Ohio State passed an enormous test on Saturday, winning at Penn State in comeback fashion. The Buckeyes moved up to No. 3 in the Associated Press poll on Sunday.

But of course those are not the rankings that count most.

We just hit October but it’s never too early to assess the race for the four College Football Playoff spots. Even if it is, we’re doing it anyway.

If OSU runs the table and wins the Big Ten championship undefeated, there’s no way the Buckeyes won’t make the CFP semifinals. No team in a nine-game conference schedule has gone 9-0 in the regular season and won the conference title in the CFP era, so the first team to do it is a cinch for the playoffs.

A lot of other teams have the same aim — there are 10 undefeated teams remaining in Power 5 conferences, plus independent Notre Dame. But what are their chances, and how will it affect Ohio State? You can check ESPN’s Playoff Predictor to see how the computers churn out the numbers. I like metrics to an extent but this is a gut feeling on how teams rate in terms of CFP consideration one month before the first CFP rankings.

Here is our look:

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The true threats

Alabama: Well, no kidding. The defending national champions look better than they did last year and even in a conference as loaded as the SEC, nobody else appears to be on the Crimson Tide’s level. Chances of CFP: 90 percent

Clemson: The Tigers suddenly looked vulnerable after nearly losing to Syracuse on Saturday. But that defensive line is still as good as it gets and the ACC is frankly not that good. Chances of CFP: 70 percent

Ohio State: The Buckeyes have some questions to answer on defense for sure. But how many quarterbacks remaining on their schedule are good enough to ask those questions? The next four weeks are resume-padding time. Chances of CFP: 60 percent

Georgia: The problem for the Bulldogs is that the West Division is so good that the SEC Championship game will be a major mountain to climb. UGA also has to be wary of Kentucky and maybe Florida. Chances of CFP: 40 percent

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish might have found a quarterback in Ian Book, and already own impressive wins over Stanford and Michigan. A trip this week to Virginia Tech might be the biggest hurdle left. Chances of CFP: 35 percent

Oklahoma: The Sooners don’t have anything close to a signature win yet, but a clash against suddenly resurgent Texas looms this week. The season finale at West Virginia could be huge. Chances of CFP: 35 percent

Keep an eye on

West Virginia: The Mountaineers have been somewhat under the radar except for stud quarterback Will Grier. Oklahoma is the king of the Big 12 unless somebody else proves otherwise but, again, WVU will get the Sooners in Morgantown. Chances of CFP: 25 percent

LSU: That win at Auburn was impressive but I’m still not quite there with this team. The offense is unlikely to score enough points in the long run and the Tigers must face Georgia and Alabama in a three-week span. Chances of CFP: 15 percent

Nice story, but nah

North Carolina State: The Wolfpack likely would not even be unbeaten had their game against West Virginia not been canceled. An Oct. 20 trip to Clemson will end their dreams. Chances of CFP: 10 percent

Colorado: So the Pac-12 still has an unbeaten team, huh? The league looks so far behind the other Power 5 conferences that it’s hard to notice. I still think Stanford or Washington are a better bet, albeit longshots, but since the Buffs are here … Chances of CFP: 5 percent

Kentucky: The Wildcats have been one of the best stories in college football, starting 3-0 in the SEC for the first time in forever. A tricky trip to Texas A&M awaits this week, though, and Georgia looms on Nov. 3. Chances of CFP: 3 percent

Rest of the field

There are one-loss teams worth considering such as Penn State, Washington, Auburn and Miami. Perhaps even Michigan or Stanford could rise up with a well-timed upset. But the odds are steep and any team in this bunch will need major help. Combined chances of CFP: 12 percent