ESPN's FPI predicts outcome of every game on Penn State's schedule

Penn State is coming into the 2024 season with very high expectations for the year.

With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams, the Nittany Lions have a golden opportunity reach the College Football Playoff for the first time ever.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has updated its projections for every game on Penn State’s schedule. The Nittany Lions will face 9 Big Ten opponents, plus a nonconference slate that is headlined by a trip to West Virginia.

Penn State will also face 3 of the 4 Big Ten newcomers during the regular season, with Oregon being the lone exception.

Here’s Penn State’s projected win probability for every game in 2024, per FPI:

Aug. 31: at West Virginia — 77.9%
Sept. 7: vs. Bowling Green — 96.3%
Sept. 21: vs. Kent State — 99%
Sept. 28: vs. Illinois — 91.5%
Oct. 5: vs. UCLA — 89.6%
Oct. 12: at USC — 62.7%
Oct. 26: at Wisconsin — 81.5%
Nov. 2: vs. Ohio State — 49.5%
Nov. 9: vs. Washington — 87.6%
Nov. 16: at Purdue — 86.7%
Nov. 23: at Minnesota — 84.1%
Nov. 30: vs. Maryland — 87%

Penn State is favored in 11 of its 12 games this season, per FPI. And the 12th game — Ohio State at home on Nov. 2 — is a virtual toss-up, according to ESPN’s model. The Nittany Lions have at least a 75% chance to win in 10 of their 12 regular season games.

Overall, FPI is projecting approximately 9.9 wins for Penn State this season. That’s slightly above or right in line with Vegas’ expectation, depending on which sportsbook you look at. FanDuel has Penn State’s regular-season win total set at 9.5 wins.

Penn State is an 8.5-point road favorite against West Virginia on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon.