Penn State hasn’t had an undefeated season in 27 seasons and hasn’t won a national title in 35. Mike Yurcich doesn’t have enough magic in his offensive bag of tricks to end those droughts — not with all the questions facing the program in the wake of last year’s 4-5 disaster.

On the other hand, the Lions are just a season removed from their 8-0 start in 2019, and they have plenty of reasons beyond just the arrival of a hot-shot new offensive coordinator to be optimistic. The RB room is dynamic, deep and healthy; the 1-2 receiving punch of Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington should flourish in Yurcich’s scheme; and the defense should coalesce around 3rd-year, former 5-star LB Brandon Smith and a couple of grad transfers brought in to shore up the line.

If Sean Clifford can parlay his 20 starts worth of experience and Yurcich’s guidance into a breakthrough season at quarterback, Penn State could find itself back knocking on the College Football Playoff door in James Franklin’s 8th season.

But PSU has its thin spots, too. If the staff’s most hopeful outlooks don’t pan out at DE, the interior of the O-line and — especially — at QB, the Lions could struggle to produce a winning season. The spectrum of possibilities is that wide.

Best-case scenario 1, super optimistic

Yurcich is Joe Moorhead on steroids (figuratively speaking only, of course), and Clifford runs a wide-open attack with reckless abandon yet avoids turnovers and somehow stays healthy all year.

The defense dominates at all levels: A healthy Tariq-Castro Fields and NFL-auditioning Jaquan Brisker lead a hard-hitting, tight-covering secondary; Smith looks like the second-coming of Micah Parsons at LB, and Temple grad transfer Arnold Ebiketie battles for the B1G lead in sacks. The Lions win the turnover battle by 1 per game, flipping the script from 2020.

The Lions lose only once, on the road to either Wisconsin or Iowa. They pull a stunning upset in Columbus in late October, as Ohio State remains susceptible to wide-open offenses and its rookie QB falters in his first true challenge of the season. With Clifford getting Heisman hype, Penn State avenges its lone regular-season loss in the B1G title game.

Penn State makes the CFP for the first time, where it loses to Alabama or Clemson.

Final record: 12-2. Bowl: Cotton 

Best-case scenario 2, reasonably optimistic

Clifford settles into a game-manager role, cuts down on his turnovers and runs sparingly as the coaches protect their lone experienced QB. The revamped offensive line holds up reasonably well considering the losses of NFL Draft picks Michal Menet and Will Fries. Noah Cain and Keyvone Lee provide steady power running with occasional big plays mixed in. Dotson and Parker, along with the tight ends, make clutch third-down catches in PSU’s ball-possession offense.

The grad transfers on the D-line, Ebiketie and Derrick Tangelo (Duke), are solid but don’t stand out, something that could be said for the defense as a whole. It ranks in the top third of the league in yards and points allowed, but doesn’t force many turnovers.

Penn State wins the games it is supposed to win, and maybe pulls one minor upset. Road games at Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State — all ranked above the Lions to start the season — keep the Lions from any delusions of grandeur.

Final record: 9-4. Bowl: Las Vegas

Best-case scenario 3, cautiously optimistic

Penn State struggles early, with Clifford taking a pounding behind a work-in-progress offensive line. The coaches decide to play 2 QBs, giving 3rd-year backup Ta’Quan Roberson his first meaningful snaps. With Clifford starting, the former 4-star recruit Roberson gets comfortable little by little. In the second half of the season, the Lions get on a roll, playing free and easy. Roberson’s true dual-threat game opens up new possibilities for Yurcich.

The Lions have to settle for a lower-tier bowl, but make the most of it and finish the season thinking 2022 will be their year.

Final record: 8-5. Bowl: Duke’s Mayo

Worst-case scenario 1, pessimistic

Clifford proves adequate, but Yurcich plays all 5 top running backs equally and none of them gets any rhythm. The LBs and edge rushers prove too small to hold their ground against the top power offenses in the B1G.

Some of the bugaboos of 2020 creep back into play, with Maryland, in particular, burning the Lions’ secondary for a couple big-play passing TDs.

Final record: 7-6. Bowl: Pinstripe 

Worst-case scenario 2, seriously pessimistic

Penn State looks like the average B1G team it was to close 2020. But it turns out the rest of the league has made major strides. Indiana’s Michael Penix Jr. and Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa overwhelm the Lions with aerial assaults. Jim Harbaugh leads his resurrected smash-mouth Michigan team to a blowout victory at Beaver Stadium. Penn State ekes out narrow victories over Rutgers and Michigan State to become bowl-eligible at 6-6. But the future doesn’t look bright at all after a loss in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Final record: 6-7. Bowl: Pinstripe

Worst-case scenario 3, Armageddon

Bad luck abounds. The top 2 QBs miss significant time because of injury, illness or unforeseen issues. Yurcich is forced to choose between 3-star true freshman Christian Veilleux or a walk-on. The Lions are completely overwhelmed. The losses snowball. Dotson exits early to prepare for the NFL Draft; several others follow. Ohio State shows no mercy and wins by 70. The Lions go 1-3 in November, beating only Rutgers.

Final record: 4-8