ESPN’s FPI is predicting the 2022 season, and that includes forecasting when Penn State will sustain its first loss of the season.

Entering Week 5, the Nittany Lions have been on fire and have shown a lot of promise while starting 4-0. That stretch included a come-from-behind win on the road over Purdue and a dominant win over SEC foe Auburn.

James Franklin and the Nittany Lions are also getting more second-team players into action earlier than usual this season in an attempt to build depth for the stretch run. Whether that pays off or not remains to be seen.

Despite the hot start to the season, Penn State’s undefeated year is not expected to last much longer. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the team is given just a 1.3% chance of finishing undefeated with the first loss for the team likely to come early in October.

The FPI is currently projecting Penn State’s first loss to come in a visit to the Big House and is expecting the Nittany Lions to lose two games over the rest of the remaining schedule. Here is how the schedule shapes up in terms of win probability per the FPI:

  • Oct. 1 vs. Northwestern – 96.9%
  • Oct. 15 at Michigan – 36%
  • Oct. 22 vs. Minnesota – 60.3%
  • Oct. 29 vs. Ohio State – 26.1%
  • Nov. 5 at Indiana – 83.9%
  • Nov. 12 vs. Maryland – 72.8%
  • Nov. 19 at Rutgers – 87.8%
  • Nov. 26 vs. Michigan State – 77.8%