The Ultimate Cotton Bowl Playoff Preview: Ohio State has achieved liftoff. Can Texas bring the Buckeyes back to Earth?

Everything — and we mean everything — you really need to know about Friday night’s College Football Playoff Semifinal collision between Ohio State (-5.5 per FanDuel Sportsbook) and Texas in the Cotton Bowl.

The expanded, 12-team College Football Playoff is only a few weeks old, but one thing is already apparent: It’s reshaping the parameters of what a championship season looks like in real-time.

Take Ohio State. In any previous season, under any previous system, the 2024 campaign would have been branded a catastrophic failure on Nov. 30, the date of the Buckeyes’ latest and greatest humiliation at the hands of rival Michigan, and that brand would have stuck forever. It was the kind of defeat, historically, that you cannot come back from. Beyond extending the losing streak to the Wolverines to 4, it also eliminated Ohio State from the Big Ten Championship Game, and certainly from any argument that it was 1 of the 2 or 4 best teams in the country.

The $20 million roster; the decorated senior class that returned en masse explicitly to beat Michigan; the head coach who looked on helplessly during the postgame melee on his own field, asking a random passerby “what happened?” – an enduring portrait of failure. In that moment, it was a classic case of a championship-or-bust season that went decisively, spectacularly bust.

In any year but this one, that would have been the end of the story. No redemption arc, no second chance, just a perfunctory bowl game, an empty trophy case, and a long, cold offseason to reckon with the fallout. Part of that reckoning very likely would have involved forcing Ryan Day and his lofty winning percentage in Columbus to walk the plank, permanently cementing his fate as the John Cooper of his generation: A winner who never won the ones that really mattered. The ’24 Buckeyes, a roster loaded with former 5-stars and future draft picks, would have joined the ranks of underachieving outfits that never played up to their potential, were never as good as the sum of their parts, and ultimately weren’t worth the hype or the investment.

Instead, well, here we are. Not that anyone in the state of Ohio has forgotten about Michigan, or that Day isn’t going spend the next 11 months being reminded about it. But he is still going to be in Ohio in 11 months, because the expanded Playoff has given the Buckeyes a Christmas gift that few other wounded juggernauts have ever received: The chance to be the team they were supposed to be all along. Their first-round win over Tennessee, a 42-17 romp against a bright-orange backdrop in Ohio Stadium, was their most complete performance of the year, a start-to-finish beatdown on both sides of the ball. Their second-round win over Oregon, a 41-21 massacre in the Rose Bowl, was even better — an exhibition of offensive firepower and defensive dominance that made a mockery of the Ducks’ No. 1 ranking on the sport’s most revered stage. Ohio State led 31-0 barely 20 minutes into the game, matching its point total in its midseason loss in Eugene in less than a quarter-and-a-half.

The effect has been a little disorienting. Suddenly, a team only a few weeks removed from having its season dashed against the rocks turns out to have perfect timing, not only winning and advancing in the postseason, but looking like the best version of itself in the process. What is the context for that? The Kansas City Chiefs? A talented 2-seed in March Madness? The cycle of deflation and reinflation is part of the natural rhythm of other sports’ seasons. In college football, it’s going to take some getting used to.

Meanwhile, Ohio State still has 2 more games to go to complete the cycle, or else face a whole new round of disappointment with its own distinct flavor. In some ways, coming up short this close to the crown would leave almost as sour a taste as missing the cut altogether.

Notre Dame clinched its spot in the national title game on Thursday night. Friday night, Texas or Ohio State will punch its ticket. Will it be the Longhorns or Buckeyes? Let’s dive in …

10 best players on the field

In the pocket: Can Texas protect Quinn Ewers?

Texas’ o-line is downright grizzled, boasting a combined 184 career starts among the starters. For the most part, they’ve looked like it: Per Pro Football Focus, Quinn Ewers faced pressure on a lower percentage of his total drop-backs this season (26.6%) than any other SEC starter except Georgia’s Carson Beck. Ewers, to his credit, contributed to his self-preservation, thanks to a quick trigger in the pocket and a willingness to throw the ball away when a play is nerfed. (A good habit for a guy with limited mobility and no business trying to get too creative.) But the line has been a strength, especially for a unit that doesn’t feature a single transfer. Go back and watch the protection on Ewers’ gotta-have-it, 4th-and-13 touchdown strike to force a second overtime in the Longhorns’ win over Arizona State in the Peach Bowl: The communication, poise, and textbook execution against an all-out blitz look is a testament to having a bunch of guys up front who have been playing alongside each other for years.

