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ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome of every game on Ohio State’s 2024 schedule
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Ohio State is entering the 2024 season with huge expectations as it looks to get back to the College Football Playoff and compete for a national championship.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has published game-by-game projections for Ohio State’s 2024 slate. The Buckeyes will face a 9-game conference schedule this year that includes a high-profile trip to Eugene to take on Oregon.
Here’s a breakdown of FPI’s win probabilities for every game on Ohio State’s schedule:
- Aug. 31: vs. Akron — 98.7%
- Sept. 7: vs. Western Michigan — 98.2%
- Sept. 21: vs. Marshall — 96.4%
- Sept. 28: at Michigan State — 91.5%
- Oct. 5: vs. Iowa — 87%
- Oct. 12: at Oregon — 34.5%
- Oct. 26: vs. Nebraska — 91.4%
- Nov. 2: at Penn State — 50.8%
- Nov. 9: vs. Purdue — 93.3%
- Nov. 16: at Northwestern — 87.8%
- Nov. 23: vs. Indiana — 94.6%
- Nov. 30: vs. Michigan — 74.2%
Add all those win probabilities up and you get a projected win total of 9.9 wins. Rounded to 10, that would likely be enough to get Ohio State into the College Football Playoff — but possibly not enough to earn a spot in the Big Ten title game.
That would surely be a disappointing outcome for many Buckeyes fans. Ohio State is entering the year as one of the favorites to win the national championship. The Buckeyes are +380 to win it all over at DraftKings, only trailing Georgia at +300. Ohio State’s regular-season win total has also been set at 10.5 with the over shaded to -150.
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Ohio State is a favorite per FPI in all but 1 game this season: at Oregon. That matchup with the Ducks on Oct. 12 is likely to carry major implications for the Big Ten Championship Game — and thus the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State is also a slight favorite in what is a virtual toss-up against Penn State on Nov. 2. Ohio State has won 7 consecutive games in this series, with Penn State’s last win coming back in 2016 in State College.
Per FPI, the Buckeyes have at least 85% win equity in 9 of their 12 regular-season contests. Ohio State has a 74.2% chance to beat Michigan at home in the regular-season finale, per the model.
Ryan Day’s team will kick things off against Akron on Aug. 31.
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Spenser is the news manager at Saturday Road and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.