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Here’s the scenario in which Ohio State could make the Playoff over Oklahoma if both teams win
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Based on what we saw from the selection committee on Tuesday night, it’s clear that Oklahoma’s résumé stacks up better than Ohio State’s heading into conference championship weekend. Add in the fact that Oklahoma will face a higher-ranked team than Ohio State and it’s easy to assume that the Buckeyes will need some help to make the field this weekend.
I agree with that.
If both teams win by, say, 14 points on Saturday, the selection committee would have to do a complete 180 to put Ohio State in ahead of Oklahoma. I highly doubt that happens.
By the way, that’s also assuming that Alabama beats Georgia because in my opinion, the Tide already punched their Playoff ticket.
So is it pretty cut and dry then? Is it simply, Oklahoma loses, Ohio State wins and the Buckeyes are in? Maybe, but there’s a different scenario that comes to mind that could play out.
Yes, obviously style points count. The 2014 Ohio State squad showed us why the more lopsided the conference title victory, the better the chances the borderline team makes a jump. Duh.
But the scenario that I find interesting is what happens if Oklahoma allows 40-plus points yet again. That is, the Sooners win a game 48-45 and we’re again wondering why a team that essentially plays one side of the ball is getting a chance to play for the national championship. It’s the same anti-Oklahoma argument that’s been made all year.
Even in this age of high-powered offenses, consider this. No team has made the Playoff having allowed 40 points in a game more than twice this season.
On Saturday, Oklahoma will try to avoid its fifth straight game of surrendering 40 points and sixth overall in 2018.
Will that matter to the selection committee? Perhaps. At the very least, it puts doubt as to whether Oklahoma is worthy of making the field as a team unlike any who have made the field before it.
And it’s not like Ohio State has been the ’85 Bears — ranking No. 57 in scoring defense with athletes like that screams “mediocre at best” — but there’s still the chance that the selection committee can be swayed by the more complete team on Saturday.
If the Buckeyes put up a goose egg and win something like 40-0, there’s no louder message to the selection committee than the one they closed the year on. It would suggest that they’d at least not let up a billion points to Alabama, which seems like a lock if Oklahoma got matched up against the Tide.
Is that my way of saying Ohio State is absolutely better than Oklahoma if that happens on Saturday? No. My opinion is not important in making that distinction. What is important was that before that Michigan game, the Buckeyes were at No. 10 for a reason. Of course, no Playoff team has ever overcome that big of a gap that late in the season.
They’re also still obviously trying to become the first team to make the field with a loss by more than 23 points. That’s surely a weekly topic of conversation in those meetings. At least it should be. Ohio State’s downside looks lower than any team that’s been a Playoff contender this late in the season.
The likely scenario is that something has to give on Saturday. We’ve also never seen a 1-loss Power 5 conference champ get left out of the field, which suggests multiple things could give on Sunday.
Well, maybe nothing has to give. Let’s not forget that it was Texas who won the first matchup with Oklahoma and it was Northwestern who came up 3 points short of going unbeaten in B1G play.
Um, well, I guess in that scenario, UCF would be the most likely team to make the field, in which case, something would definitely give.
On the bright side for Ohio State, life could be so much worse right now. The Buckeyes are coming off their best game of the season and will play in their second straight B1G Championship as significant favorites. Playoff or not, that shouldn’t be ignored.
Ohio State fans, can you imagine being stuck at home after losing to Michigan and watching the Wolverines play in the B1G Championship knowing that they could make the Playoff for the first time? That scenario was avoided.
The scenario Ohio State will try to avoid this weekend is reverting back to its habit of playing down to inferior talent (and well below it against Purdue). It was the “yeah, but” in yet another 11-win season under Urban Meyer. If the Buckeyes are left out of the field with a conference title in hand yet again, they’ll have nobody to blame but themselves.
But the door is at least open. Ohio State will just need a little help from Tom Herman to get through it.
Oh, the irony.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Tradition. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.