Ohio State: 5 marks for the Buckeyes to hit on Saturday against Oregon

Oregon is coming to Columbus, and even if both teams were a little askew in Week 1, this is the kind of matchup that makes college football compelling. It’s tempting to say that OSU has more on the line than Oregon, but honestly, it’s probably the Ducks who could least afford an early stumble. How can OSU take care of business? Here are 5 goals for OSU to reach on Saturday to ensure that the Buckeyes move to 2-0.

1) Rush for 200

It’s an arbitrary number, sure, but in 2020, OSU rushed for 200+ yards in every game except one — the national title loss to Alabama. Last week against Minnesota? 201 rushing yards. The Buckeyes are now 21-0 under Ryan Day when they reach 200 rushing yards (and 3-2 when they don’t).

Meanwhile, under Mario Christobal, when opponents rush for 200 yards, they are 5-2 against the Ducks. Incidentally, the two teams that rushed for 200 and didn’t win (Cal in 2018, UCLA in 2020) were -3 and -4 in turnovers in those games. Only twice in Ryan Day’s tenure in Columbus has OSU gone worse than -1 in a game, and those were a pair of -2 games, one being Clemson in 2019.

2) Have a 70+ yard receiver

There is one statistical oddity between OSU’s only 2 losses under Ryan Day. Despite passing for 320 yards against Clemson in 2019 and 194 against Alabama in 2020, no one receiver had more than 69 receiving yards (Chris Olave vs. Alabama).

Either Olave or Garrett Wilson, sometimes both, topped more than 100 receiving yards individually in every other game of the 2020 season.

And while there seems to be no real reason why this issue would matter, it’s worth noting that OSU had 24 or more first downs in every win of 2020, and only 19 in their only loss. Of course, both Olave (117 yards) and Garrett Wilson (80 yards) topped the 70-yard mark in the first game of 2021. For that matter, super freshman TreVeyon Henderson had a 70-yard reception.

3) 6+ tackles for loss

A note from Week 1 — Minnesota’s offense was surprisingly successful against the Buckeyes, largely because it avoided negative plays early in the game. Ohio State had just 4 tackles for loss, which helped Minnesota pile up 24 first downs, including an 8-for-14 performance on third-down conversions, which was better than OSU’s 4-for-8 mark.

All of this allowed the Gophers to run the ball 50 times and eat over 38 minutes of clock. This Oregon team is not a Marcus Mariota team or even a Justin Herbert team. Anthony Brown threw 24 passes for 172 yards against Fresno State. Oregon’s best chance is to run with CJ Verdell and Travis Dye and try to eat clock like the Gophers did. Ohio State can greatly diminish that possibility by keeping Oregon behind the sticks via a much better production in tackles for loss.

4) 3+ sacks

OSU managed just a pair of sacks of Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan — but one of those was a strip-six for the Buckeyes defense that all but sealed the win. Last season, OSU was 4-0 when it managed 3 or more sacks, and of the other 4 games, in three of them the Bucs watched opposing QBs pass for 491, 464 and 400 yards.

Given that OSU’s secondary was fairly pedestrian in Week 1, an important part of helping them develop will be getting enough pressure with the front seven that Oregon can’t play throw and catch all day. Whether it’s being more aggressive with the blitz or depending on more one-on-one dominance (like Zach Harrison on the play mentioned above), OSU needs to bring the heat.

5) 328+ passing yards

This stat really doesn’t have any strategic importance. But despite playing in the pass-happy PAC 12, Oregon didn’t allow more than 321 yards passing in any game in 2020. In fact, only twice in Mario Christobal’s 3 seasons have the Ducks allowed more than 327 passing yards — a pair of 2019 games with Washington State and Arizona State. If the Buckeyes are going to win, they might as well make a statement with their passing game.