Everything — and we mean everything — you really need to know about Thursday night’s College Football Playoff semifinal collision between Notre Dame (-1.5 via FanDuel) and Penn State.

Rich history. Huge, long-suffering fan bases. Classic, spartan uniforms. Head coaches whose every decision, utterance and facial expression is scrutinized to the nth degree. Three decades and counting on the margins of national relevance. A national championship drought stretching back to the Reagan administration. Year after year of being close, but never quite close enough that the opportunity felt real in an era dominated by the South.

Fighting Irish, meet Nittany Lions. Y’all have a lot in common.

OK, not that Notre Dame or Penn State has suffered that much. Even at their lowest, neither has ever wandered as deep into the wilderness as, say, fellow late 20th-Century powers Nebraska and Miami. They’ve both had their moments in the 21st: Penn State has claimed 4 Big Ten titles (most recently in 2016), along with a handful of top-10 finishes and appearances in major bowl games; Notre Dame has earned national title shots under both the BCS (2012) and the College Football Playoff (2018 and 2020). They have never stopped spending, recruiting, or expecting to compete at a championship level, and occasionally have.

Still, for a couple of prominent programs that have been defined largely by their failure to break through on the big stage, the biggest prize has not felt this attainable in a long, long time. Penn State never appeared in the College Football Playoff field under the 4-team format, and hasn’t played in a “national championship game,” in any guise, since its historic upset over Miami in the Fiesta Bowl to win the 1986 title. Notre Dame’s title bids this century have all ended in humiliation, a series of start-to-finish blowouts in games the Irish entered as decisive underdogs and limped away from feeling as far away from the sport’s elite caste as ever. The last Irish team to make an actually convincing case for itself as a national contender was the 1993 outfit that lost the debate in the final polls.

Of course, that’s all ancient history to the players shouldering all those emotions in Miami, few of whom remember most of the disappointments and even fewer of whom probably care. They’re focused on their own opportunities, not redeeming nearly two generation’s worth of angst. For once, though, there is no doubt in this wide-open battle royale of a season that the opportunity is real.

Both teams made the cut for the 12-team field with room to spare, and both have left little doubt through the first 2 rounds that they belong among the true high-stakes contenders in 2024. Penn State dispatched its first 2 opponents, SMU and Boise State, by a combined 45 points, never trailing in either game. The Irish snapped a decades-long skid in meaningful postseason games by smothering Indiana in Round 1 and Georgia in Round 2, the single-most validating Notre Dame win since the ’93 team beat Florida State. One of these teams is going to play for the whole enchilada on Jan. 20, and whichever one it is will have a fair shot at winning it.

And, yes, the other will be left to play the bridesmaid again, burdened by the weight of a missed opportunity until the next one comes along, however long that might take. At this point in the proceedings, disappointment comes with the territory. Right now, though, it’s all right in front of them. As long as these programs have waited for this moment already, it’s one to savor for all it’s worth.

Best players on the field

1. Penn State TE Tyler Warren • 91.0 PFF grade | 1,158 yards, 8 TDs receiving | 7th in Heisman vote

2. Notre Dame DB Xavier Watts • 87.2 PFF | 13 career INTs + 17 PBUs | All-American in ’23 and ’24

3. Penn State RB Nick Singleton • 79.6 PFF | 3,563 career scrimmage yards | 37 TDs

4. Penn State RB Kaytron Allen • 81.5 PFF | 3,211 career scrimmage yards | 28 TDs

5. Penn State QB Drew Allar • 85.4 PFF | 78.1 QBR | 53 TD/9 INTs career | 24-4 as starter

6. Notre Dame LB Jack Kiser • 80.2 PFF | 260 career tackles | 4 career INTs + 6 forced fumbles

7. Notre Dame DL Howard Cross III • 72.0 PFF | 21 career TFLs | Projected mid-round draft pick

8. Notre Dame CB Leonard Moore • 88.7 PFF | 2 INTs + 10 PBUs | Freshman All-American

9. Notre Dame DB Adon Shuler • 74.8 PFF | 52 tackles | 3 INTs + 5 PBUs

10. Penn State OL Ola Ioane • 73.7 PFF | 0 sacks allowed | 2nd-team All-Big Ten

In the pocket: Can Notre Dame heat up Drew Allar?

This preview is full of sleek, NFL-ready terrors off the edge – none of whom play for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame’s most productive edge rusher, Junior Tuihalamaka, comes in with just 3 sacks. Instead, the Irish generate pressure by committee, and that committee has done its best work right up the gut. The team sack leaders, Rylie Mills, Howard Cross III and Donovan Hinish, are all undersized interior players who kept the pass rush afloat with some combination of tenacity and scheme.

