Cringeworthy: At one point, ESPN's FPI had Penn State's chance of victory as close to 100 percent as possible
In the final two or three minutes of the fourth quarter of Saturday’s Penn State-Indiana game, it appeared that the Nittany Lions had a solid chance to win, leading 21-20 with the ball deep in Hoosier territory late.
According to ESPN’s FPI, Penn State not only had a solid chance but a near perfect chance. With 1:47 remaining in the fourth quarter the Nittany Lions had a 99.9 percent chance to win. You read that correctly. 99.9.
As you may know by now, Penn State did the nearly impossible and saw that 99.9 percent chance of a win turn into a loss.
It started with the Nittany Lions making the inexplicable decision of going for a touchdown late in regulation instead of kneeling the ball and ending any chance of a Hoosier comeback.
Then, Indiana marched down and tied the game with a touchdown and two-point conversion.
In overtime, Penn State’s chances of winning creeped up again after a touchdown. But the Nittany Lions turned around and gave up a touchdown and a controversial two-point conversion to lose their 2020 season opener.
While the final play may gain scrutiny, Penn State’s botching of the final minutes is just as much to blame for the season-opening heartbreak.