The glaring exceptions to “the most part,” predictably, were the ‘Horns’ 2 losses to Georgia. In the first meeting in October, Texas was abused in the trenches, yielding 7 sacks and 3 forced fumbles on an astounding 25 QB pressures. (That included a couple of ill-fated series with Arch Manning in the lineup at the end of the first half, on which Manning was under duress on nearly every snap. This has been your mandatory Arch Manning Mention.) The front didn’t fare much better in the rematch in the SEC Championship Game, giving up 6 sacks on 17 pressures. Five of the Longhorns’ 7 giveaways in those 2 games — 3 strip-sacks in the first meeting, 2 interceptions by Ewers in the second — were the direct result of Georgia’s pass rush turning up the heat.

It’s worth noting that Texas was shorthanded in the rematch, in which All-American left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. was a game-time scratch due to a gimpy ankle. Banks was the most decorated lineman in the country, picking up unanimous All-America notices as well as both of the major big man awards, the Lombardi Award and Outland Trophy. Pro scouts will be zeroed in on his reps opposite Ohio State’s long-tenured, highly productive edge rushers, JT Tuiomolaou and Jack Sawyer, both of whom have been feasting in the postseason: Between them, they’ve chalked up 7.5 sacks on 25 pressures in the Buckeyes’ 2 CFP wins alone. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, even if Banks is healthy and up to the task, he can only block one of them at a time. The starting right tackle, Cameron Williams, was the weakest link in both losses to UGA, and his return to the lineup is still uncertain due to the same knee injury that sidelined him against Arizona State.

On the ground: Feast or famine?

Texas has been a decidedly run-first team over the second half of the season, and occasionally a dominant one. Since the start of November, the ‘Horns have run for 200+ yards in 4 of their past 7 games, including a couple of master games on the ground against a couple of blue-chip defenses, Texas A&M and Clemson. They churned out 244 yards rushing (excluding sacks) in College Station, the vast majority of that total coming via sophomore Quintrevion Wisner after halftime, and 309 yards in their first-round win over Clemson, a joint effort by Wisner and Jaydon Blue. That’s the most rushing yards the Tigers have allowed in a game since they were on the wrong end of a legendary performance by Todd Gurley the 2014 season-opener at Georgia.

In the same span, though, the ground game has also run into a couple of brick walls. Even with sack yardage subtracted, Georgia stoned the Longhorns in the SEC title game, holding them to 58 yards and 3 first downs on a dismal 2.6 per carry. OK, Georgia is Georgia, and Texas was playing without its bellcow left tackle. But after gashing Clemson, they found the going just as tough against Arizona State, finishing with 68 yards and 4 first downs on 2.5 per carry. The long run against the Sun Devils netted 7 yards.

That won’t cut it against Ohio State, which has been consistently solid against the run, and occasionally dominant itself. The only 2 teams that managed to eclipse their season rushing average against the Buckeyes are the 2 that beat them: Oregon at midseason (163 yards on 5.1 per carry) and Michigan (172 on 4.1 ypc). Everybody else took their lumps, including Oregon in the rematch, where the Ducks finished with a grand total of 33 rushing yards on 1.6 per carry. Add in the sack yardage, and the official number was well into the negative range. At a minimum, the ‘Horns needs to generate enough space to move the chains, chew the clock, and set a deliberate pace in the early going in order to keep the entire playbook open. Otherwise, they might look up at halftime and discover the scoreboard has made the choice for them.

Down the field: Can Ohio State limit YAC?

One of the oddities of Texas’ statistical profile is the fact that the Longhorns rank fairly highly in most of the explosiveness categories despite a relatively conservative approach to putting the ball in the air. Quinn Ewers ranked near the bottom of the SEC in both attempts of 20+ air yards and average depth of target, and led the conference in attempts behind the line of scrimmage. Yet he also tied for 6th nationally with 58 completions that gained at least 20 yards.

Both trends can be true because Ewers’ receivers are arguably the best in the country after the catch — or at least, the most productive. Per PFF, the Longhorns led all Power Conference offenses with 2,507 yards after catch, accounting for fully 60% of their passing/receiving output. Only Houston relied more heavily on YAC as a share of its total production, and only Arizona State averaged more YAC per reception.

Fittingly, the main drivers of the YAC attack were the running backs, Wisner and Blue, and ultra-reliable tight end Gunnar Helm, all of whom played a prominent role in the short passing game. Among SEC players with at least 35 targets, Wisner and Blue rank first and second in average YAC per reception at a little over 10 yards apiece — the screen game is on point — and freaky freshman wideout Ryan Wingo ranks fourth. Not that the ‘Horns lack the downfield juice to challenge opposing secondaries deep, by any means. But when Steve Sarkisian is in his bag as a play-caller, they don’t necessarily have to to achieve the same result.

