It’s not easy being the big guy. Sure, you’ve got all the obvious advantages. Everybody knows who you are. Most people are at least a little intimated by your history and tradition. But there’s a target that goes on the back of the big guy. Goliath. Wilt. Ohio State? OK, that might be pushing it.

The Buckeyes are a 19-point favorite over a conference foe in the top 10. But in case anybody needed more convincing, here’s why the Buckeyes will beat the Spartans.

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1) History repeats itself

As the author of a recent column that suggested that OSU/MSU is actually the REAL B1G rivalry that OSU/Michigan is supposed to be, this is a little embarrassing. That said, OSU has won the last 4 games in this series by a total score of 160-31. The Buckeyes have 27 of the last 34 wins in the series. While nobody is disputing the fact that the past doesn’t necessarily forecast the present, the trend is pretty clear.

2) The Spartans can’t stop the pass

As MSU prepares to go up against CJ Stroud and the nation’s most dangerous passing attack, they can’t draw much consolation with their prior pass defense. Not only did the Spartans allow 536 passing yards to Purdue in their lone loss of the season, but they also allowed 406 to Michigan, 388 to Miami, 350 to Maryland and 488 to Western Kentucky. They are, by far, the worst passing defense in the country (329 ypg allowed). Not exactly a trend they’ll enjoy with Ohio State’s offense averaging  354 passing yards per game.

3) But Ohio State can at least slow Walker

Michigan State’s hopes doubtlessly center on running back Kenneth Walker III. The Heisman candidate has 1,473 rushing yards, 17 touchdowns, and a 6.5 yards per carry average. But the good news for the Buckeyes is that after struggling horribly against the run in the season’s first 2 weeks (203 rushing yards for Minnesota, 269 for Oregon), the Buckeyes have locked it down. In 6 of the ensuing 8 games, OSU held opponents under 100 yards rushing, and the high total for any opponent since Oregon is Nebraska’s 113. Yards per carry allowed since Oregon? Here’s the running total: 2.6, 1.9, 3.6, 1.6, 0.9, 1.1, 3.3, 4.8. Most of those numbers look more like Bluto Blutarski’s grade point average in Animal House than an opponent’s recipe for a B1G victory.

4) OSU has avoided turnovers

A nearly 3-touchdown underdog has to count on some help in the turnover department to pull an upset. But OSU isn’t likely to provide much help. In 10 games, Ohio State has committed just 8 turnovers, tied with Michigan for fewest in the Big Ten. Only twice have the Buckeyes had a pair of turnovers in a game, and in 4 of their 10 games, they haven’t had any. OSU is unlikely to start fumbling or lobbing ill-advised interceptions, and MSU could use a couple.

5) Third down thunder

Ohio State is one of the nation’s top third-down offenses, converting 63 of 118 tries, which is a 53.4% success rate (actually, 4th best nationally). That’s bad news for a Michigan State defense which is ho-hum on third downs, allowing conversions on 40.2% of opposing third downs (11th in the Big Ten). Ohio State’s third-down defense isn’t great at getting off the field either, but MSU’s third-down offense is about as average as possible, converting 39.3% of attempts (8th in the conference). So not only can’t the Spartans count on easy turnovers, but they also don’t have a brilliant outlook on third down conversions on either side of the ball.