselves in the earlier rounds, we might get another game that is decided in a phone booth.

Notre Dame’s man coverage

Among cornerbacks with at least 100 snaps in coverage this season, Notre Dame’s top 4 guys — Christian Gray, Leonard Moore, Jordan Clark, and the injured Benjamin Morrison — have 4 of the 9 highest rates of snaps spent in man coverage. All 4 are in man more than 60% of the time. Notre Dame loves to put those guys on islands and trust their ability to hang with their men.

Texas presented the exact opposite. Jahdae Barron and Malik Muhammad were in man coverage on less than 18% of their snaps this season. Against Ohio State, 97% of Barron’s coverage snaps were in zone and 100% of Muhammad’s were in zone.

The Longhorns rolled coverage toward Ohio State star Jeremiah Smith and flummoxed the Buckeye pass game. After Smith ripped through the first 2 defenses he faced in the Playoff, he was held to 1 catch for 3 yards on 3 targets. He was clouded, doubled, jammed, and effectively removed from the game.

Ohio State aided in this with a gameplan that, for the first time during this postseason, was far less creative.

“Did Texas provide the blueprint for slowing down Jeremiah Smith?” That’s a question that has been asked in the days since the Cotton Bowl. Perhaps. But I’m not sure it’s a plan Notre Dame can really implement.

The Irish would be significantly altering what they do and asking their corners to do something they haven’t done much of this season in what will be the biggest game of their lives. That’s just not going to happen. Defensive coordinator Al Golden has no reason to fundamentally change a pass defense that ranks No. 1 in quarterback rating allowed, No. 1 in EPA per dropback, and No. 1 in success rate allowed.

“When we see man [coverage] against any of our receivers, we’re going to take a shot down the field,” Smith said with bravado prior to Ohio State’s game against Oregon.

The Ducks heeded that warning shot and played predominantly zone, but Smith still found holes and created space with outstanding route-running.

Notre Dame’s health on the line

Starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp will miss the national title game after suffering a high-ankle sprain against Penn State. The Irish are already without their top-choice center and their heart-and-soul nose tackle.

Right guard Rocco Spindler is expected to play after getting hurt against Penn State as well. Charles Jagusah is back in the rotation after tearing a pec muscle in fall camp. Notre Dame has options on the offensive line, but at what point does too much become too much? Tosh Baker replaced Knapp in the Orange Bowl and had what PFF graded as his worst game of the season — by far.

Notre Dame offensive line coach Joe Rudolph could start Baker at tackle and Jagusah inside for Spindler if Spindler isn’t quite 100%. If the latter is healthy, though, Jagusah could be in line to start at left tackle — where he was expected to be prior to that fall camp injury.

Jagusah’s reps in the Orange Bowl were his first of the season. He had a fine game, but I’d expect Ohio State to try and overload his side to see if there’s any rust, should he start. (And they might do the same if it’s Baker at left tackle given the Penn State tape.)

After rarely blitzing through the first 2 CFP games — 9.1% of Nico Iamaleava’s dropbacks, 9.6% of Dillon Gabriel’s — Quinn Ewers was blitzed on 32% of his dropbacks. The Buckeyes have been good of late at breaking tendency and keeping teams guessing about who’s doing what in the back end of the defense. Gabriel notably looked lost in the Rose Bowl. And Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard has been bad this season when pressured.

His completion rate on pressured dropbacks is 41.6%, per PFF. He’s averaging 3.8 yards per pass attempt with 6 turnover-worthy throws.

On the other side of the line, Howard Cross III hasn’t been able to make much of an impact since returning from a multi-game absence. He has just 4 tackles in 3 CFP games. He didn’t register a single quarterback pressure against Penn State.

The Irish hoped his return would provide a shot in the arm. Instead, they got 1 lineman back and lost another in Rylie Mills.

This is a small defensive line. Gabriel Rubio, who replaced Mills in the starting 11 against Penn State, is 6-foot-5, 316 pounds. Cross is 6-1, 288. Everyone else is sub-280. That hasn’t mattered yet. Will it against Ohio State?

Will Howard’s dropbacks

After 2 of the best games of his career in the first 2 rounds of the Playoff, Howard came back down to earth a little more in the Cotton Bowl. He still completed 24 of his 33 passes for 289 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and he posted a third consecutive game with a 90.0 QBR or better. But he also had 2 turnover-worthy throws after none in the first 2 games. And he only attempted 2 passes more than 20 yards downfield after taking 9 combined shots in the first 2 games.

