ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) predicts the outcomes of every college football game. After a wild Week 4, the predictions have been released for a loaded Week 5 slate.

Included is a prediction for a much-anticipated B1G matchup between No. 19 Illinois and No. 9 Penn State. The model sees Penn State as a big favorite, giving the Nittany Lions an 86.4% chance to come away with a victory. This means the Fighting Illini have just a 13.6% chance to get the upset in University Park.

These teams have played 27 times in history with the Nittany Lions winning 21 of those compared to the Illini winning 6. In 2023, Penn State got a 30-13 win in Illinois. The 2021 matchup between these teams is notable due to the game going to a 9th overtime. Ultimately, the Illini escaped that match-up with a 20-18 win.

Both the Nittany Lions and Illini have impressed so far in 2024. Both teams are undefeated with Illinois getting a conference win over Nebraska in Week 4 and Penn State easily getting by Kent State.

This will be the first B1G game of the season for Penn State. The Nittany Lions have wins over West Virginia, Bowling Green, and Kent State. The Illini have wins over Eastern Illinois, Kansas, Central Michigan, and Nebraska.

This will be the toughest test of the season for both teams. One area that has struggled for Penn State is the pass rush. The team is No. 113 nationally in sacks, having just 3 through 3 games. Getting pressure against Illinois could help the Nittany Lions get off to a hot start.

These B1G rivals will kick off from Beaver Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET.