
An alternate universe where Penn State's blocked field goal return vs. Ohio State in 2016 never happened
There are certain plays in college football that transcend time.
Doug Flutie’s Hail Mary to beat Miami (FL), Vince Young’s touchdown run against USC, Tua Tagovailoa’s 2nd and 26 walk-off touchdown all live in college football lore as all-time great moments that defined seasons and programs.
Marcus Allen’s blocked field goal and Grant Haley’s return for a touchdown against Ohio State in 2016 will live on in a similar fashion for Penn State fans. It was a play that finally brought the Lions back to the college football forefront in the wake of the Jerry Sandusky fallout. James Franklin’s first win against a ranked team at Penn State couldn’t have been bigger, and it couldn’t have come at a better time.
Electric.
The Lions of course went on to win the B1G East, beat Wisconsin in the B1G Championship and nearly beat USC in the Rose Bowl. Franklin earned national coach of the year honors and got a hefty raise after his job security was in question a couple months earlier.
Since that play, Penn State is 22-3 (including the Ohio State game) with their lone losses coming by a combined 7 points to a trio of top-10 teams. The Lions were a preseason top-10 team despite the fact that they lost talent like once-in-a-generation talent Saquon Barkley and offensive savior, I mean “coordinator,” Joe Moorhead.
Heading into Saturday’s showdown against Ohio State in Happy Valley, I thought it’d be interesting to dig into a question I’ve had for the last year or so.
What if Allen never soared above the Ohio State offensive line and blocked Tyler Durbin’s kick back in 2016? How different would life for Penn State be?
Let’s play it out.
The rest of the Ohio State game
As you’ll recall, Haley’s return off the blocked field goal turned a 21-17 Ohio State lead into a 24-21 Penn State lead. Instead of getting blocked and returned for a touchdown, a career-long 45-yard attempt sails wide right. That keeps the score at 21-17 Ohio State with 4:30 to play.
Penn State gets the ball back looking to make it a third straight scoring drive, but needing a touchdown to take the lead. The Lions take over in their own territory against a well-rested Ohio State defense after the 5-minute drive. Penn State picks up a couple first downs with Saquon Barkley in the short passing game, but ultimately it comes up short on fourth down in Ohio State territory with just over 2 minutes to play.
Not in need of the passing game, Penn State’s pass rush skills are useless against an Ohio State team that just wants to run out the clock and escape Happy Valley with a win. With J.T. Barrett and Mike Weber, the Buckeyes get a first down and kneel out the remaining seconds.
A resilient upset attempt comes up short and the Lions lose 21-17. The talk around State College is how Franklin drops to 4-3 on the season and 1-2 in the B1G. Even worse, Franklin’s record against B1G East heavyweights Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State falls to 0-8 having been outscored by a combined 274-106.
“We’re right there,” Franklin says after the latest loss to an East contender.
But “right there” isn’t what restless Penn State fans want to hear in the middle of what looks like Franklin’s third straight mediocre season.
The rest of 2016
The latter half of Penn State’s 2016 slate proves to be much more forgiving. Without the buoy of confidence from a potential Ohio State win, though, the Lions aren’t a team that sustains week-to-week dominance. They still finish the regular season a solid 6-3 in B1G play with losses to Michigan, Ohio State and at Indiana. Franklin gets a win against Michigan State, though it isn’t considered a monumental feat against the free-falling Spartans.
Penn State’s offense improves under Moorhead, but it isn’t one of the nation’s best by season’s end. Trace McSorley’s indecisiveness allows teams to load up in the box against Barkley, which prevents the offense from always lighting up the scoreboard.
And the same defense that didn’t get a final drive to flex its muscles against Ohio State proves to be the weak link. It can’t get off the field on the road at Indiana, and lets Iowa and Michigan State put up better fights than they should’ve.
Still, it’s an 8-4 season that earns Penn State a trip to the Outback Bowl for a matchup against Florida. It marks the program’s second consecutive year with a postseason game against an SEC team in Florida. And for the second consecutive year, the Lions get off to a slow start offensively against an SEC defense loaded with NFL talent. McSorley’s comeback attempt comes up short and the Lions finish their third season of the Franklin era outside of the top 25.
Questions surround Franklin, who earned Penn State’s best regular-season win total since Bill O’Brien’s first year in 2012. Franklin shows up on virtually every preseason hot-seat list in America. Athletic director Sandy Barbour balks on any talk of Franklin’s future, and it puts all the pressure in the 2017 season.
2017 Preseason
“How many games does James Franklin have to win to keep his job?”
That headline dominates the summer news cycle as Franklin tries to block out the outside noise, as well as the lingering concern that B1G East contenders are still using the possibility of Sandusky sanctions to negatively recruit against Penn State. Frankin’s 1-8 mark against those teams doesn’t help his cries of foul play.
But inside the program, the Lions know that they’re finally ready to take the next step.
They have Barkley, a bonafide first-round lock and a preseason Heisman Trophy contender. They have McSorley, who still has a few questions surrounding his consistency but is more confident than ever in his second year in Moorhead’s system. They also return senior pass-catchers Mike Gesicki and DaeSean Hamilton, both of whom showed that they developed a late-season connection with McSorley. It doesn’t hurt that the Lions bring back 4 starters on the offensive line.
Moorhead knows that the potential is there. He makes preseason headlines by declaring, “We don’t think we’ll have the best offense in the B1G. We think we’ll have the best offense in America.”
And on defense, the Lions are in better shape to compete with the nation’s elite. They bring back 6 starters on that side of the ball — Marcus Allen leaves for the NFL instead of returning for his senior year — but they have more depth than they had to start 2016 when injuries fueled a 2-2 start.
This is Penn State’s time. It has to be.
The marquee Michigan matchup
“Is Penn State back?”
That becomes the million-dollar question both locally and nationally after Penn State guts out a win at Iowa. By the time Michigan rolls around, Penn State is in the top 15 thanks to a 6-0 start. College GameDay announces plans to visit Happy Valley for the first time in the post-Joe Paterno era.
Still, Franklin’s woeful 1-8 mark against East contenders is still there. The fact that Franklin is still searching for his first win against a ranked team isn’t lost on skeptics. Penn State looks good, but can it show against No. 15 Michigan that it can be great?
In a word, yes.
All the “right there” moments of Penn State fade in what’s easily the biggest win of the Franklin era. Not only does Penn State win on its home field, it does so by 3 touchdowns. Jason Cabinda and Co. dominate a fool’s gold Michigan offense and a pair of long runs by Barkley fuels a convincing 28-7 win.
Jim Harbaugh and Franklin share what appears to be a confrontational exchange of words in the postgame handshake that sparks controversy. Some speculate it had to do with Barkley getting carries in the final seconds of a 3-touchdown game when the Lions could’ve kneeled it.
The internet reminds us all that Harbaugh has been involved in a postgame handshake dustup before (via Indianinja95):
Barkley’s Heisman campaign reaches new heights, as does the Lions’ No. 8 ranking in the Associated Press poll.
Two days later, Franklin agrees to an extension that’ll keep him in Penn State through the 2022 season. Any hot seat talk is put to the back burner as Franklin takes Penn State to a place it hasn’t been in the post-Paterno era.
Penn State is back, or at least it seems.
The rest of 2017
But being “back” doesn’t result in a national title in 2017. The start of a grueling 3-week stretch proves to be too daunting for the Lions.
Penn State’s run game is stymied in consecutive road matchups against Ohio State and Michigan State, resulting in a pair of down-to-the-wire losses. The tough losses make some question why Barbour gave Franklin a midseason extension.
The Lions still finish the regular season 10-2, but they watch Ohio State play for a B1G title for the second consecutive year. They also miss out on a New Year’s Six bowl after a promising start and instead take a trip out West to play in the Holiday Bowl (the Outback Bowl couldn’t have the Lions in consecutive years). Barkley sits out the bowl game, but a disappointed Penn State squad still has enough offensive firepower to get past an overrated Washington State squad.
Franklin enters the offseason 2-10 against the Wolverines, Buckeyes and Spartans. Doubters point out that both of those victories came against Michigan and MSU teams that finished outside of the AP Top 25.
While Franklin still isn’t considered an elite coach nationally, his outlook is helped by a pair of top-10 recruiting classes. On top of that, he also has a third-year coordinator in Moorhead, who flirted with some head coaching job offers but didn’t rise to the top of anyone’s list just yet.
Despite the losses of Barkley, Gesicki, Hamilton and others, the prospect of returning the connection of a newly-extended Moorhead and McSorley has Penn State as a preseason top-20 team.
2018
Franklin is 4-0 coming off his best season at Penn State. He wins consecutive games against rival Pitt (or not rival?), and his team is up to No. 14 in the Associated Press Top 25. Moorhead’s stock is rising in his third year which means he’ll be tougher to keep around Penn State much longer.
If Franklin can overcome this hurdle, he’ll be in the driver’s seat to reach his first B1G Championship and Playoff at Penn State. With a win on Saturday, he’ll at least be in favorable position to get to his first New Year’s Six bowl.
The Lions enter Saturday as a 4-point underdog to No. 3 Ohio State, which is coming off a pair of B1G titles and Playoff berths. Franklin has never beat a top-10 team since arriving in 2014. And even though each of the last two matchups were down to the wire, Franklin knows finally beating Urban Meyer will show that his program is for real.
Saturday might finally be his chance to turn “right there” into “we’re here.”