Not for nothing, Mills’ absence in the Sugar Bowl due to a knee injury was one of the major storylines going into that game opposite a fully intact Georgia offensive line. Surprisingly, though, he wasn’t missed. If anything, the shorthanded front turned in its most relentless pass-rushing effort to date, pressuring UGA’s Gunner Stockton on 53.8% of his drop-backs with 4 sacks, per Pro Football Focus. Some of that success was the result of a blitz-heavy game plan by defensive coordinator Al Golden that sent an extra rusher on roughly half of those reps; linebackers and defensive backs accounted for 10 of the Irish’s 21 pressures.

But the unsung edge rushers made their presence felt, too. Tuihalamaka tied a career high with 4 pressures (sack included), and his fellow bookend, Duke transfer RJ Oben, made his first sack in an Irish uniform count, flying around the corner to strip Stockton on the biggest play yet of Notre Dame’s season. The fumble set up the Irish’s only offensive touchdown, extending their narrow lead to double digits and putting them in firmly in control for good.

Getting to a fledgling QB making his first career start is one thing; rattling Allar, who now qualifies as a seasoned vet with 2 full seasons as a starter, is another. Penn State’s rebuilt o-line remains a work in progress – no surprise following the departure of 3 draft picks from the 2023 front, including a first-rounder at left tackle. Allar’s pressure rates have ticked up accordingly, especially in the postseason: SMU and Boise State combined for as many sacks in the first 2 rounds (7) as Allar absorbed in the entirety of Big Ten play (8).

Man-for-man, Penn State matches up against Notre Dame’s front four personnel just fine; on paper, it’s arguably advantage Lions. But that was even more true for Georgia’s blue-chip front, and we know how that turned out. If the same pass rush that ambushed the Bulldogs in NOLA survives the trip to Miami, you can throw the paper out the window.

On the ground: Does Penn State have patience for the grind?

Every Penn State team that has ever come within spitting distance of national relevance has boasted a central-casting workhorse in the backfield. (Here’s a reminder of just how long the list of memorable Penn State running backs is, if you need a refresher.) This team boasts 2: Juniors Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are the first duo in school history to run for 1,000 yards in the same season despite splitting touches for the third year in a row. They’re not exactly interchangeable – Allen packs a wallop, Singleton has the extra gear in the open field – but they are both big, versatile and durable. In 3 postseason games, they’ve accounted for roughly 57% of the team’s total offense and 6 touchdowns.

Offenses have had some success in nickel-and-diming Notre Dame’s defense on the ground, most notably in the regular-season finale against USC. Excluding sacks and scrambles, Trojans running backs ran for 187 yards on an alarming 8.5 per carry, most of that coming courtesy of a couple of little-used freshmen. But even the ones that have managed to make a dent have not sustained it (or had the opportunity, with most of them relegated to comeback mode by halftime), and the Irish have been among the best in the country at keeping the lid on, allowing just 3 runs of 30+ yards. Two of those 3 runs were by a triple-option quarterback, Navy’s Blake Horvath, in a 51-14 blowout; the third, a 46-yard zone-read gallop by Louisville QB Tyler Shough, ended with Shough fumbling the ball away.

Whatever living opposing running backs have managed to scratch out, they’ve come by it the hard way.

Notre Dame’s marginal size between the tackles is a nagging concern, especially with the 295-pound Mills on the shelf. Neither Cross (6-1, 288) nor Hinish (6-2, 278) is shaped like a typical Big Ten-sized run stuffer. They bent slightly against Georgia’s massive o-line but never broke, limiting the Bulldogs to 99 yards on 4.0 per carry (excluding sacks); they also benefited from the fact that UGA trailed by double digits throughout the second half.

It’s no coincidence that nearly half of Singleton and Allen’s 17 rushing touchdowns this year have come in the 4th quarter: Penn State’s front, which tips the scales at 318 pounds per man, is built to wear down defenses. Tackling a couple of 225-pounders with oak-tree thighs gets old fast, and only gets older as the night wears on. The longer the scoreboard allows the Lions to slug it out, the bigger the creases are likely to get.

Down the field: Is there an answer for Tyler Warren?

