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Penn State’s old Achilles’ heel is back, and it can’t continue vs. Michigan State
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When Mark Dantonio wasn’t referencing “Moana” ringtones in Tuesday’s press conference, he was talking about Saquon Barkley.
Like the coaches who have come before him, Dantonio heaped praise on to the Heisman Trophy candidate. He went so far as to compare him to NFL legend Gale Sayers. Certainly Barkley’s ability to make an impact in the return game in addition to his running and pass-catching abilities make that a fair comparison from a versatility standpoint.
From strictly a running standpoint, I’ve always liked the Adrian Peterson comparison for Barkley. Both are freaks who shouldn’t be able to do the things they do with their size. They can go 90 yards in a flash, which often tends to be the variety in which their production comes from.
For years with the Minnesota Vikings, though, Peterson ran behind a subpar offensive line. As a result, he’d often finish a game with a half dozen carries for negative yardage.
Barkley is extremely similar in that regard. We saw that on Saturday when, with the exception of that 36-yard touchdown run, he was completely bottled up by Ohio State. Take away that run and the Penn State superstar was held to eight yards on 20 carries. Nine (!) of those carries went for negative yardage (OSU had 13 tackles for loss).
While there are probably a few runs that Barkley wished that he could have back, OSU magnified a bigger problem for the Lions. Once again, their Achilles’ heel is the offensive line.
And if it continues on Saturday in East Lansing, Barkley won’t look anything like Sayers.
OSU’s defensive front is as good as there is in college football, but there’s a shocking stat about Barkley that many might not realize. In his last 11 games against Power 5 competition, Barkley eclipsed 110 rushing yards just twice. That’s it.
Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead got Barkley significantly more involved in the passing game during that stretch (he averaged just shy of four catches per game). Why? Because if he’s catching passes, Barkley doesn’t need to depend on the Lions’ shaky offensive line to make an impact.
Shaky might be an understatement.
How do we know that Barkley’s rushing struggles against Power 5 teams are the result of poor offensive line play? Simple. The numbers tell the story.
Look at Barkley’s average yards per rush before first contact in his last three games (via Pro Football Focus’ Josh Liskiewitz):
- Northwestern: 0.3
- Michigan: 5.6
- Ohio State: -0.7
So on a typical carry against Ohio State, Barkley got hit one yard BEHIND the line of scrimmage. I don’t care if you’re Sayers or Peterson. Neither of those guys are succeeding if they’re averaging negative yards before first contact.
And why was that Michigan number so high? I don’t know. You tell me.
Yes, Barkley went untouched on that 69-yard touchdown run. Devin Bush over-pursued and Barkley made him pay. But take away that run and his average yards before first contact was 1.1. As a result, Barkley had just 14 carries for 39 yards the rest of the night.
The reality is that while Barkley has been adding to his tremendous Heisman campaign, Penn State hasn’t improved on the offensive line. The Lions have actually been bad up front for most of the year. They just happened to have a superstar tailback who can hit home runs, and a mobile quarterback in Trace McSorley who also knows a thing or two about hitting home runs.
Even go back to that Iowa game when Barkley went off, and it was clear that the Lions won in spite of poor offensive line play. McSorley was harassed by the Hawkeyes defensive front and they needed Barkley to make some stunning plays to make guys miss just to squeak out a last-second victory.
The troubling thing is that there’s not help on the way. Penn State lost Ryan Bates in the second half against OSU when Barkley rolled up on his leg. It was an ugly sight to see from the Lions’ best offensive lineman.
Barkley roles up onto Ryan Bates’ left leg. He was able to walk off under his own power pic.twitter.com/rSvzRG5fXk
— The Daily Collegian (@DailyCollegian) October 28, 2017
Franklin hasn’t updated Bates’ status, but he did make sure to say that backup Chasz Wright “needs to play well this week.”
He’ll absolutely need to play well against a Michigan State defense that’s been extremely stout against the run. Fresh off a week in which the Spartans held the B1G’s No. 8 rusher of all-time Justin Jackson to just 41 yards in 17 carries, they’re now ranked No. 4 in FBS against the run.
No tailback has run for 70 yards in a game against MSU all year. By the way, the Spartans faced the likes of Jackson, Akrum Wadley and Notre Dame star Josh Adams. Barkley is still the most talented of that bunch, but his offensive line certainly isn’t any better than the units those backs ran behind.
So what does that mean for Penn State? Should Moorhead just have McSorley throw the ball 40 times and make Barkley’s presence felt more in the passing game? That probably wouldn’t be a bad idea.
The more likely scenario is that Barkley is still going to get around 20 carries, with the hope that he capitalizes on a mistake once and he takes it to the house. That’s what he did against Ohio State. The Lions did still put up 38 points against a very good defense on the road.
But Penn State simply needs to be better up front on Saturday than it’s been the last month. If it isn’t, MSU is more than capable of grinding out a 20-17 win and ending any sliver of Playoff hope that the Lions have left.
That would make this Saturday even more painful than the last.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Tradition. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.