Ohio State’s secondary, like most other aspects of Ohio State’s roster, is the best Texas has faced by a wide margin. All 5 starters are sure tacklers who have played a ton. The headliner, heat-seeking sophomore safety Caleb Downs, met the hype that accompanied his transfer from Alabama with room to spare, emerging as a no-brainer All-American in his first season as a Buckeye. His processing speed, sideline-to-sideline range, and closing speed make him the ideal candidate for keeping open-field gains to a minimum.

If there’s any lingering concern about Downs’ game (that’s a big if), it’s on the back end: As a true freshman at Bama, he was memorably torched in the Crimson Tide’s early, 34-24 loss against Texas, giving up 118 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions, per PFF. Of course, that was in just his second college start, and his first against a real opponent — ages ago, in developmental terms. In Year 2, Downs has yet to allow a touchdown, and has allowed a grand total of 1 reception at his expense (for a gain of 4 yards) in the past 4 games. At this stage of his career, even with another year on campus ahead of him in 2025, he’s about as NFL-ready as they come.

Best players on the field

1. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith • 90.3 PFF grade | 1,224 yards, 14 TDs | 1st-team All-B1G

2. Texas CB Jahdae Barron • 91.0 PFF | 5 INTs + 11 PBUs | All-American | Thorpe Award

3. Texas DB Andrew Mukuba • 90.9 PFF | 5 INTs + 7 PBUs | 2nd-team All-SEC

4. Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka • 80.6 PFF | 2,753 receiving yards, 24 TDs career

5. Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson • 87.0 PFF | 4,448 scrimmage yards, 47 TDs career

6. Ohio State RB Quinshon Judkins • 86.3 PFF | 4,048 scrimmage yards, 45 TDs career

7. Ohio State QB Will Howard • 84.4 PFF | 87.3 QBR | 80 TD/34 INTs career | 24-6 as starter

8. Texas LB Anthony Hill Jr. • 74.3 PFF | 107 tackles (16 TFLs) | 2nd-team All-SEC

9. Texas DL Alfred Collins • 88.1 PFF | 53 tackles (6 TFLs) | 7 batted passes

10. Texas Edge Colin Simmons • 81.4 PFF | 14 TFLs (9 sacks) | Freshman All-American

11. Texas DB Michael Taaffe • 88.0 PFF | 73 tackles (6 TFLs) | 2 INTs + 10 PBUs

12. Ohio State OL Donovan Jackson • 69.4 PFF | 37 starts | 1st team All-B1G in ’23 and ’24

In the pocket: Is this Will Howard’s moment?

Other than his head coach, no one came in for more scorn following the Michigan loss than Howard, who was picked twice against the Wolverines in his worst outing of the season, by far. That game yielded season-lows for yards per attempt, pass efficiency and Total QBR, and arguably cost Howard a trip to New York as a Heisman finalist. Instead, his only postseason recognition in the wake of the debacle was a third-team All-Big Ten nod from league coaches.

In the meantime, he’s well on his way to etching his name in Ohio State history. Howard has been lights out in the 2 CFP wins, redeeming his meltdown in The Game with the 2 best games of his career. Across both outings, he averaged 11.3 yards per attempt with 5 touchdowns, all 5 of them downfield strikes coming from 20+ yards out.

Against Oregon, he threw for 255 yards and 3 TDs on OSU’s first 6 possessions, against a Ducks secondary that came in ranked in the top 10 nationally in both pass efficiency D and yards per attempt allowed. (After that, imagine being the guy who tried to tell Howard during the postgame celebration that there was no room for him on the podium.) More than any point in the regular season, he looked like the guy the Buckeyes were banking on him to be when they rolled the dice on him as a 5th-year transfer from Kansas State.

All of the above was possible in large part because, in stark contrast to the Michigan game, Howard has barely been touched in the postseason. Neither Tennessee nor Oregon recorded a sack; per PFF, the Volunteers didn’t even manage a hit. That’s a credit to his much-maligned, injury-ravaged offensive line, which appears to have gelled after a rocky end to the regular season. It’s also a challenge to Texas’ pass rush, which has multiple sacks in 6 consecutive games. The Longhorns’ edge-rushing rotation of Barryn Sorrell, Collin Simmons and Trey Moore has been a steady source of pressure all year, and never more so than in the Peach Bowl, where they combined for 18 pressures and 3 sacks against Arizona State. On the inside, DT Vernon Broughton added 6 pressures against ASU, and also boasts the top PFF pass-rushing grade among SEC interior linemen for the season. The surest way to keep Ohio State’s explosiveness in check is to turn up the temperature in the pocket.

