Big picture, Penn State has been trending in the wrong direction these past 2 seasons, going 11-11 overall and 8-10 in Big Ten play.

It’s easy to point a finger at the offensive line — and we will — but that’s far from the whole story. Breaking it down statistically, one can spread the blame far and wide. This list of hellish PSU trends provides a starting point:

Declining sack totals

Penn State produced at least 40 sacks every season from 2015-19, topping out at 47 in 2018. Since then? The Lions had 21 in 9 games in 2020, which works out to 30.3 in a full, non-Covid 13-game season. The total dipped to 27 last year, 8th best in the B1G and tied for 65th in the country. The most recent previous time the program checked in at sub-30 sacks in a full season? That would be 2013.

With Arnold Ebiketie and his team-high 9.5 sacks gone, the team will need a bunch of highly touted but inexperienced edge rushers to step up. With Adisa Isaac (returning from injury), Chop Robinson (sophomore 5-star transfer from Maryland) and Dani Dennis-Sutton (5-star true freshman), new defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has edge weapons at his disposal. The interior of the line gets a boost with super senior PJ Mustipher back healthy, Hakeem Beamon supposedly back in the coaches’ good graces and several others apparently ready to step up.

Diaz says he’ll bring more pressure from more places, too, meaning the linebackers could get more involved in chasing quarterbacks than in recent seasons.

Prediction: PSU will improve, reaching at least 35 sacks.

Tackles for loss allowed

This all-encompassing stat seems like the best one to use as a gauge on the much maligned offensive line.

Penn State gave up a B1G-worst 34 sacks last year, and 58 other negative-yardage running plays. At 92 tackles for loss allowed, the Lions ranked 13th in the league and 113th in the nation. It’s no wonder they were 13th in the B1G and 117th in the country in yards per carry (3.21) — they went backward to the tune of 344 yards (26.5 per game).

This has been a damning trend throughout James Franklin’s tenure. In Bill O’Brien’s 2 seasons as head coach, the Lions finished with the fewest TFLs allowed in the league both times. Since Franklin took the helm in 2014, they’ve finished last twice, 13th twice, 10th twice and never higher than 7th. Ouch.

From Franklin to OC Mike Yurcich to OL coach Phil Trautwein, the staff insists line play — and scheme changes to help the guys up front — has been emphasized throughout the spring and summer.

Prediction: Modest improvement keeps the Lions out of the bottom 5 in the B1G in the category, meaning at least their 3rd best season under Franklin.

Usage rate of lead running back

Injuries gutted the running back room in 2020, and Penn State is still trying to recover. For fans, the hope is that 5-star freshman Nicholas Singleton can be the answer. But whether he or returning starter Keyvone Lee can turn the numbers around depends on opportunity. Penn State’s share-the-ball approach in the backfield has stifled all involved. No PSU back has had a 1,000-yard season since 2018, and no back has had a 100-yard rushing game in the past 16 outings.

That’s not going to change if no one gets even 10 carries per game. Even Saquon Barkley needed to touch the ball to make an impact; that’s kind of a no-brainer. But the touches have gone down for the team’s top back since Barkley and then Miles Sanders left for the NFL.

PSU lead back touches

2016:  Saquon Barkley — 272 rushes + 28 receptions = 300 touches (22 TDs)
2017: Saquon Barkley — 217 rushes + 54 receptions = 271 touches (21 TDs)
2018: Miles Sanders — 220 rushes + 24 receptions = 244 touches (9 TDs)
2019: Journey Brown — 129 rushes + 12 receptions = 141 touches (13 TDs)
2020: Keyvone Lee — 89 rushes + 12 receptions = 101 touches (4 TDs)
2021: Keyvone Lee — 108 rushes + 15 receptions = 123 touches (2 TDs)

So, we’ve gone from Barkley getting 21.4 touches per game in 2016 to Lee averaging 9.5 last year. Someone needs to get more than that this year, and Singleton may be a better choice than Lee. But someone needs to be allowed to develop some in-game rhythm and cohesion with the rest of the offense.

Prediction: Penn State again overplays its depth, and these ugly trends continue for another year. Wait till 2023!

Red zone TD percentage

In 2017 and 2018, no one in the Big Ten was better than Penn State at converting red zone trips into TDs. In 2019, Sean Clifford’s first season as the starting quarterback, that ranking dropped to 3rd — still plenty respectable. But the past 2 seasons, the Lions have been 12th and 11th.

After 3 straight seasons scoring TDs in the red zone at better than a 70 percent clip, PSU dropped off to 51.4% in 2020 and then 47.6% last year.

Running the ball across the goal line has proved nearly impossible. (Note Lee’s TD totals above.) And WR Jahan Dotson, the team leader in TDs the past 2 seasons, is now in the NFL. So scoring won’t be easy, from inside or outside the red zone.

New guys will factor heavily. Singleton, transfer WR Mitchell Tinsley and freshman speedster Kaden Saunders will need to inject some big-play jet fuel into the offense. If the line and the TEs make some progress, Penn State can get better in this area.

Prediction: QB Sean Clifford and Yurcich get in sync, the young guys liven things up and Penn State finishes in the top half of the league.

Record in 1-score games

Red zone success really, really matters in close games, as do ball-control clock-eating offense and crunch-time shutdown defense. At various times over the past 2 seasons, Penn State has shown itself to be lacking in all those areas.

PSU record in 1-score games

2016: 4-2
2017: 2-2
2018: 3-3
2019: 4-1
2020: 0-2
2021: 2-4

Turning this trend around involves turning the other ones around. It’s the path to re-admittance into the top 25 of the polls and a fun rather than frustrating 2022.

Prediction: PSU progresses to the mean, going .500 in 1-score games, 9-3 overall and 6-3 in the B1G.