Penn State and Notre Dame will meet in the Orange Bowl on Thursday night (7:30 pm, ABC) in a battle of the 2 most similar teams in the College Football Playoff field.

Even before you get to the on-the-field similarities, a national narrative follows these programs around in the same manner a teenage boy dutifully tracks the hallways holding books for his first high school girlfriend.

A friend of mine, Sean Mahoney, a lifelong Notre Dame fan, tells a story of visiting his Dad, a 30-year-old Cooper tire factory worker in Ohio. It was November of 2012, and Mahoney, feeling chipper about the unbeaten Fighting Irish, went to take his Dad out for lunch wearing an old Notre Dame jacket. Sean remembers how his Dad proudly introduced him to his boss, explaining that he made tires for decades so his son could go on to college at Fordham and business school at Penn.

“You’d think with all that education he’d be a winner,” the boss said to both Mahoneys after shaking Sean’s hand.

“Excuse me?” Sean asked.

“Notre Dame hasn’t won a big game since before you were born, kid.”

Somewhere, right about now, a family of Penn State fans can tell a similar story.

Penn State’s failures to win “big games” has become so inextricably linked to their head coach, James Franklin, that “big games” appears in the list when you type Franklin’s name into a Google search bar. Penn State and Notre Dame fans can tell you all about bowl wins from seasons past, and victories over teams like Minnesota, Florida State, Illinois or Wisconsin.

But all the national folks seem to remember about Notre Dame and Penn State are the agonizing moments. The Bush Push to end a championship run in 2005. Sean Clifford’s season-altering injury and the blown 2-touchdown lead to Iowa in 2021. The Manti Te’o catfish and blowout loss to Alabama in the 2012 National Championship. Sam Darnold’s comeback to stun Penn State in the 2017 Rose Bowl. Notre Dame losing 2 Playoff games by a combined score of 61-17 to Alabama and Clemson in 2018 and 2020. The JT Barrett comeback against Penn State in 2017. Brian Kelly departing Notre Dame for his Cajun roots to “have a chance to consistently win championships.”

It’s entirely reasonable to suggest that if you were asked to list 2 programs that came immediately to mind when you thought of “big game” failures, a fan might quickly jot down “Notre Dame” and “Penn State” and ask, “next question.”

Now, both teams have shed the labels of the past and stand just one game from an opportunity to play for a national championship. And yes, if you want to take one step farther, you might note that both programs last won consensus national championships in the 1980s, with Penn State’s last consensus title coming in 1986 and Notre Dame’s in 1988.

On the field, the waking of the Echoes in South Bend and the lion stirring from its slumber in State College have occurred in parallel fashion. Both teams have built dominant defenses behind stout play along the line of scrimmage behind the recruiting chops and brain trusts of 2 of the game’s most likable young head coaches in the still just 52-year-old Franklin at Penn State and the 38-year-old rising star Marcus Freeman in South Bend.

Both programs do just enough on offense, putting up high scoring numbers (37.7 points per game for Notre Dame, 33.7 for Penn State, both top 25 nationally) that are deceptively better than the product on the field. The offenses feature quarterbacks in Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard and Penn State’s Drew Allar with very different styles and back stories but incredibly similar statistical production.

Finally, both programs face off with an immense opportunity. Notre Dame and Penn State are both 2 of the 5 winningest programs in the history of college football, but only one will advance to the national championship game and earn the opportunity to end their long national championship drought.

You could argue the Fighting Irish are slightly ahead of schedule, and Penn State’s 11-year journey from hiring Franklin to today took longer than usual. But however different the respective journeys, the challenge is the same: Beat a great football team that is strong in the same ways you are strong.

Notre Dame is favored by 1.5 points, via DraftKings Sportsbook. Who will win the first meeting of the storied programs since 2007, when Penn State bested the Fighting Irish in the first ever full Beaver Stadium White Out?

Let’s break it down, shall we?

Key 1: Notre Dame has to run to win

The Fighting Irish want to run the football, and they are excellent at it, with the rotation of Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love rushing for over 1,700 yards and 23 touchdowns this season and Leonard adding 831 yards and 15 touchdowns. Notre Dame uses the run game to stay on schedule and ahead of the chains, ranking 5th in success rate offensively, a statistic that measures how often an offense gains a “successful” amount of yardage, given down and distance. To be successful, a play needs to gain 5 yards on 1st down, at least 70% of the remaining yardage needed on 2nd down, and 100% of the necessary yards on 3rd or 4th down.

