Crystal Ball: Predicting every game on Penn State’s schedule in 2021

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Penn State. We’ll stay with the B1G East all week. Next week, we’ll predict every game for every B1G West team. Up next: Indiana.

In an alternate universe, maybe 2020 would’ve gone much differently for Penn State. In that alternate universe, maybe Michael Penix Jr. is ruled short of the pylon and that incredible finish goes the Nittany Lions’ way instead of Indiana’s. And then maybe the season doesn’t spiral out of control, which it clearly did.

That’s not taking anything away from Indiana, Maryland and Nebraska. But there was clearly a snowball effect early on once Penn State started 0-2 and was all but eliminated from the College Football Playoff race.

Even though it finished 4-5 for its first season under .500 since 2004, Penn State outgained its opponents by 102 yards per game. This was not a bad team. Maybe a little unlucky, maybe not mentally strong enough. But not bad. The numbers tell a different story.

That’s important context heading into a season in which Penn State is ranked in the top 20 by most. This is still a team loaded with talent, with a coach who has a .661 winning percentage (no small feat considering James Franklin spent 3 seasons at Vandy).

Penn State was down in 2020, but it would be a shock to see it down again in 2021.

A full stable of weapons

No player is under more pressure than QB Sean Clifford. I expounded on this topic earlier in August, so I won’t rehash it all here. But here’s one thing working in his favor — a full complement of offensive weapons.

Remember how I said Penn State was unlucky last season? Journey Brown was expected to be one of the top running backs in college football, but he had to medically retire. Noah Cain fit the profile of one of the Big Ten’s rising stars, but he suffered a season-ending injury in the opener at Indiana. Just like that, one of the deepest running back rooms in the country was decimated before the season got going.

Now, Penn State has reloaded and really goes 5 deep at the position. Cain is back, Baylor transfer John Lovett looks like he will have a big role and last year’s leading rusher Keyvone Lee also is comfortable shouldering a big load. Devyn Ford and Caziah Holmes could also be in the mix.

The 2019 team rotated series between 4 backs for much of the first half of the season, before Cain and Brown established themselves. I could see a similar situation this season, given the depth and ability levels.

And at wideout, Clifford has Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, each of whom could go off on a given day (especially Dotson, who has established himself as one of the conference’s best receivers).

That’s all to say, Clifford should be in a much better situation in 2021. Speaking of that …

The change at OC shows James Franklin’s desperation

When you know, you know. And James Franklin apparently knew.

Firing Kirk Ciarrocca after just 1 season was perhaps the boldest move of Franklin’s tenure. Penn State averaged just 5.46 yards per play, down from the 6.05 it averaged in 2019 and 6.11 it averaged in 2018 under Ricky Rahne (now the head coach at Old Dominion). And that was well below the 2017 (6.58) and 2016 (6.51) numbers of Joe Moorhead. (But hey, your offense is going to be a little worse without Saquon Barkley. That’s just the reality.)

The hope is that new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich will bring a much-needed facelift. That means a faster pace akin to what Penn State did under Moorhead. With Yurcich orchestrating Texas’ offense last season, the Longhorns were 7th nationally at 42.7 points per game and averaged 6.65 yards per play. Yurcich has also drawn rave reviews at Ohio State and Oklahoma State and is someone Franklin had his eye on.

This looks like the perfect marriage, but then again, Ciarrocca looked like a great fit, too. There’s just too much talent on this roster to not be better, and that’s why Franklin didn’t wait around.

Last year: Blip or trend?

The main thing to watch in the big picture of this program is how it rebounds from a strange 2020 in which it had the first 0-5 start in its 134-year history. Sure, Penn State won its final 4 games to avoid a truly embarrassing season, but that didn’t ease the pain.

It’s strange to think that last year was supposed to be the year for the Nittany Lions. But Micah Parsons, the No. 12 overall pick in the NFL Draft, opted out, and then the aforementioned injuries to Brown and Cain, Pat Freiermuth’s injury and Clifford’s regression made it the worst possible outcome that it could’ve been.

Penn State should absolutely get back to being Penn State, but the schedule is brutal. The Nittany Lions drew the 2 best teams in the West (Wisconsin and Iowa) for their crossovers, and they play both games on the road. They have Ohio State on the road. They get Auburn in the non-conference slate. And even what they probably expected to be an easy win (Week 2 vs. Ball State) looks like it will be a battle as the defending MAC champions return 20 starters.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: at Wisconsin (L)

Sure, Penn State has won 4 straight in this series, but this is a brutal opener. After a season without fans, going to Camp Randall against a really good Wisconsin team is far from ideal (just like going to Indiana to open last season was difficult). There is no shame in losing at Wisconsin, but the key will be not letting it spiral like last season.

Week 2: vs. Ball State (W)

Do not sleep on Ball State. I repeat, do not sleep on Ball State. As mentioned above, the Cardinals return 20 starters and finished 2020 on a 7-game winning streak, including an upset of Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game and then a shellacking of previously unbeaten San Jose State in the Arizona Bowl. The Cardinals’ QB, Drew Plitt, is entering his 3rd full season as the starter and started games as far back as 2017! Their best wideout, Justin Hall, was first-team All-MAC the past 2 seasons.