On the ground: How much does Ohio State need?

Ignore the numbers. The Buckeyes added Quinshon Judkins via the portal last January for one reason and one reason only: To reduce wear and tear on the injury-plagued TreVeyon Henderson. Mission accomplished. Between them, Henderson and Judkins have amounted to the equivalent of one full-time workhorse, meaning neither’s raw production leaps off the screen. The important thing is that they’ve both played in every game, splitting touches roughly evenly and leaving plenty of gas in the tank for the postseason gauntlet.

Henderson, who averaged 10.6 touches per game in the regular season and maxed out at 13, has rarely looked fresher or more explosive than he has in the CFP, accounting for 248 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 25 touches. His game-clinching, 66-yard TD sprint against Oregon in the Rose Bowl was his longest gain of the year.

Texas’ run defense has been more solid than dominant. The best opposing back the Longhorns faced in SEC play, Georgia’s Trevor Etienne, ran for a combined 181 yards and 5 touchdowns across both meetings, on 5.1 per carry. The best opposing back they faced, period, Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo, became America’s sweetheart in a grueling, MVP performance in the Peach Bowl, racking up 143 yards and 2 touchdowns on 30 carries in addition to his contributions as a passer, receiver and puker. Skattebo forced 10 missed tackles, per PFF, generating more than 80% of his rushing output after contact. Neither Judkins nor Henderson runs with anything like Skattebo’s combination of power and rage, but at well north of 210 pounds apiece they’re not shirking from the grind. It’s up to Texas to make sure they get one.

Down the field: Is there an answer for Jeremiah Smith?

Smith, the top-rated player in the 2024 recruiting class, is the rare talent capable of bypassing the “rising star” phase and ascending directly to “star,” full stop. He’s been a sensation since he set foot on campus a year ago and his practice-field highlights immediately started going viral. He hasn’t stopped since: By opening day, he was a mainstay in a crowded rotation; by year’s end, he was first among equals. Still, if his blistering turns against Tennessee and Oregon didn’t exactly comes as a surprise, they did put the entire country on alert: The next great Buckeyes receiver has arrived in full force, and he’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

Smith is already well ahead of the curve compared to his prolific predecessors at the position. Of the 9 former Ohio State wideouts currently on NFL rosters – a list that includes Terry McLaurin, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. – none of them started as a true freshman, much less inspired speculation about their draft status 2 full years before they became eligible.

Some scouts have made the case that Smith could go No. 1 overall right now, as is, at (barely) 19 years old. Julio Jones has emerged as the go-to comp for Smith’s size, fluidity, and extraterrestrial ball skills. His stat line through 14 games (70 catches, 1,220 yards, 14 TDs) in virtually identical to Marvin Harrison Jr.’s in his All-American sophomore/junior seasons in 2022 and ’23, when he was widely regarded as one the best college wideouts of his generation. His 90.3 PFF grade is tied for the best in the FBS among wide receivers with at least 50 targets; the film-eaters have credited him with 12 contested catches vs. a single drop. If there’s a box he’s left unchecked, well, he still has 2 more years to do it.

One of those boxes Smith has yet to check is “going 1-on-1 with an All-American.” He’ll get his chance on Friday night, opposite Texas CB Jahdae Barron in what might be the most intriguing dude-on-dude matchup in a game full of them.

If there’s a current corner in the college game worth betting on to hold his own against Smith, Barron is as good a candidate as any: 3-year starter, consensus All-American, Thorpe Award winner as the nation’s best defensive back, aspiring first-rounder in his own right. He picked off 5 passes, broke up 11 more, didn’t allow allow a touchdown in coverage, and allowed just 3 receptions of 10+ yards on 65 targets. For all that, he finished with the top individual PFF coverage grade of any FBS corner (91.6). He may be the last, best chance any opposing defense at this level will have again to lock Smith up before it becomes impossible. If he can’t, there is officially no hope for anybody else.

Special teams, injuries and other vagaries

Texas kicker Bert Auburn has connected on 66 career field goals, a school record, which considering some of the big-time kickers who have come through Austin is not whistling Dixie. At the moment, though, trust in his prolific right leg is running at an all-time low. Since the start of November, Auburn is an alarming 10-for-17 on field-goal attempts, and the misses have not been trivial: He missed twice in the SEC Championship loss to Georgia, and biffed 2 consecutive kicks in the final 2 minutes against Arizona State with the season on the brink — 4 high-stakes shanks that could have decided eventual overtime games in regulation.