I’ve tracked the success rate stat for all my coverage since 2021, and Notre Dame’s success is one of the most intriguing case studies. The reason is that Notre Dame isn’t explosive. The Fighting Irish rank just 47th in explosive plays of 10 yards or more and 65th in explosive plays of 20 yards or more, yet the Fighting Irish rank 5th in success rate nationally and 6th in SP+ offensive efficiency, a metric created by football analyst Bill Connelly that details how efficient an offense is adjusted for tempo and strength of opponent.

What’s behind the disparity between explosiveness and successful offense? Or, put differently, how does Notre Dame manage to be such a quality offense — breaking a program scoring record in 2024 — despite a lack of explosive plays?

The answer is the run game, which keys everything Notre Dame does. If you put the Fighting Irish in 3rd-and-long, as Georgia did frequently in the Sugar Bowl, Notre Dame can struggle because it does not create chunk plays at a high level. The Fighting Irish created only 5 explosive plays in the Sugar Bowl — 1 of which was a touchdown throw late in the 2nd quarter — and converted just 4-of-14 3rd downs. Riley Leonard threw for just 90 yards, and Notre Dame’s receivers, a steady group but one that lacks a true gamebreaker, failed to get much separation against Georgia’s blue-chip laden secondary.

If you make Notre Dame throw consistently, you make Leonard and the Fighting Irish offense uncomfortable. Will Penn State be able to limit Notre Dame offensively? Two factors — 1 stat and 1 play — are critical.

Key 2: Penn State misses a lot of tackles

Penn State ranks 8th nationally in rushing defense this season and is coming off a Fiesta Bowl Playoff quarterfinal win over Boise State where it limited Heisman Trophy finalist Ashton Jeanty to a season-low 104 yards rushing. That makes Penn State’s prospects against Notre Dame’s rushing attack promising, right?

Not so fast, my friends.

Penn State misses an extraordinary number of tackles for an elite defense. The Nittany Lions boast a missed tackle rate of 17%, the 4th-worst figure in the Power 4 and worst of the remaining Playoff teams. (Notre Dame, by contrast, misses just 11% of its tackles, the best figure of the remaining Playoff teams). Even in the Fiesta Bowl, Jeanty forced 16 Penn State missed tackles, per PFF. That was Jeanty’s 3rd-highest missed tackle rate all season.

Penn State used superior talent to weather that storm, allowing Jeanty just 0.6 yards before contact on each attempt. Notre Dame starts multiple blue-chip talents up front and won’t be pushed around as easily as Boise State’s o-line was. The Fighting Irish finished 7th in run blocking grade this season, per PFF. But the Fighting Irish can also make you miss.

Notre Dame’s 1-2 punch of Price and Love has forced more missed tackles than any duo in America (99). As a result, the Fighting Irish led America in yards after contact per attempt, averaging a staggering 4.2 per carry. Both Price and Love embrace the physical punishment they can inflict on a defense as the game wears on.

That’s why Notre Dame’s rushing offense created 70% of their explosive runs in the second half, as defenses tired of wrapping up.

The good news for Penn State is that they have been terrific all season at halting the run at the point of attack. The Nittany Lions allow just 1.1 yards before contact per attempt, ranking 2nd among the Playoff teams.

The bad news is that in addition to missing tackles, Penn State is not particularly battle-tested against the run, despite having just faced Boise State. The best rushing offense Penn State faced in B1G action was Ohio State. The Buckeyes rank just 53rd nationally running the ball but gashed Penn State for 176 yards at a 4.4 yard per carry clip.

Notre Dame is built to run the ball and better at blocking for the run than Ohio State. Will Penn State be up for the fight? They better tackle. They also better understand how to stop one bread and butter Notre Dame play.

Key 3: Notre Dame’s zone read

Notre Dame’s best run concept this season is the zone read, where it average 6.7 yards per attempt, per Stats Solutions. Notre Dame blocks these plays exceptionally well, even on the boundary with their wide receivers. They also have a quarterback, Riley Leonard, who can negate improper reads with his legs.

Leonard is also a masterful improviser when things break down.

