Now that he's officially starting, here are some realistic expectations for Justin Fields

Now that Justin Fields is officially the man in Columbus — like there was any doubt — I thought it would be appropriate to talk about some of the realistic expectations facing the second-year quarterback in Ryan Day’s offense.

What will his weaknesses be? Where will he thrive? What kind of numbers are realistic for him?

I’ll tackle all of those questions, and not as someone who simply watched a YouTube video of him in high school as a 5-star recruit. I’ll tackle those questions as someone who wrote and still covers the SEC, and as someone who witnessed Fields’ 4th and 11 fake punt debacle that in my opinion, played a part in him leaving Georgia.

So, let’s get to it:

Where he’ll succeed

It might sound basic, but if there’s one thing I’m not worried about with Fields, it’s about him making big-time throws downfield. Like, we’ll have moments where it looks like he’s standing calmly and comfortably in the pocket waiting for something to open up, only to deliver a 50-yard strike right into K.J. Hill’s arms on a moment’s notice.

Fields’ arm is next level already. So is his confidence. If there’s any concern that someone who doesn’t have many reps is going to feel pressure when it’s not there, need not worry. If anything, Fields’ issue will be thinking he can outrun every defensive end he sees. But this is the spot for strengths.

Fields can absolutely use his legs to make plays. Unfortunately for him, that’s essentially all he was asked to do in Jim Chaney’s system last year.

(I realize that’s also on Fields because Jake Fromm wasn’t going to lose his job unless he played his way out of it so all they could do with the freshman was bring him in for change-of-pace packages.)

Fields is far superior to Dwayne Haskins as a runner (he averaged 6.3 yards per carry as a true freshman). We’ll get reminders of that when plays break down. The escapability will at the center of some highlight-reel plays. But as for designed runs? I’m not sure Fields will get a ton of those.

I can’t help but think one of the selling points for Fields to come to Ohio State was watching how much Haskins got to throw. Fields grew frustrated with his role as a relatively one-dimensional quarterback. Having said that, I think Fields will appreciate Day’s offense and he’ll welcome those chances to run if needed.

Where he could struggle

This is pretty simple, too, but it’s the ability to read defenses and take what the defense is giving to him. Even Tua Tagovailoa struggled with that last year. Haskins, on the other hand, was extraordinary in that area. He could check down and be content to take an 8-yard gain instead of risking a turnover at a key point in a game.

Because of what he was asked to do at Georgia, Fields still needs to show those skills in obvious passing situations during high-pressure sequences that he can make the smart play.

My worry with him isn’t necessarily his brain or how quickly he’s going to process things. It’s that in this “how do you like me now” season, he takes a few too many risks. Whether that’s holding on to the ball too long or trying to make something out of nothing, Fields can be baited into those mistakes.

Those are coachable mistakes. Day will recognize that weakness if and when he shows up. The challenge is making sure it doesn’t cost Ohio State in a crucial moment in B1G play.

Because everyone loves stats…

Let’s talk numbers. That’s probably what you want, right? Four. That’s a number. That’s probably not the number you’re looking for.

Some realistic numbers for Fields sound better? Ok.

• Accuracy — 64-66%

My thinking? He was a 69% passer at Georgia last year, albeit with a smaller sample size. My assumption is that number comes down a touch as he gets actual throwing opportunities. Haskins was at an absurd 70% last year, partially because he did take a lot of high-percentage throws, which I’m not sure Fields will take as many of. Haskins was also just a more accurate quarterback. Day should be able to scheme open some big throwing windows for Fields to make him one of the more accurate passers in the country.

• Passing touchdowns — 35-40

Do we really expect him to hit a 50-burger like Haskins? Probably not. Goodness, that dude was good. Can Fields hit a 50-burger? I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. But this is about the realistic expectations, which means 35-40 is the conservative estimate. And for what it’s worth, only five Power 5 quarterbacks threw for 35 touchdowns last year. Even if Fields is on the lower end of that — I’d still take the over with all of that talent at receiver back — that would still be an extremely solid year for a first-time starter.

• Passing yards — 3,800-4,000

Again, this is conservative. Jordan Ta’amu and Ryan Finley were in that range last year. Eight Power 5 quarterbacks hit 3,800 passing yards and Haskins, Kyler Murray and Garnder Minshew were the only ones to hit 4,000. All of them played in pass-heavy offenses with elite offensive minds, but they also had defenses who had their share of struggles (none finished in the top 40 nationally). Fields’ passing yardage numbers would take a hit if the Buckeye defense improved and didn’t have Purdue or Maryland-like showings.

• Rushing yards — 500-600

I actually might be a touch high on that just because Fields can absolutely rip off a 40-yard touchdown run if he sees single coverage without a spy. But I’m keeping that relatively low for the aforementioned reason that I truly believe he wants to show the world he can throw after how he was used at Georgia. If that’s the plan, the designed runs will be extremely limited and he could have plenty of games in which he’s only at 20-30 yards on the ground. Ohio State doesn’t need him to run like a J.T. Barrett because one, Day isn’t Urban Meyer and two, he can move the ball better than Barrett. Oh, and three, J.K. Dobbins is a thing.

So what kind of year should we expect Fields to have?

A really good one. Duh.

The weapons around him are phenomenal. Haskins’ season with Day certainly bodes well for someone like Fields, who has more overall talent than Haskins, but obviously isn’t as polished or proven.

There are concerns about a young offensive line getting up to speed, as well as the aforementioned issue with taking what the defense is giving him. I do worry that there could be some tough moments with Fields where he throws multiple interceptions and has to bounce back after a brutal performance.

But at the same time, I’ll say this. I argued a couple months ago that at 11-1, Fields is a super intriguing Heisman candidate. Part of that is because of the odds. He can definitely follow the Heisman narrative and lead Ohio State to a Playoff berth, especially if the Buckeyes improve against the run. Is that my way of saying Buckeye fans should expect Fields to be in New York for the Heisman presentation? No. “Expect” is the wrong word. “Realistically hope for” is what I’d go for.

What Haskins did last year might’ve been under-appreciated nationally because of Tagovailoa and Murray, but Ohio State fans loved how calm and reliable he was throughout 2018. I do think Fields has some maturing to do in that regard, as many second-year players do.

But by season’s end, I’d be surprised if Fields wasn’t on the short list of best quarterbacks in college football … and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t considered the top returning signal-caller for the 2020 season.