Penn State end-of-season stock report: Questions, concerns hang over program despite 10-2 record
Penn State has axed 1 coordinator but desperately wants to keep another. That offense-defense dichotomy explains the outlook for Nittany Lions football going forward.
Nothing that was going to happen Friday night in Detroit was going to change that. But for the record, Penn State produced a solid all-around game in a 42-0 victory against overmatched Michigan State at Ford Field, home of the NFL’s Lions.
That result solidified what even the most casual of Penn State fans already knew: After a 2nd straight 10-2 regular season, James Franklin’s program ranks a solid 3rd in the Big Ten as currently constructed. The problem, of course, is that the 10th-year Lions coach and most fans aren’t satisfied with the prospect of remaining behind Michigan and Ohio State in perpetuity. And next season, Washington, Oregon, USC and UCLA join the conference, with Penn State playing all but Oregon. Making the 12-team Playoff will be far from a sure thing for the Lions.
Franklin needs to dance a 2-step over the next couple of months: Find a replacement for Mike Yurcich who can soothe wounded egos, jazz up the attack and sell the program’s 4- and 5-star offensive talent on a future worth sticking around for. And at the same time find a way to keep hot head-coaching candidate Manny Diaz, who in 2 seasons has done for the defense exactly what is needed on the other side of the ball.
The offense became more and more boring and less and less effective as the season went on, leading to the firing of Yurcich 1 day after a 24-15 loss to Michigan. That loss came 3 weeks after a 20-12 setback to Ohio State, as Penn State fell to both of the power 2 of the B1G East for a 3rd straight season. Yurcich’s scheme in both games was so bland that it made it appear he — and therefore Penn State as a whole — wasn’t trying.
So brace for an eventful bowl season/offseason, Nittany Nation. In the meantime, let’s take stock of the program with a look back and a look ahead.
Season’s biggest surprise: Run game woes
For a while, the run game was ploddingly effective. But easy yards were nearly impossible to come by before Friday night, and Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are off pace from their sensational true freshman seasons.
Singleton finally had his first 100-yard game this season against the Spartans, going for 118 yards and a TD. Allen topped 100 for the 2nd time, going for a season-high 137 yards, including a team season-best 50-yard jaunt.
Singleton is averaging 4.3 yards per carry after averaging 6.8 as a freshman. Allen is roughly even with last year at 5.2 per carry after Friday’s outburst. It’s stunning that it took 13 weeks and a coaching change for the dynamic duo to find their stride. It bodes well for the future, though turnover on the line creates reason for worry.
This season began with a first-year starter in Drew Allar at quarterback, and what appeared to be a solid group up front — both reasons to rely on the young studs returning at running back.
The preseason loss of LG Landon Tengwall to a career-ending health issue hurt, but the bigger problems were the zone blocking scheme and the fact that Allar is less of a running threat than predecessors Sean Clifford and Trace McSorley.
In selecting a new OC, Franklin will have to decide what type of offense he wants to employ. Yurcich didn’t make the most of the available weapons this season, especially in the running game. Things looked better and more varied Friday night, but that may be a reflection of a bad, 4-8 MSU team playing out the string.
Season’s biggest concern: The WR room
KeAndre Lambert-Smith is the team’s only decent wideout right now. Otherwise, the tight ends have been the key pass-catchers, and Singleton has improved his production as a receiver.
Harrison Wallace III had a strong season-opener, but battled injuries the rest of the way. Touted transfer Dante Cephas struggled early and has contributed just 2 decent games and 22 total catches. Others haven’t been given much chance to develop. Liam Clifford (10 receptions) and Kaden Saunders (6) looked good on the few touches they got. Spring game standout Omari Evans (4 receptions in 9 appearances) and other returnees got even fewer chances.
Whether scheme or limited skill is to blame, these guys rarely got separation. No one has claimed the WR2 spot, let alone WR3. Unless the situation changes, going to 2-TE sets will be required, not optional.
Developing trend: Aggressive D
Diaz arrived prior to the 2022 season promising aggression, and he’s delivered. Penn State finished the regular season leading the B1G in sacks and tackles for loss for the 2nd straight season. The Lions rank among the top 5 in the country in those stats, 1st in sacks (48) and 4th in TFL (101).
With only a few exceptions, Penn State has not gotten burned for big plays while attacking from every level of the defense. The Lions are No. 1 in the nation in total defense (223.3 ypg), No. 3 against the run (69.7), No. 4 against the pass (153.6) and 3rd in takeaways (24). The Lions moved to the top spot in total D after holding MSU to 68 yards (88 passing, -20 rushing) and 5 first downs.
Franklin has said keeping Diaz is a major priority, and he couldn’t be more right. If Diaz leaves, it’s not as simple as promoting a staff member to do the same thing. Penn State fans learned that when Joe Moorhead moved on from the OC job after the 2017 season.