This is tricky for Penn State since it is sandwiched between Wisconsin and Auburn. Coming off a loss at Wisconsin, this game will tell us a lot about the Nittany Lions. It’s not a typical Group of 5 snoozefest.

Week 3: vs. Auburn (W)

It’s one thing for the B1G and SEC to match up during bowl season. It’s going to be a different level of awesome to see an SEC team play in a Big Ten stadium. Beaver Stadium will be rocking. As for the game itself, Auburn has a 1st-year head coach but a veteran QB in Box Nix and one of the country’s best running backs, Tank Bigsby. As long as the Nittany Lions can contain Bigsby, they should win.

Week 4: vs. Villanova (W)

This is the revenge game Penn State fans have been waiting for. The last time these teams met, Villanova won 20-14. Granted, that game was in 1951, but still. It’s an in-state clash in which the Wildcats will be motivated. Ah, never mind, it’s not my job to promote a game against an FCS program.

Week 5: vs. Indiana (W)

OK, this is the real revenge game. It still blows my mind that Penn State lost a game in which it outgained its opponent 488-211. The last time a team gained that many yards and allowed that few in a loss was in 2004 when Oregon fell to Indiana 30-24. The Ducks committed 7 turnovers that day; Penn State only had 3 (and forced 2). The undoing was 2 missed field goals and a failure to run out the clock at the end of regulation, which led to the controversial pylon-reach from Michael Penix Jr.

Anyways, not to rehash what is probably something Penn State fans would like to forget, but this should be another great game. Indiana and Penn State are both ranked in the top 20 of the first Coaches Poll. Can Penn State’s defense contain Penix in those key moments? I think Penn State showed it was the superior team last season, and the actual result will reflect that this season.

Week 6: at Iowa (L)

I know Penn State has won at Iowa the last 3 meetings (2015, 2017 and 2019), but I think this is the year the Hawkeyes put a stop to it. Iowa snapped a 6-game losing streak to Penn State with a convincing 41-21 win at Beaver Stadium last year. The Hawkeyes had the type of season Penn State was supposed to, winning their final 6 games after dropping the first 2. Iowa was probably the second-best team in the Big Ten by the end of 2020, and I think it will continue that momentum into 2021, as long as Spencer Petras has improved.

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: vs. Illinois (W)

Both teams will be coming off bye weeks, so there is no advantage here. It comes down to what we saw in Penn State’s season-closing 56-21 win over Illinois; there is a big difference in the caliber of athletes in these programs. Penn State has won the last 3 in this series by an average of 37.7 points.

Week 9: at Ohio State (L)

This is the biggest game of Penn State’s season every year, and it’s usually a good one. Penn State is the one program that can match Ohio State at most positions in terms of caliber of athlete. The last 5 meetings have all been decided by 2 scores or less, which isn’t common for an Ohio State opponent. And 3 of those have been by 3 points or less. Will this be that close? I tend to think not, but Penn State needs to show that it’s at least comparable to Ohio State, even if it doesn’t win.

Week 10: at Maryland (W)

This is another revenge game for Penn State, which got embarrassed by the Terrapins last season. The Nittany Lions are 40-3-1 against Maryland all time, with the last loss at home in 1961. But man, losing by 16 as a 27-point favorite last season was demoralizing. I think Penn State will be ready to go for this one.

Week 11: vs. Michigan (W)

This used to be a game that showed us who the second-best team in the Big Ten was. Now, it’s not nearly as intriguing. Last year, Penn State won in the Big House for the first time since 2009. This year, the Nittany Lions make it 3 straight and 4 out of 5 against Michigan. The Wolverines don’t have anyone who can cover Jahan Dotson.

Week 12: vs. Rutgers (W)

Penn State and Rutgers have met 7 times since the latter joined the Big Ten, and the Nittany Lions have allowed a total of 29 points. That’s not a typo. Rutgers’ best day was when it scored 10 points in 2014.

Week 13: at Michigan State (W)

The Land Grant Trophy will be on the line in the regular-season finale. With the Spartans in the middle of a rebuild under 2nd-year coach Mel Tucker, this game won’t get back to being a game with major implications for a few more years.

2021 projection: 9-3, 3rd in B1G East

Is 9-3 considered a successful season at Penn State? It depends on your perspective. Coming off a forgettable 2020, some would probably say, yeah, this is great as it reestablishes Penn State as a top 20 or even top 15 program. But the other side of it would be to look at it from the perspective that Penn State likely has 4 games against ranked opponents (Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa and Ohio State), and it is only winning 1 of them, so is that really something to celebrate?

I tend to think this would be a great way to rebound. The program has a ton of talent coming in with its 2022 class, including QB Drew Allar, and this would set the proper tone for what should be another great stretch of football at Penn State.