Warren has not singlehandedly answered the Nittany Lions’ prayers for a big-play receiving threat, but his impact on the passing game is hard to overstate. A Gronk-caliber size/speed mismatch at 6-6, 261 pounds, he’s emerged in his 5th and final season as one of the most bankable targets in the country, accounting for 98 catches, 63 first downs and 8 touchdowns vs. only 3 drops on 128 targets. Just as important, his dominance in the short-to-intermediate range has been a factor in opening things up downfield for Penn State’s actual wideouts, an aspect of the offense that was dormant in 2023.

Allar has completed twice as many attempts of 20+ air yards this year (22) as he did last year (11), the majority of those connections going to Harrison Wallace III and the resident deep threat, Omari Evans. A resident deep threat! At Penn State! Between them, Wallace and Evans averaged 17.0 yards per catch with 9 touchdowns, while opposing safeties’ attention remained squarely focused on the every-down threat posed by Warren.

Notre Dame’s safeties, Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler, are quietly among the best back-end tandems in the college game. Well, not so quietly in Watts’ case – he was a consensus All-American for the second year in a row, following up a 7-INT breakthrough in 2023 with a 6-INT encore in ’24. Shuler was the dark horse, breaking into the lineup as a redshirt freshman and nabbing 3 interceptions in his first year as a starter. Neither has allowed a touchdown in coverage, per PFF.

On the other hand, both are listed in the 6-foot, 200-pound range, a decided disadvantage against the towering Warren on contested catches. Watts can certainly climb the ladder when he needs to, but defending No. 44 is more like climbing a tree.

Best players on the field

1. Penn State Edge Abdul Carter* • 90.8 PFF grade | Big Ten DPOY | All-American

2. Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love* • 91.6 PFF | 1,076 yards, 16 TDs rushing | 7.3 yards/carry

3. Penn State LB Kobe King • 88.5 PFF | 88 tackles (9 TFLs) | 2nd-team All-Big Ten

4. Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard • 83.1 PFF | 77.5 QBR | 42 TDs/16 INTs career | 26-9 as starter

5. Penn State DB Jaylen Reed • 67.8 PFF | 92 tackles (6 TFLs) | 3 INTs | 2nd-team All-Big Ten

6. Penn State Edge Dani Dennis-Sutton • 68.4 PFF | 41 QB pressures + 11 TFLs (6.5 sacks)

7. Penn State DB Zakee Wheatley • 74.7 PFF | 80 tackles | 2 INTs + 4 PBUs

8. Penn State CB A.J. Harris • 79.3 PFF | 1 INT + 4 PBUs

9. Notre Dame TE Mitchell Evans • 63.6 PFF | 793 yards, 4 TDs receiving in 2023-24

10. Notre Dame OT Aamil Wagner • 80.4 PFF | 835 snaps (most on team) | 1 sack allowed * Status TBD

In the pocket: What’s up with Abdul Carter?

Before the season, I admit, the notion that Carter was channeling the spirit of Micah freakin’ Parsons in his move from linebacker to edge seemed a little bit contrived. By year’s end, the resemblance was undeniable.

In his first year on the edge, Carter did the No. 11 jersey justice, emerging as college football’s best pass rusher and arguably as the best defensive player, period — a unanimous All-American, Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, and week-in, week-out difference-maker. He ranked in the top 10 nationally in pressures (58), sacks (11) and tackles for loss (21.5), to go with elite PFF grades across the board. Depending on how you classify Travis Hunter, Carter has a realistic shot at being the first defender off the board in April’s NFL Draft.

Is he playing on Thursday night? As of this writing, the answer is a big fat TBD. Carter was a spectator for the second half of the Lions’ Fiesta Bowl win over Boise State due to a shoulder injury, and his status in the meantime has been suspended in day-to-day limbo. It’s not just a matter of getting the green light from doctors: The bigger question, according to his head coach, is whether a less-than-100-percent version of Carter will be effective enough to be his usual, disruptive self. “At this point, I don’t think there’s anything that is stopping him from playing, but it’s just, it’s going to come down to how is he able to play,” James Franklin told reporters earlier this week. “We’ll see. We’ll see.”

The Lions saw all they needed to see against Boise, when Carter’s absence was palpable. After a miserable first half, the Broncos moved the ball consistently, scoring on their first possession after halftime and mounting sustained drives well into PSU territory on 4 of their next 5 turns with the ball. True, none of those possessions resulted in points, ending on a pair of clutch interceptions and a missed field goal. In real time, though, Penn State fans would be lying if they told you there wasn’t a moment of real anxiety while the team’s best player looked on.

Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard is gettable, but behind Carter, the options for turning up the temperature without bringing extra rushers are thin. The other edge starter, junior Dani Dennis-Sutton, was solid enough for the “other guy,” despite being limited by a midseason groin injury; the Lions would love to see him finally break out on a big stage, regardless of who’s on the opposite end of the line. The third wheel in the rotation, senior Amin Vanover, is a career backup who’d have been a starter long ago at most places. Behind him… crickets. The question mark next to Carter’s name is the biggest x-factor of the game.

On the ground: Can Notre Dame stay ahead of the sticks?

While Penn State sweats out the status of its defensive headliner, the Fighting Irish are keeping their fingers crossed over their offensive headliner, sophomore RB Jeremiyah Love. At full speed, Love is one of the most explosive backs around, as the rest of the country learned courtesy of his 98-yard touchdown run against Indiana in the first round, his 4th run of 60+ yards on the year. How close to full speed he’ll be after aggravating a lingering ankle injury in the second half of the Sugar Bowl, well, we’ll see. Love is expected to play, barring a last-minute setback, but was also spotted over the weekend moving gingerly in a knee brace during an open practice. Even before bowing out of the game, Love was a nonfactor against Georgia, finishing with 19 yards on 6 carries.

One way or another, Notre Dame has to find a way to stay on schedule on 1st and 2nd down to keep the playbook open on 3rd. The offense has been abysmal on 3rd-and-long, to put it mildly, converting just 11-of-74 attempts (14.8%) on 3rd-and-7 or more. Meanwhile, on 3rd-and-6 or less, the conversion rate leaps to 54%, with conversions split evenly between run and pass.

Third-and-manageable is Leonard’s comfort zone. An underrated and effective runner, he’s accounted for 888 rushing yards (excluding sacks), 56 first downs and 15 touchdowns, the majority of that output coming after contact.

With Love and his running mate, Jadarian Price, bottled up against Georgia, Leonard assumed the role of feature back, running for 89 yards and 7 first downs with 6 missed tackles forced, per PFF. His legs were the main reason the Irish managed to extend drives, chew clock and amass a 6-minute advantage in time of possession in the second half. Again, especially if Love is less than 100%, they’ll need as much of that from their crafty veteran quarterback as they can get.

Down the field: Where’s the juice?

The quarterback’s role in the ground game is critical, because Penn State frankly has little reason to fear Leonard’s arm. Notre Dame’s passing attack was one of the lowest-octane in the country. Among power-conference starters, Leonard ranked in the bottom 10 in yards per attempt (6.8), average depth of target (7.5 yards), completions that gained 30+ yards (9), and the percentage of his total attempts that traveled 20+ air yards (10.6%). The 6 regulars in the wide receiver rotation averaged a pedestrian 11.7 yards per catch with more drops (15) than touchdowns (10). In the win over Georgia, in particular, Leonard barely even considered challenging the Dawgs downfield, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt with a long gain of 14. He finished with a season-low 90 yards — but that was the 8th time he failed to crack 170.

If you’re being charitable, you could chalk that up to a lack of urgency: Notre Dame has led virtually from start to finish in every game since its inexplicable Week 2 loss against Northern Illinois, and run the ball at will in most of them – why bother airing it out? In their past 3 games alone the Irish have scored explosive touchdowns courtesy of the defense (2 pick-6 TDs against USC), running game (Jeremiyah Love’s coast-to-coast TD against Indiana), and special teams (a 98-yard kickoff return against Georgia), rendering the downfield passing game an afterthought.

In a pinch, though, who’s the guy who stretches the field, commands respect, forces Penn State to think twice about crowding the line of scrimmage? Sophomore Jordan Faison, a walk-on from the lacrosse team, has emerged lately as an unlikely target underneath, joining workmanlike tight end Mitchell Evans as the primary chain-movers. But there’s no one who figures to make an opposing cornerback’s heart beat any faster on an island.

Boise State, which faced a similar problem in the Fiesta Bowl, made hay downfield by exploiting a busted coverage, catching the Lions with their pants down for a 53-yard touchdown. The receiver, a tight end who’d cut against the grain of a play-action fake, was so wide open no Penn State defender even appeared in the frame until he was crossing the goal line. Unless Notre Dame’s entire receiving corps has been playing possum, its best chance of a quick strike might be OC Mike Denbrock digging deep into the playbook to engineer some confusion of his own.