Ohio State fans are not feeling a whole lot warmer toward their man, Jayden Fielding, who spent nearly a month in the crossfire after missing two routine kicks in the Buckeyes’ loss to Michigan, from 38 and 34 yards, respectively. (He also missed his only attempt against Tennessee, a 56-yarder as time expired in the first half, although by that point no one was in the mood to nurse a grudge against the poor kicker.) Fielding rebounded with a couple of successful field goals in the Rose Bowl, improving to a respectable 11-for-15 on the year. Notably, neither Auburn nor Fielding has hit from beyond 50 yards this season. College kickers have never been better, in general, but this is a very “college kickers” matchup in the traditional sense: No kick is too routine to take for granted.

Neither team has generated any fireworks on kickoff returns — in fact, Ohio State ranks 133rd out of 134 teams in kickoff return average, at 10.5 yards a pop — but both have scored on punt returns: Caleb Downs took a punt back 79 yards for a touchdown in Ohio State’s November win over Indiana, breaking that game open in the process, and Texas’ Silas Bolden housed one from 75 yards against Arizona State. Downs (Alabama) and Bolden (Oregon State) both had punt return TDs at their previous schools in 2023, too. Either can change the game in a blink if given a chance.

Injury-wise, both sides will arrive relatively intact with some notable exceptions on the offensive lines. Ohio State’s front has finally stabilized in the absence of its two best players, aspiring first-rounder Josh Simmons and All-American center Seth McLaughlin, whose respective injuries led to a significant reshuffling over the second half of the second half of the season. The current configuration, with longtime guard Donovan Jackson replacing Simmons at left tackle and 2023 starter Carson Hinzman back in the saddle at center, has started the past 4 games and looked great in the last 2. The Buckeyes got out of the Rose Bowl with no new injuries.

As for Texas, the only question mark is hovering over starting right tackle Cameron Williams, who has practiced this week after sitting out the Peach Bowl due to a knee injury. If he’s a scratch, his spot will be manned again by redshirt freshman Trevor Goosby, a familiar presence in the postseason in relief of both Williams and Kelvin Banks Jr. Whoever gets the nod will have one of the toughest assignments on the field opposite Tuimoloau/Sawyer.

For what it’s worth, the crowd in Arlington will almost certainly have a decidedly burnt orange bent, especially if the icy weather forecast for the DFW area affects inbound travel from the rest of the country. (As of this writing, the game is still on schedule for Friday night, although that is subject to change.) But Ohio State has actually played in AT&T Stadium more recently than Texas, in last year’s Cotton Bowl game against Missouri, and QB Will Howard has experience in the building as Kansas State’s starter in the 2022 Big 12 Championship Game against TCU. (A K-State win in overtime.) Partisan crowd notwithstanding, I think the notion that merely playing in their home state amounts to a “home game” for the Longhorns is probably overblown. But hey, when you’re the underdog, every little bit helps.

Bottom line

Both teams are nurturing the chip on their respective shoulders – Ohio State because the bandwagon was largely abandoned following the loss to Michigan, Texas as the actual underdog. The Longhorns have a beef. They’re the higher seed, they’re competitive statistically, they’re competitive in terms of overall talent, and they haven’t flopped at any point as hard as the Buckeyes did on the most meaningful date on their annual calendar. In fact, the ‘Horns made quick work of Michigan in Ann Arbor back in Week 2. They’re healthy, elite on defense, balanced on offense, boast a well-seasoned quarterback and o-line, and have no glaring weakness. (Even if they’re unsure right now about the kicker.) They’ve been here before and have remained on track to get back all season long.

On the other hand, at no point has Texas left anybody’s jaw hanging open, either. The ‘Horns have won the ones they’re supposed to in mostly routine fashion, but have not come close to a scorched-Earth performance on the order of Ohio State’s CFP wins over Tennessee and Oregon. Nor, for that matter, did they notch a regular-season win anywhere near as relevant as OSU’s wins over Penn State and Indiana. Their only two dates against a championship-caliber opponent, Georgia, ended in defeat, one of them decisively on their home field. They were 1 play from elimination against Arizona State, a double-digit underdog. With the season on the line, they have struggled to survive while the Buckeyes have thrived.

Is it possible the Longhorns have an extra gear they haven’t seen fit to engage? Sure. We hadn’t seen Ohio State at its best – or what we now know to be its best – until a couple weeks ago.

But if we’re comparing ceilings, there’s no question which one is higher.

The Buckeyes looked as unbeatable in Pasadena as their gold-plated roster suggested they should have been from the start. Texas has been a reliably good team from beginning to end. But when a great one announces its arrival, you know it when you see it.

The prediction: • Ohio State 33 | Texas 24