Ryan Day is at a crossroads. And while the Cotton Bowl is important for many reasons, that game alone is not going to do much for the noise surrounding Ohio State’s head coach.

Already, Day’s 2023 season has ushered in a set of unprecedented circumstances for the head coach. And those circumstances are not limited to the 3-game losing streak to Michigan.

Ever since coming to Ohio State in 2017, Day had never seen a quarterback controversy during his time with the Buckeyes. Program legend JT Barrett was entrenched as the starter for the 2017 season, and every decision Day made from 2018 onward turned up aces.

In the 2018 season, Day (then the OC) and head coach Urban Meyer went with Dwayne Haskins as the starting QB. He would go on to set multiple single-season and single-game records for the program before becoming a first-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

After that, Day hit the portal and landed instant impact performer Justin Fields from Georgia. Fields produced a pair of dynamic seasons with top-10 finishes for the Heisman Trophy and also joined the NFL as a first-round pick.

Ultimately, the QB battle ahead of CJ Stroud’s redshirt freshman season was the first big decision of Day’s head coaching career. However, it’s now clear that choice was always one that would be hard to get wrong.

With Stroud now lighting up the NFL as a star-studded rookie, all the offseason attention leading up to 2023 was once again on Day and his QB. That offseason battle centered around Kyle McCord and Devin Brown, though the expectation was always the winner of that battle would light up college football like his Buckeye predecessors.

In the end, McCord’s experience won out, and the junior went on to have a solid season while leading the team to an 11-1 record. However, things never fully clicked offensively with the Buckeyes finishing 32nd nationally in scoring, by far the lowest mark of Day’s tenure in Columbus.

Already, Day has (understandably) faced questions related to that initial decision with McCord now off to Syracuse via the transfer portal. And there appears to be a certain level of optimism for Devin Brown as he prepares for his first start in the Cotton Bowl.

Whether or not Brown plays well remains to be seen, but what isn’t unclear is that Brown’s performance will do little to ease the pressure facing Day heading into 2024. But, for our purposes, let’s outline a couple of scenarios for the Cotton Bowl and the likely reaction for Ohio State’s head coach.

Scenario No. 1 — Devin Brown balls out as Ohio State beats Mizzou

I will not spend time haggling over what a specific stat line for Brown might look like in the Cotton Bowl. But let’s assume he plays well, scores a couple of touchdowns himself and leads the Buckeye offense to a strong outing — and a win — against the Tigers in his first career start.

That would seem to be the best-case scenario for Ryan Day and would help ease concerns heading into the offseason. Right?

Not entirely.

Remember for a second that the Buckeyes arrived at this position because McCord won the initial QB battle to begin with. But if Brown plays well against a top-10 opponent, what does that say about Day’s decision-making?

That will indeed be the angle if Brown plays well with fans left wondering why he wasn’t the starter all along. It’s even more difficult to understand why Brown was not the starter when Day and Xavier Johnson spent part of their Cotton Bowl presser raving about Brown’s leadership and charisma with the offense.

Don’t get it twisted: The next scenario — one where Brown struggles — will be infinitely worse for Day heading into 2024. But watching Brown thrive in the postseason would leave fans scratching their heads at Day’s assumed loyalty to McCord entering the 2023 season.

Scenario No. 2 — Brown struggles, commits multiple turnovers in Cotton Bowl loss

Let’s imagine for a moment the flip side of the Cotton Bowl where Devin Brown struggles in his first career start. Facing a talented opponent, he completes around 50% of his passes with a bad pick (or two) or gives up a fumble on a sack.

Though fans do not want to hear it, that type of outcome would be somewhat understandable. Brown has the talent, but plenty of talented players have faced much lesser opponents than Missouri and struggled in their first start.

What would Brown’s struggling mean for questions surrounding Day? Well, it would solidify Kyle McCord was indeed the right choice as the starting QB, but it would be a disastrous outlook for the head coach and the program entering the 2024 season.

Without McCord, Ohio State currently has all its eggs riding on Brown or the emergence of Lincoln Kienholz or 5-star freshman Air Noland. It would also be a second straight season with a first-year starter for the program.

It would also magnify Ohio State’s current decisions in the transfer portal. A number of talented (and experienced) QBs have already entered and exited the portal with new destinations for the 2024 season, but none of those players ever received even a hint of being connected to Ohio State.

It’s always possible a player that fits the Buckeyes hits the portal in the spring if a QB need arises. Still, there’s no denying or getting around the fact Day has banked the immediate outlook for the 2024 season on Brown’s work leading up to the Cotton Bowl. Any faltering from the QB against the Tigers will crank up an already tense situation for Day in Columbus.