Texas kept a lid on the top and never really let Howard take it off. The one time Texas got burned, it decided to blitz a corner off the edge of the formation with 29 seconds remaining and gave up a 75-yard touchdown on a screen pass. The extra man never got home and the screen went right to the spot he vacated. Remove those 75 yards and Howard has a 6.7 yards-per-attempt average with a pick.

This becomes the seminal spot for Howard. When he was brought to Columbus, the question was could he be the guy to win you the national championship? I’m still not sure he’s a quarterback who can beat a great defense by consistently dropping back.

Against this secondary, Howard needs to play clean. The Buckeyes should be able to move the ball on the ground against a mediocre run defense (90th in rushing success rate allowed), so Howard should be able to operate from play-action plenty.

Jeremiyah Love’s knees

Notre Dame’s electric tailback had a 98-yard rushing touchdown against Indiana.

Since that run, he has 27 touches for 101 yards in 11 quarters of action. That’s an average of 3.7 yards per touch. Love was a complete non-factor against Georgia, with his longest run going for 5 yards. After sporting a massive knee brace in practice for the Sugar Bowl, Love was more involved in the Orange Bowl but failed to produce an explosive.

When healthy, he’s a home run hitter who can run away from someone or leap over them. He’s just not healthy. Like with the line situation in South Bend, that health hasn’t impacted the bottom line yet in the CFP. Does that continue against Ohio State?

“J-Love is good to go,” coach Marcus Freeman said on Sunday. “J-Love will be full go.”

Favorites and the CFP

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff will feature a national final between an 8-seed and a 7-seed. Under the old format, the eventual national champion wouldn’t have even made the field.

Expansionists cheer from the rooftops.

That being said, this CFP has been nothing if not chalky. Favorites are 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread. The only outright loss by a favorite came in the Orange Bowl, when Penn State flipped from a 1.5-point dog to a 1.5-point favorite shortly before kickoff. Notre Dame opened as the favorite in that game.

In 10 years of the 4-team CFP, favorites were 7-3 SU in the national championship game. Favorites were 6-4 ATS in the title game. Clemson smashed Alabama in the 2018 national title game despite closing as a 5.5-point dog. Since, favorites are 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in the title game.

Notre Dame and the natty

Marcus Freeman has rapidly rewritten Notre Dame’s ethos. The Irish are likable. And the program that couldn’t win the big one has now beaten the SEC champion and the Big Ten runner-up in back-to-back weeks.

Ohio State is the last hurdle. This is the program’s first national championship game appearance since 2012, when it went into the BCS title game ranked No. 1 and trailed Alabama 28-0 at the half.

Notre Dame lost that game 42-14. It gave up 529 yards, lost the turnover battle, and averaged 1.7 yards per carry in the game.

Everyone outside of Columbus is hoping for a different tenor of game next Monday. Irish fans want a win. Neutral observers want a decent game.

Unfortunately, we just haven’t really gotten many since the implementation of the BCS system. Of the 26 national title games since the 1998 season, 17 of them have been decided by 10 points or more. The average margin of victory is 16.7, with the last 6 national title games all being decided by 15 points or more.

How I’m betting the game

Notre Dame has to play this a very specific way to win the football game. Unfortunately for the Irish, there are a number of game scripts that end in an Ohio State blowout. The Irish aren’t equipped to win through the air. They need to play keep-away and manage the game with their rushing attack. But if the corners can’t hold up against Ohio State’s receivers in man coverage, the Buckeyes are going to be playing on the front foot. Similarly, if Notre Dame gets pushed around by Ohio State at the line of scrimmage, TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are going to have big days.

I’m playing Henderson’s rushing prop at over 60 yards (+100 via DraftKings). I think Notre Dame’s size/injury situation becomes a problem against the Buckeyes and Henderson will be able to break away for a few key runs.

I’m taking the over on the 45.5-point total (-110 via ESPN Bet). Notre Dame is going to have to score to keep up, and I think offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock found something with Aneyas Williams out of the backfield against Penn State that he can build on for Ohio State. Similarly, Chip Kelly, with 10 days to prepare an offensive gameplan, should be able to scheme some stuff up for Jeremiah Smith. As previously stated, I think the ground game will be effective for Ohio State, which will help open things up for Will Howard.

Finally, I’m taking an alt spread and playing Ohio State -9.5 (even via ESPN Bet). Ohio State is the best team in the country, it is the healthier team, and it has won every CFP game by double digits so far. Notre Dame has been an exceptional story, but I think it ends in disappointment for the Irish. Ohio State just has too many weapons.