Fresh off its bye week, Ohio State is ready to dive into the meat of its Big Ten schedule. And here’s the thing — at the end of the day, the road to the conference title still goes through Columbus. OSU’s loss to Oregon might have seemed to open up possibilities within the league, but will it really amount to much? Here’s a significant advantage OSU holds over each remaining Big Ten contender.

Iowa: Offense

Purdue showed what we all know. That while Iowa does have one heck of a defense, when that defense stops forcing turnovers and short fields, the Hawkeyes are in trouble. Iowa is dead last in the Big Ten in total yardage (311 yards per game, barely more than half of OSU’s conference leading 563 yards per game). Iowa is 13th in the conference in rushing yards per game (117) and 13th in yards per carry (3.1). Their passing game is better, but it’s 10th in the conference in yardage, 11th in QB rating, and at 9 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, doesn’t inspire much fear.

Iowa has survived off defense and a +12 turnover margin, largely predicated on forcing 21 turnovers, far above the rest of the conference (12 is the next best total). But OSU doesn’t have turnover problems. The Buckeyes’ 5 offensive turnovers is second only to Michigan for the least in the league. Meanwhile, the difference between State’s defense (20.5 points and 387 yards per game allowed) and Iowa’s (14.6 points and 301 yards per game allowed) isn’t anywhere near as big as the chasm between the two offenses. Iowa would probably have to go +3 or +4 on turnovers to have a shot against OSU.

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Penn State: Running game

Penn State has lived and died (and mostly lived) by QB Sean Clifford this year. When he went down against Iowa, the Nittany Lions were almost completely unable to move. Clifford’s long-term health is still an open issue, but Penn State has to hope he’s good to go in Columbus on Oct. 30. Because without him … phew.

Penn State is 11th in the Big Ten in rushing yardage (129 yards per game) and averages a pedestrian 3.7 yards per carry. Its top rusher for the season, Keyvone Lee, has 38 carries for 204 yards and 0 touchdowns. Ohio State has 3 backs with more rushing yardage than Lee, and 4 with more touchdowns. OSU’s 6.2 yards per carry serves notice that even if CJ Stroud were slowed down or out entirely, Ohio State has other weapons. PSU, not so much.

Michigan State: Pass defense (and/or schedule)

The Spartans lead the Big Ten in sacks, but they’re also last in the Big Ten in passing yardage allowed, surrendering over 285 passing yards per game. MSU has also allowed 28 plays of 20+ yards this year, which is 10th in the conference. They’re 12th in 3rd down conversion defense, allowing opposing offenses to connect on 38% of their attempts. This isn’t a good look for a defense that will face Stroud, Olave, Wilson and Smith-Njigba among others.

Michigan State’s schedule is also brutal. The Spartans will face 4 ranked teams in their final 5 games, including 3 currently in the top 7 (granted, OSU will play 3 in the top 9). For a team that has struggled to put away Nebraska and Indiana, though, that’s not good news.

Michigan: Turning opportunities into touchdowns

One of the great misleading stats of the season is this: Michigan is the most efficient offense in the B1G in the red zone, in terms of scoring. On 25 of 26 red zone opportunities this season, the Wolverines came away with points. But it’s misleading because of this — only 16 of those scores were touchdowns. That 61.5% red zone TD rate is much more pedestrian. By comparison, OSU turns 77.3% of its red zone trips into touchdowns.

That issue shows itself in other ways. Michigan leads the Big Ten in made field goals with 12. But does anybody really WANT to lead the league in making field goals? Michigan is second in the conference in scoring, but they’re still 10 points a game behind the Buckeyes, in no small part because of those red zone trips that became 3s instead of 7s. Kicking field goals won’t beat Ohio State.