Leonard isn’t the only one of the 3-headed rushing attack that can terrorize in this concept, as Indiana found out early in Round 1 of the Playoff.

 

Penn State has been steady against zone read this season, allowing just 4.2 yards per attempt. That’s a great number, but it’s come against anemic run games and sparingly at best. The best run games Penn State has played this season have been more traditional, save West Virginia, who the Nittany Lions stymied all the way back in August. The Mountaineers averaged just 1.9 yards per zone read concept (12). Can Penn State replicate that success on Thursday night?

Key 4: Can Drew Allar handle Notre Dame’s pass rush?

Drew Allar, the 5-star, top-ranked quarterback in America who many in State College and beyond believed would elevate the Nittany Lions to the next level when he signed in 2022, has started to show flashes of being the guy scouts and fans believed he would be.

There are throws he can make that very few quarterbacks on Earth can deliver.

He’s also improved as a decision-maker and become more patient in the pocket, as on this touchdown pass in the win over Boise State.

 

The one area where Allar still struggles is when he faces consistent pressure.

There’s a precipitous decline in his productivity when under pressure, which explains in part why his lowest 4 quarterback ratings in 2024 came in games where Allar was pressured on 11 or more occasions. In those 4 contests, Allar’s yards per attempt dropped to 7.18 from his season average of 8.6, his completion percentage dipped to 60.4% from a season average of 67.4%, and he threw 5 of his 7 interceptions.

Even some of Allar’s quality plays under pressure have been “turnover-worthy” throws, per PFF, as 2 of these passes against Oregon — both Penn State receptions! — demonstrate.

If Penn State wins, that likely means we wake up Friday morning talking about how Allar handled his most urgent issue in the Orange Bowl, which is avoiding turnover-worthy throws in the face of a brilliant Notre Dame pass rush. The Fighting Irish will be without menacing lineman Rylie Mills against Penn State, but All-American Howard Cross III will play for the Fighting Irish and RJ Oben is playing his best football when it matters most.

 

Notre Dame is tied for 17th in the country in sacks (37.0) and 11th in quarterback pressures. Penn State will shuffle personnel to bring help (which we will discuss below), but facing Notre Dame’s elite secondary (18 interceptions, tied for 4th nationally), Allar has to take fewer chances even when under pressure. Is he ready to take that next step in his development in the biggest game of his life?

Key 5: How will ND deal with Tyler Warren?

Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden loves man coverages and plays them on 57% of snaps, per PFF.

Warren, the John Mackey Award winner as the nation’s best tight end, led the Power 4 tight ends in essentially every meaningful category, including yards (1,158), touchdowns (8), and yards after the catch (655). Warren averages 9 targets and 78 yards receiving a game. No other Penn State receiver averages 5 targets or 50 yards per game.

In other words, no other player is more singularly important to this game than Tyler Warren.

How does Notre Dame typically defend the tight end?

Xavier Watts is Notre Dame’s best player and a consensus First-Team All-American at safety, but Golden likes to keep him high to help downfield. Typically, Adon Shuler is tasked with man coverage on tight ends. He’s done a great job, limiting passers to just a 50% completion percentage against him in 1-on-1 coverage.

Of course, Shuler hasn’t faced a tight end remotely as talented as Warren. The Penn State star can make plays like this one, negating blanket coverage with outstanding hands and athleticism. According to PFF, Warren caught 13 of 21 contested targets this season, ranking third among FBS tight ends in contested catches. At 6-6 and 260 pounds, he’s a load to tackle or cover without additional safety help. Can he force Golden to help Shuler? Scouts sizing up Warren as a late first-rounder in 2025 will be very interested in any potential matchups between Warren and Watts, one of the top safeties on the draft board this spring.

A nugget to know: Superior talent is 7-1 in the Playoff

Notre Dame ranks 9th in the 247 Talent Composite, with 58 blue-chip players. Penn State ranks 11th, with 53. Penn State has more 5-star players (5) than the Fighting Irish (1, linebacker Jaylen Sneed). The Nittany Lions also have the most talented player (Allar) at the most important position in sports, quarterback.

But the more talented team is now 7-1 in the College Football Playoff, with only Notre Dame bucking the trend by whipping Georgia, 23-10. Will the Jimmies and Joes defeating Xs and Os trend continue in the Orange Bowl?

