Ohio State headlines ESPN's Playoff Predictor, given best odds to win title
Ohio State continued its domination with a 73-point outburst against Maryland while Penn State suffered its first defeat of the season in Week 11.
After earning the No. 1 spot on the initial College Football Playoff Rankings, the Buckeyes did not suffer any letdown against the Terrapins. There may have been some concern about a distraction from Chase Young’s suspension, but Ryan Day’s squad was locked in from the jump.
For the Nittany Lions, three costly turnovers by Sean Clifford doomed their hopes of an undefeated season with a loss to Minnesota. That loss doesn’t immediately end their season, but it puts Penn State on thin ice with a narrow margin for error moving forward.
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RELATED: Week 12 Associated Press Poll: Hoosiers end 25-year drought, three B1G teams in Top 10
On Sunday, ESPN updated the Playoff Predictor with Ohio State still leading the nation. The Buckeyes are given an 89% shot to make the Playoff, just ahead of LSU at 87%. Ohio State is also leading the nation with a 40% chance to win the National Title. Penn State is still alive, hanging in at 11% on the Predictor.
Remarkably, Alabama’s loss to LSU and Minnesota’s win against Penn State did not register much of an impact. The Crimson Tide are still fourth in the nation in odds to make the Playoff, just ahead of one-loss teams in Oregon and Georgia.
Unfortunately for the Gophers, they are still not even registering in the top 10 for the Predictor despite a 9-0 record. There are currently six one-loss teams in the top-10:
Updated college football playoff chances from the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Not only is Alabama very much still alive — it has the fourth-best chance to reach the CFP and win the national championship. pic.twitter.com/hPXwkHGrpZ
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) November 10, 2019
Seth Walder also shared ESPN’s strength of record standings with LSU leading the way. According to the SOR metric, the average Top-25 team had just a one-percent chance to equal LSU’s 9-0 mark against their schedule. Ohio State was second at 16%.
Minnesota was interestingly fourth on the SOR metric at 23%. While the CFP Committee may say Minnesota has not played anyone, the Gophers rank ahead of Clemson, Penn State, Auburn, Oregon, Florida, and Alabama, all teams that were ranked ahead of Minnesota on the CFP entering Week 11.
Here’s the SOR Top 10:
LSU leads Strength of Record and it isn't close.
An average top-25 would have had just a 1% chance to be undefeated at this point vs. Tigers' schedule.
Same team would have had a 16% chance to be undefeated vs. Ohio State's, or a 29% (!) vs. Clemson's. pic.twitter.com/SOqSHg4UcD
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) November 10, 2019