
Ohio State football: Good news/bad news and a prediction for the Iowa game
Ahead of Saturday’s matchup with Iowa, here’s a good news/bad news picture for the Buckeyes … and a game prediction.
Good news: Iowa only rushes for 2.6 yards per carry
Bad news: Iowa only allows 3.0 yards per carry
This is the rub of the Hawkeyes in many ways. If the game of football consisted entirely of offense, Iowa might be subject to European football-style relegation. But on the other hand, if the game consisted entirely of defense, Iowa would be, well, Iowa. Iowa rushed for 87 yards — TOTAL — against Michigan and Illinois. But of course, the other side of the coin is that they held those teams to 36 points combined, which kept those games close.
Good news: Iowa allows 3 sacks per game
Bad news: Iowa QB Spencer Petras has improved
So not only doesn’t Iowa run well, it doesn’t protect the passer. But QB Spencer Petras — who averaged under 5 yards per attempt in Iowa’s first 2 games — has come along. Against Michigan, Petras threw for 246 yards and a touchdown, and he managed a season-high 8.7 yards per pass attempt the week before against Rutgers. While Petras won’t be mistaken for Bryce Young or CJ Stroud, he is playing better now than he did to open the season.
Good news: Ohio State allows the fewest tackles for loss in the Big Ten
Bad news: Iowa is one of the Big Ten’s leaders in making tackles for loss
While Ohio State has given up just 17 tackles for loss, Iowa has made 37. At 6.17 per game, that’s 4th best in the Big Ten. While Iowa’s defense is led by linebackers Jack Campbell and Seth Benson, the defensive line has done an excellent job of making negative plays. Sophomore Lucas Van Ness has 6 tackles for loss, including 3 sacks.
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Good news: Ohio State is coming off a bye week
Bad news: Iowa is also coming off a bye week
The double bye week is unusual, but any advantage Ohio State gained is at least negated. Another odd tidbit of the series is that while Ohio State controls the overall history, 46-15-3, the last meeting was an Iowa beatdown, 55-24, in 2017. Ryan Day, who was offensive coordinator at the time, called the loss “a scar that won’t go away” earlier this week. On the first play of that game, Ohio State threw a pick-6.
Good news: Ohio State stands to return a ton of injured players
Bad news: Maybe the guys behind them really were doing better?
Look, even the glass-half-empty club would have trouble finding issues with the potential return of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and healthy (or healthier) versions of TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, among others. But the truth is that the alleged reserves have been outstanding, and if Ohio State should fear anything, it certainly hasn’t been a lack of depth. If anything, reintroducing more players into the mix could alter the dynamic of an Ohio State team that’s been on cruise control.
And the prediction
Yes, Iowa is a good defensive team, better than any Ohio State has yet faced. But it’s not THAT much better. Iowa is 4th in the Big Ten in total defense, just ahead of Rutgers and Wisconsin. The same Rutgers and Wisconsin against which Ohio State scored 49 and 52 points, respectively.
Meanwhile, this Iowa offense is bad. Not just less than stellar. Bad. Halfway through the season, the Hawkeyes are almost 100 yards PER GAME below the 13th best offense in the Big Ten. In half of their games, they’ve scored 7 or fewer points.
It’s hard to imagine a situation where Iowa can clutter and ugly up this game to a point where it would be competitive in the second half. CJ Stroud will reach 300 yards passing by early in the 3rd quarter. Whichever Ohio State back plays will rush for 100 yards. The Buckeyes may elect to rest Jaxon Smith-Njigba as things play out. The season will get much more intense next week. But for this week …
Ohio State 49, Iowa 6