
Penn State football: Final thoughts and a prediction for Saturday night vs. Minnesota
One loss, and it’s back to square one.
Penn State enters its White Out game Saturday night against Minnesota as an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Not one position group seems stable. Whether Sean Clifford, Drew Allar or someone else starts at quarterback should be the least of any fan’s worry.
The Nittany Lions have bigger problems. They have nothing but problems.
Has any ranked, 5-1 team faced more doubt than this one? And surely, based on what happened last weekend in Ann Arbor against Michigan, that doubt rises from inside the program as well as out.
Ninth-year head coach James Franklin bluntly conceded after the 41-17 loss to the Wolverines that his program has roster issues that can’t be fixed in a week’s time.
“We’ve gotta develop. We’ve gotta recruit. We’ve gotta get bigger. We’re undersized in some spots,” he said after the Nittany Lions were dominated physically and statistically.
Team captain and defensive line anchor PJ Mustipher used the word “embarrassing” in his postgame assessment.
Minnesota will try to do the same thing to the Lions, despite seemingly having lesser weapons and less swagger.
Unlike the No. 4 Wolverines, the Gophers aren’t undefeated. They’re 4-2 and unranked. They’re not riding high; they’ve lost 2 straight. They don’t have an elite offensive line, just a solid one.
But 6th-year coach PJ Fleck’s boat rowers will come at the Lions just as Michigan did, with a power running game and a top 10 defense.
This matchup isn’t about the 6th-year senior starting quarterbacks, both questionable. Even if Clifford and counterpart Tanner Morgan both play Saturday night, even if neither does, this game is about — to say it bluntly — the Nittany Lions’ collective fortitude.
That’s the question that’s been brewing since last year’s collapse, when a 5-0 start turned into a 7-6 final record. The parallels couldn’t be any more straight forward.
“I want to see how this team reacts,” former PSU player Keith “Goon” Conlin said Tuesday on one of his weekly podcasts. “If it happens again where it seems like our guys just don’t care and don’t want to fight and just don’t give a crap … then there is something significantly wrong here. …
“If I see another lackadaisical effort of guys just not caring or not wanting to play or not wanting to be there or not wanting to fight, then I don’t know how you can support this program.”
Drop the mic, Goon!
No. 16 Penn State (5-1, 2-1) can and should beat unranked Minnesota (4-2, 1-2), which is sputtering after consecutive losses to Purdue and Illinois. The Gophers dominated 3 non-conference cupcakes and injury-depleted Michigan State to start the season, but then imploded against the Boilermakers and the Illini. Morgan threw 3 picks in a 20-10 loss to Purdue, then went 4-of-12 for 21 yards and another pick before exiting in the 4th quarter against Illinois.
Can Penn State take advantage of any of that? That’s the $7.5 million question again this season.
The prediction …
First off, I think Michigan really is that good. Jim Harbaugh has built a powerful, hardnosed program Up North.
So I’d like to believe the Lions can bounce back and look like the team that rallied past Purdue and smothered Auburn on the road. But I don’t. I’m going to have to go back on my season prediction of 11-2, even though I’ve gotten every outcome right so far.
Minnesota will hand the ball to 6th-year senior power back Mohamed Ibrahim upwards of 40 times, and he’ll pound away behind a line anchored by standout center John Michael Schmitz. The Gophers lead the country in 3rd down conversion rate (66.2%) and rank 5th in time of possession.
On defense, the Gophers are also No. 1 in the country on 3rd downs, ceding conversions just 21.9% of the time.
For comparison’s sake, Penn State ranks 105th in converting 3rd downs (33.8%), 67th in possession time and 53rd in stopping 3rd-down tries.
Penn State plans to counter with a synchronized cell phone light show and maybe some peanut butter and jelly projectiles.
Ibrahim has run for more than 100 yards in 14 straight games. Even PB&Js with the crusts on probably ain’t gonna get the job done.
Minnesota 20, Penn State 18