
The one and only concern I would have as an Ohio State fan right now
Ohio State couldn’t have gotten off to a better start.
I’m saying that as someone who criticized not only the weak non-conference schedule, but I also predicted that the Buckeyes wouldn’t win the division this year (who I picked instead of OSU is irrelevant and totally not worth reminding me about).
For my money, Ohio State has looked like the most complete team in the country so far. The defensive improvement combined with the efficiency of Justin Fields are the basis behind that argument. That’s incredible for a team with a first-time head coach and a first-year starting quarterback.
I mean, seriously. It’s hard to picture a much more ideal start. Fields has a 16-0 touchdown-interception ratio for the 5-0 Buckeyes, who have an average margin of victory of 44 points. That’s a full touchdown better than Alabama.
Oh, and in case things couldn’t be any better for Buckeye fans, Michigan is making everyone who picked them to win the conference look foolish.
(Again, that’s not worth reminding me about.)
So what on earth should give OSU fans concern these days? Well, there is one thing. And yes, it’s early, but it’s worth getting ahead of.
What Fields is doing right now is reminiscent of what Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence did last year. It’s got shades of what Jameis Winston did in 2013, and what Jalen Hurts did in 2016. It’s even like what Dwayne Haskins did for the Buckeyes last year. Fields is having a burst-onto-the-scene, take-no-prisoners start to his career.
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Yes, it’s a “start” to his career because Georgia bringing him in for the occasional play to “jumpstart the running game” was far from utilizing Fields’ entire skill set. That much we (and Georgia fans) know by watching what he’s done so far in Ryan Day’s offense.
But like what Haskins, Tagovailoa, Lawrence, Winston and Hurts all experienced was the kickback. Once teams got a book on them after promising starts, they had a back-to-earth period. Lawrence is in his right now. Tagovailoa experienced his at the end of last year. Even Haskins went through it in late-October into November last year.
Life is more difficult on you when there’s a big enough sample size break down a player. For Tagovailoa, elite defenses took away the deep ball. They forced Tagovailoa into bad throws, and he wasn’t willing to take the underneath routes that defenses were giving him. That resulted in more sacks taken, more forced throws and ultimately, a halt to Alabama’s absurd offensive season.
That time is coming for Fields. Maybe it won’t be as dramatic as Tagovailoa’s seemed to be, but there’s going to be a period where teams just look much better prepared to face him. And with the defenses that are on deck, there are plenty of options (FBS scoring defense rank):
- Oct. 6: vs. Michigan State (No. 14)
- Oct. 18: at Northwestern (No. 43)
- Oct. 26: vs. Wisconsin (No. 1)
- Nov. 9: vs. Maryland (No. 57)
- Nov. 16: at Rutgers (No. 109)
- Nov. 23: vs. Penn State (No. 2)
- Nov. 30: at Michigan (No. 32)
So of the 7 defenses that Fields will face, 5 of them are in the top third of the country in terms of scoring defense. Three of them are in the top 15, beginning this weekend against MSU.
The good news for Fields is that all 3 of those matchups will be in Columbus.
The possible area of concern for Fields is running into defenses with athletes who have front sevens who can track him down (much easier said than done).
As I always, always, always mention with Fields, he has “supreme physical confidence” (and just a ton of actual confidence). That means he actually doesn’t do what most first-time starters do. That is, get skittish in the pocket and feel pressure even it’s not there. Fields is the opposite. He hangs, hangs and hangs until he has to make a last-second move with a pass-rusher closing in on him. It can be a really good thing at times.
Look at this play:
What a throw here by Justin Fields on the run back across his body 😳 pic.twitter.com/V5ttPUf0k5
— Buckeye Videos+ (@BuckeyeVideos) September 29, 2019
You can’t teach that.
It can also be a not-so-great play against an elite defense. Again, those are coming.
The main takeaway from this play? Justin Fields holding the ball too long and getting sacked.
But also look at Jonah Jackson deliver a hit on the defensive end mid-spin move. He likes to be a punisher.
What we can learn from 11 plays in Saturday’s game: https://t.co/2FFjxxWOtb pic.twitter.com/EsWriUAa2I
— Colin Hass-Hill (@chasshill) September 10, 2019
Where do Ohio State’s remaining foes rank in FBS in sacks per game? I’m glad you asked:
- MSU: No. 18
- Northwestern: T46
- Wisconsin: No. 20
- Maryland: No. 17
- Rutgers: No. 117
- Penn State: No. 8
- Michigan: T92
So that’s 4 of 7 teams who currently rank in the top 20 in sacks per game. In other words, Ohio State is going to see some elite pass-rushers coming up here. Between Kenny Willekes, Yetur Gross-Matos and Zack Baun, Fields is going to see a handful of guys who can flat out take over a game.
And remember that as teams and coordinators start to get a read on Fields’ weaknesses, him being confused by coverages could also lead to sacks.
I realize that this might sound like nitpicking. To a certain extent, it is. Fields has been phenomenal. He’s been everything that Ohio State fans hoped he’d be, and everything Georgia fans feared he’d be. There are few players in the country playing at the level he is. With all that Fields can do not only as a passer but as a runner, he might be the most difficult B1G quarterback for an opposing defense to game plan for that we’ve seen since … pre-injury Braxton Miller?
Fields is on a 13-game pace to do things that even Miller couldn’t do (60 total TDs, 3,416 yards from scrimmage). Will he slow down at some point? Probably.
But even if that happens, it’s hard to see much standing in the way of the Buckeyes’ path to another B1G Championship.