Special teams, injuries and other vagaries

As a team, Notre Dame ranks dead last nationally in field-goal percentage for the season at 54.2%. But that number is skewed by a dismal stretch over the second half of the season following a groin injury to the primary kicker, South Carolina transfer Mitch Jeter, who was 1-for-5 in November. Coming off a few weeks’ rest, Jeter has looked like his old, reliable self in the Playoff, connecting on 5-of-6 attempts against Indiana and Georgia, including successful kicks from 44, 48 and 47 yards in the Sugar Bowl.

Jeter still has not connected on a 50-yarder at Notre Dame — his career long at South Carolina was from 51 — but he has won back his team’s trust, which in what figures to be a defensively-driven game could sway the Irish’s decision-making when the offense is within his range.

His Penn State counterpart, redshirt freshman Ryan Barker, has been perfectly cromulent since taking over place-kicking duties at midseason, hitting 14-of-17 field goal attempts overall and 6-of-9 from 40+ yards. He’s had limited opportunities from long distance, but his long, a 49-yarder against Maryland, suggests he has the leg if necessary. The Lions would rather not find themselves in the position to find out.

The punters, as long as they’re getting the ball off cleanly, can be safely ignored. The return game is more interesting, mostly due to Notre Dame’s Jayden Harrison, who broke the Georgia game wide open after halftime on a 98-yard kickoff return that set the tone for the rest of the second half.

For Irish fans wondering all year why Harrison was worth poaching from Marshall: That’s why. It was the first kickoff he’s taken to the house for Notre Dame, but the 4th of his career, the previous 3 having come during his 3-year stint with the Thundering Herd.

For Penn State, Nick Singleton is more than 2 years removed from his only career kickoff return TD but remains a perennial threat in that role; he broke a couple of big returns covering 66 and 97 yards in November, as well as a pair of 50+ yarders in 2023. Every fair catch and touchback Thursday night should come with a small sigh of relief.

Worth noting: Notre Dame has been unusually good at blocking kicks, tying for the national lead with 6 blocks (of field goals, PATs, and punts) on the year. Three of those were credited to 6-7 freshman Bryce Young, who was close to returning another punt to sender on Georgia’s opening possession of the Sugar Bowl but wound up getting flagged 5 yards for running into the punter instead. When the timing is right, Young’s length is a potentially game-changing asset in that capacity. For their part, the Nittany Lions had a field-goal attempt and a punt blocked in the regular season.

Injury-wise, all intrigue is reserved for Abdul Carter’s shoulder. Otherwise, the most notable names on the casualty list – Penn State safety Kevin Winston Jr. and Notre Dame cornerback Benjamin Morrison, both future pros – have been there for most of the season due to knee and hip injuries, respectively. Their replacements, Zakee Wheatley and Leonard Moore, are well-entrenched by now.

For the Irish, Riley Mills’ absence on the d-line was a non-issue in the win over Georgia. For the Lions, the only other would-be starter projected to be on the shelf in Miami is redshirt freshman OL Anthony Donkoh, who suffered a knee injury in the Lions’ Week 13 win over Minnesota. His replacement at right tackle, Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci, was already a regular in the lineup prior to being elevated to a starter, and has been Penn State’s top-graded o-lineman per PFF in all 4 games since.

Bottom line

Stylistically and statistically these teams are mirror images: Good-not-great quarterbacks; deep backfields; steady, anonymous offensive lines; first-rate defenses. Running the ball and stopping the run. First-year offensive coordinators with just enough tricks up their sleeve to keep things spicy. Multiple injuries to key defenders. Rosters that look virtually identical according to both the Team Talent Composite and the Blue-Chip Ratio. Seize-the-day vibes after 30 years with their faces pressed up to the glass. There’s a reason this point spread is as slim as it is.

Notre Dame has one thing Penn State doesn’t: A win over a bona fide, blue-chip contender, Georgia. The Nittany Lions’ Playoff wins over SMU and Boise State, convincing as they were, don’t inspire nearly as much confidence that their big-game curse is broken. But Penn State has 2 things that Notre Dame doesn’t: 1), a viable downfield passing attack; and 2), a reliable game-wrecker on defense, Abdul Carter (if he’s healthy, of course).

Picking this game would be a heck of a lot easier of Carter’s status and effectiveness were more certain. Either way, though, Penn State’s receivers (including Tyler Warren, who has no equivalent at Notre Dame or anywhere else in the college game) have demonstrated the ability to stress a defense in a way that the Fighting Irish have not. In a game that can go either way, it only takes 1 explosive play to swing the whole thing.

The Pick: • Penn State 23 | Notre Dame 19