Key stat: +18
Penn State leads the country in turnover margin. That’s a credit to both sides of the ball, as the defense has taken the ball 24 times and the offense has only given it away 6 times. Though he played overly cautious and careful at times, Allar threw only 1 interception vs. 23 touchdowns passes. No FBS QB who has started double-digit games has a better ratio.
Best win: Ripping Iowa 31-0
The Hawkeyes’ offense makes Penn State’s look intricate and robust by comparison. But still … holding a ranked, now 10-win team to 76 yards and 4 first downs is legit. Doing it in front of a White Out crowd of 110,830 made it all the better. Allar threw 4 TD passes, and the Lions’ attack produced 28 first downs and 397 yards, the most given up by Phil Parker’s defense all year.
Worst loss: Conceding meekly to Michigan
Penn State wasted an opportunity at Ohio State while the Buckeyes were without RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Emeka Egbuka and a key member of the secondary. But losing to Michigan was worse. Five reasons:
- The game was at home.
- Michigan was without its head coach.
- Diaz’s defense forced the Wolverines to abandon the passing game, yet Yurcich’s offense couldn’t take advantage.
- Allar shrunk from the moment just as he did against the Buckeyes. Though, again, the game plan didn’t help.
- Franklin made 3 horrendous coaching decisions, going for 2 after both TDs and, more brutally, keeping the offense on the field for a 4th-and-6 try from his own 30 — with plenty of time and timeouts remaining. That gave the game away.
Play of the Year: Chop Robinson strip sack
This isn’t the most important positive play of the season, but it does epitomize what was most fun to watch from the 2023 Lions.
DE Chop Robinson made only 15 tackles this season, but he terrorized opposing QBs on almost every passing down. He got home for 4 sacks (plus 5 hurries) and 3.5 other TFL on the season, but his impact was way greater than the numbers suggest.
Most of Penn State’s biggest plays this season came in 2-second bursts. This 1 by Robinson against Rutgers is my favorite:
Player of the Year: Adisa Isaac, DE
Isaac led the Lions with 7.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss, including 3 against Michigan. After missing all of the 2021 season with an injury, the 6-4, 250-pound Isaac again played in every game and finished with more than twice as many total tackles (35) as dynamic fellow edge rusher Robinson. Isaac also had 4 QB hurries, a fumble forced and a fumble recovered. He has the option to return for a 6th season.
Offensive MVP: Olu Fashanu, OL
The 6-6, 317-pound left tackle eschewed a likely first-round pick in the NFL Draft to return to Penn State, and he didn’t disappoint. He still hasn’t given up a sack in college, and he was a key part of what success Penn State had in the running game. Effectively a redshirt junior, Fashanu could return. But it’s highly unlikely he’d turn down first-round money 2 years in a row. He may have already played his last game for the Lions.
Defensive MVP: Johnny Dixon, CB
Manny Diaz loves versatile players, and Dixon fits that bill. The 6-0, 196-pound corner snuck off the edge on blitzes for 4.5 sacks, and the senior was no slouch in coverage either, with 1 interception and 3 pass breakups. He did his part tackling too, with 20 solo stops and 6 assists. Dixon has steadily progressed since transferring from South Carolina for the 2021 season. He leads all B1G corners in sacks over the past 2 seasons (7.5). Because of redshirt (2019) and Covid (2020) seasons, Dixon has the option to return.
Freshman of the Year: Beau Pribula, QB
The redshirt freshman provides a change of pace when subbing in for Allar. Seeing mostly mop-up duty prior to Allar’s injury vs. Rutgers in Week 12, the 6-2, 200-pound Pribula sparked the running game with a style reminiscent of former No. 9 McSorley. He has rushed for 313 yards and 6 TDs, gaining a team-best 5.9 yards per carry. He’s also 10-for-20 passing for 101 yards and 3 TDs.
Bowl outlook
No. 11 Penn State will play in one. And probably a pretty good one. Maybe NY6 good. Opt-outs will give an indication of who’s not coming back. But the program is loaded with enough young talent to hang tough against most potential opponents.
Way too early 2024 outlook
With the offense in flux, Penn State will have to worry about losing players to the portal as well as the NFL. The biggest losses will come along the line, where Fashanu, center Hunter Nourzad, RG Sal Wormley and RT Caedan Wallace all are likely to move on. Tight ends Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren, both juniors, also would be tough to replace.
If Diaz leaves, the worry applies to the defense as well. Even if he stays, the unit could lose key players such as Robinson, Isaac, LB Curtis Jacobs, CB Kalen King, DB Daequan Hardy and others.
In a best-case scenario, though, many of those players return and the key members of the loaded 2021 recruiting class reach yet another level. Allar, Pribula, the 2 backs, LB Abdul Carter, DE Dani Dennis-Sutton and others could hit another gear as juniors.
If Diaz stays and Franklin finds Diaz’s doppelganger for the offense, the sky’s the limit.
The news and the vibe coming out of the Lasch Building over the next couple months will tell a lot.