
Penn State football: 10 bold predictions for the 2023 season
The hype train is leaving the station. Get on board.
Penn State might have the best offensive lineman in the country. It might have an NFL Draft first-round DB for the first time ever. Finally, the 5-star QB takes the reins. The sophomore class is locked and loaded after a breakout season in 2022.
In James Franklin’s 10th campaign, the Nittany Lions seems worthy of bold predictions. Is this the year?
The staff Broyles over
The Broyles Award, though thought of mostly as an award for coordinators, actually is open to all assistant coaches — some 1,300 of them.
Last season, Manny Diaz became Penn State’s 1st semifinalist (final 15) for the honor, but he didn’t make the 5-man cut to get a dinner in Little Rock, Ark., out of the deal. (The award is named for former Arkansas head coach Frank Broyles.) This time around, Diaz is likely to get that invite. And offensive line coach Phil Trautwein might be joining him. I like the 4th-year PSU assistant to at least gain semifinalist status, because Penn State’s line is going to be better than it’s been in a long, long time.
Don’t pick on the new QB
Sophomore Drew Allar will initially show his 5-star chops not by posting monster passing numbers but by protecting the ball and efficiently leading a balanced offense. Similar to Michigan’s JJ McCarthy a year ago, the 6-5, 240-pound Allar will complete a high percentage of mostly safe attempts while minimizing mistakes. He’ll throw no more than 5 picks in the regular season and lose no more than 2 fumbles.
Olu wins the Outland
LT Olu Fashanu, a 6-6, 320-pound junior, ascended to NFL Draft 1st-round favorite after just a handful of starts last season. Still just 20 years old, he remains at Penn State to pursue a degree, the CFP and perhaps the top trophy open to college football’s trench warriors. A natural pass-blocker (0 sacks allowed in 2022), he can lock up some hardware and a top-5 draft slot with improved run blocking. Considering he’s bigger and stronger than a year ago, and also has one of the top GPAs on the team, odds are he’ll figure out how to improve in every area.
Fellow left tackle Joe Alt of Notre Dame figures to be his top challenger on the offensive side of the ball, but the Outland is open to defensive lineman, too. If Fashanu stays healthy all season (he missed the final 5 games last season), he’ll be on the short list come January.
Michigan center Olusegun Oluwatimi won last year, so the Olu karma is working in Fashanu’s favor, too.
Hangin’ a quick hundred
West Virginia sounds like a tough opening weekend opponent, a rival from back in the Independent days and now a fellow Power 5 program. But the Mountaineers are picked last in the Big 12 coming off a season in which they gave up just a shade under 33 points per game. They gave up 38 or more on 7 occasions.
Week 2 brings the Delaware Blue Hens to Beaver Stadium, and Penn State will be tuning up for hard-nosed B1G West foes Illinois (away) and Iowa (home, White Out) the next 2 weeks. James Franklin and staff will want to get the new starting QB and the offense in general as many training reps as possible.
Penn State will hit triple digits in points after 2 games and be in the top 5 in the country — maybe even 1st — in scoring average.
2 backs with 1,000+ yards
Last season as true freshmen, Nick Singleton rushed for 1,061 yards and Kaytron Allen added 867. They shared carries almost evenly (Allen 167, Singleton 156) while ceding some early season backfield time to Keyvone Lee.
Well, Lee is gone (transfer to Mississippi State). Incoming transfer Trey Potts from Minnesota will probably see some situational touches, but the attempts should go up for both Singleton and Allen. Given the duo’s added year of maturity, an improving line and a first-year starter at QB, Penn State figures to ride their running backs.
Given all that, maybe this doesn’t even seem like a bold prediction. But the program hasn’t had 2 1,000-yard ground gainers in a season since … ever.
More sacks than 2022
Last year in Manny Diaz’s debut as DC, Penn State led the B1G in sacks with 42, improving by 15 over the previous season. Led by LB Abdul Carter (6.5 sacks) and DE Chop Robinson (5.5), 6 of the 7 players who posted 3 or more QB takedowns are back.
The high mark during the Franklin era is 47 in 2018. I’ll take the over: 48 sacks.
Abdul Carter > all other B1G LBs
If you’ve read any of Carter’s offseason quotes and posts, you know his motor and his motivation just don’t quit. He’s coming off a true freshman season with a team-high 6.5 sacks, 10.5 TFL and plenty more disruption (4 pass breakups, 5 QB hurries, 2 forced fumbles). The sacks, tackles for loss and forced fumbles led all Big Ten freshmen.
All that while starting only 6 of the 13 games and missing almost all of the opener after a targeting ejection. Given his speed and the talent around him, offense won’t be able to work away from him. He’s amazing in track-down mode, and will arrive with increased viciousness now that he’s bulked up to 6-3, 250 by adding 15 pounds of muscle.
Wearing the revered PSU No. 11 jersey, he’s going to attract the eyeballs of those awards voters who didn’t pay sufficient attention last year.
Going as boldly as Carter himself, I’m pegging him not just for 1st-team All-B1G, but as a 1st-team All-American too.
Heartbreak at the Horseshoe
Ohio State remains loaded with talent. It’s 2021 recruiting class had 6 of the top 11 players in the country, and all of them but QB Quinn Ewers remains on the roster. So too does Marvin Harrison Jr., who was only No. 160 in that class according to 247Sports’ composite rankings. On top of that group that ranked No. 2 in the country, Ryan Day has added No. 4 classes the past 2 seasons.
Frankly, Day’s team has underachieved while going 11-2 each of the past 2 seasons. If the roster stays healthy and rises to its potential, the only question remaining will be — like Penn State — if the highly touted new starter at QB is up to the task.
With the game at Ohio Stadium, where Penn State hasn’t won since 2011, Penn State will do well just to keep the game close. Which the Lions will do, dropping a 1-score heartbreaker reminiscent of the 2017 and 2018 1-point losses.
Michigan is going down!
Jim Harbaugh has put together quite the roster, evidenced by back-to-back Playoff appearances. But the 9th-year Michigan coach presents a quirky side not confined just to press conferences. He’s capable of mucking up a game, and Penn State gets his Wolverines at home this season — a noon kickoff on Nov. 11.
Penn State has won 2 of 3 and 5 of 7 over Michigan at Beaver Stadium. Also, the 2021 loss, 21-17, was a tight game despite the fact the Lions were reeling and unranked while UM was No. 6. Add in that these current players have a bitter, bitter taste in their mouths from last year’s 41-17 pasting in Ann Arbor.
I like the Lions to arrive a year ahead of the schedule most national analysts predict. This 10th game of their season will be the proving ground.
Lions in the CFP
Yes, I’m going there. Plenty of other prognosticators say the Lions are a year away, destined to go 11-2 again this season — at best.
But this is their time.
Allar is just going to have to be ready, if not right away, then by Week 3 at Illinois at the latest. Fashanu is back to anchor the line, a luxury Penn State fell into and must take advantage of.
The defense could lose key members Kalen King and Chop Robinson to early exits, and Diaz won’t stick as an assistant much longer unless he’s suddenly dropped aspirations of returning to the head-coaching ranks.
Nothing is guaranteed in the future, other than that the Playoff will be more attainable but less meaningful as an accomplishment when it boasts 12 teams.
The prediction: a painful, narrow loss to Ohio State; an epic victory over Michigan; no clunkers. That adds up to 11-1, Franklin’s first regular season without at least 2 losses. B1G title game: win. CFP semi: loss. Final tally: 12-2, 4th in the polls.