Hidden factors that just might matter

Let’s start with injuries, just so I don’t get to word 3,000 before I mention B1G Defensive Player of the Year Abdul Carter. The star defensive end was injured during Penn State’s Fiesta Bowl win over Boise State and missed the second half. Franklin sounded positive, even if somewhat cryptic, when discussing Carter on a media call this week, though.

“He’s great,” Franklin told the press. “He has a positive attitude, and the right approach. It will come down to how he feels and how much practice he’s able to get. But at this point, I don’t think anything is stopping him from playing. The question is how is he able to play.”

 

Carter’s presence would be immense, of course. It’s not an understatement to suggest he does everything, from pressure the quarterback (11 sacks), to hold the edge (45 of his 63 tackles are in run support), create fumbles (2), to limit passing lanes (3 blocked passes).

End Dani Dennis-Sutton is also banged up, which could limit Penn State’s excellent pass rush if Carter can’t play. Corner AJ Harris, who has battled injuries since late October, also left the Boise State game with an injury but should play.

As for Notre Dame, it will be without Mills and All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison. The Fighting Irish’s outstanding depth up front and in the secondary showed out against Georgia and will need to again. Morrison was missed on a few vertical shots Georgia nearly hit in the Sugar Bowl, but the Fighting Irish have been playing without their star corner since October, and freshman corner Leonard Moore has been spectacular spelling Morrison.

Count special teams as yet another way these teams are incredibly similar.

Until Notre Dame’s Mitch Jeter connected on 3 huge kicks against Georgia, the Fighting Irish were all but praying the rosary on field goal attempts this season, with 11 missed kicks, including a mystifying 3 errant kicks from 39 yards or less. Did Jeter figure it out? Did he benefit from kicking indoors? Both? It’s great that he played his best game in the Playoff, but Notre Dame is miles from “trust” as it relates to its kicking situation.

One thing Notre Dame can do is block punts.

After blocking 7 punts in Freeman’s first season, the Fighting Irish have 6 blocked kicks in 2024, including 2 by program legacy Bryce Young.

The Fighting Irish also still have this fake punt in the bag, which … well it is art, even if it didn’t count.

 

And of course, there was Jayden Harrison’s 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown that all but sealed the Sugar Bowl win for Notre Dame on the opening play of the second half.

Penn State is less explosive on special teams, but thanks to freshman walk-on kicker Ryan Barker, who possesses both a huge leg and a fantastic head of hair, the Nittany Lions have steely, reliable kicker.

 

Barker drilled the game-winner at USC less than a month from winning the job, and he hasn’t missed a kick of less than 53 yards since Nov. 9 against Washington. That kick earned Barker the hero’s treatment from his teammates and a now-famous television. One assumes it is only a matter of time before he reaps another reward: a scholarship.

Barker’s consistency may prove to be a critical edge for the Nittany Lions in a game decided at the margins.

The prediction …

This game is as close to a coin-flip as you can find, both from a data standpoint and a team makeup standpoint. Each team is built to negate the other’s strength. Notre Dame has the nation’s best secondary, leading the country in pass efficiency defense. They have the nation’s best safety in Watts, the rare safety good enough to influence an offensive coordinator’s game plan, not simply a quarterback’s pre-snap reads. But Penn State, especially if Carter plays, is good enough with their front 7 to slow the Fighting Irish run game and make Leonard make plays with his arm. As good as Leonard has been this season, he has struggled to test talented Power 4 defenses with his arm.

In a matchup this tight, the little things are magnified. The issue with picking a winner at the margins is both teams have edges in critical areas. Notre Dame is a great fundamentals team. The Irish tackle well and protect the football. But Penn State has the edge at kicker and might be more reliable on the handful of possessions in a game where a great kicker is necessary.

In vanquishing Georgia, Notre Dame put to rest any notion they can’t win big games under Freeman.

In manhandling SMU and Boise State, Penn State showed it could outclass lesser opponents.

Perhaps that’s the difference. On account of the draw alone, this game will “feel” bigger for Penn State. Allar is a magnificent talent. He also hasn’t faced a defense as complete as Notre Dame’s since a 20-13 loss to Ohio State in State College in November. I think Notre Dame’s secondary — and Watts in particular — makes a huge play late. That will be the difference in a classic we’ll talk about for a long time.

Prediction: Notre Dame 21, Penn State 19