I think Kirk Herbstreit is one of the best college football analysts in the business. I don’t think he gets enough credit for the amount of information he breaks down on a weekly basis. I’ve always viewed him as sort of the voice of reason on the College GameDay crew.

But I completely disagreed with something he said on Saturday morning.

Herbstreit claimed that the loser of Saturday’s game in Columbus was eliminated from the College Football Playoff. Yes, that included No. 2 Penn State, which entered its showdown against Ohio State without a loss. That seemed dead wrong.

After all, no one-loss team is truly eliminated from Playoff contention in October, much less the No. 2 team in America. Ohio State wasn’t eliminated when it lost its first game in stunning fashion at unranked Penn State last year. In fact, Herbstreit claimed that OSU was still control its own Playoff destiny despite the loss.

He completely overlooked the possibility that the Lions could run the table, win the B1G East, beat Wisconsin in the B1G Championship and give the Buckeyes a good run for their money for a Playoff spot.

On Saturday, it was Penn State that couldn’t prevail on the road in what turned out to be an instant classic. According to Herbstreit’s pregame declaration, the Lions’ Playoff chances should’ve died in Columbus.

But was that really the case? Is Penn State dead just like that?

Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Contrary to what Herbstreit said, Penn State is technically not out of it. The Lions will likely be ranked in the back end of the top 10 when the first College Football Playoff poll is released on Tuesday night. The idea that they can’t climb a few spots with a month of football left is comical.

But unlike what Herbstreit said about Ohio State last year, Penn State does not control its own destiny this year. The Lions will need help in several ways.

Why?

Let’s start with the obvious. Ohio State is 5-0 in B1G play and Penn State is 4-1. The Buckeyes basically have a two-game lead on the Lions because they have the head-to-head tiebreaker. So yes, an 8-1 OSU team wins the B1G East over an 8-1 PSU team. You already knew that.

Here’s what you might not have known. Quietly in Evanston, that Michigan State loss to Northwestern was brutal for the Lions, too. That meant MSU is also now 4-1 in conference play. That means the Lions can no longer be saved by a three-way tie atop the B1G East standings.

Penn State could’ve been looking at a three-way tie with Michigan State and Ohio State at 8-1 in B1G play. Instead, that can’t happen anymore. If PSU wins out, MSU would be 7-2 at best. Even if the Spartans upset the Buckeyes, it would still only be a two-way tie between Ohio State and Penn State.

So yeah, MSU didn’t do the Lions any favors on Saturday.

Penn State’s odds of reaching another B1G Championship took a major hit on Saturday. We already knew that.

Ironically enough, though, the Lions’ best path to a Playoff spot is the same one OSU took last year. You know, the one that Penn State fans couldn’t stand. The Lions can dominate the rest of their schedule, be a one-loss team without a conference title and hope that OSU loses at least one more time.

Last year, the selection committee didn’t care that two-loss Penn State had the head-to-head advantage vs. one-loss OSU and that it won a conference title. The committee still favored the Buckeyes because they only had one loss. The Lions, who have been far more dominant than the 2016 Buckeyes were, could force the committee to look extremely hypocritical.

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None of that happens, of course, unless Ohio State loses another game. If the Buckeyes play like they did down the stretch against Penn State, that won’t happen against MSU or Michigan.

And that might not even be enough. With potentially two unbeaten SEC teams and Notre Dame vying for three of the four spots, the margin for error might already be gone.

That’s the crushing part about the way Saturday unfolded. With the MSU loss, Penn State could’ve put itself in the B1G East and Playoff driver’s seat with potentially a loss to give. All it had to do was not blow to an 18-point lead. A road win at Ohio State would’ve been among the best of any in college football in 2017.

But that’s not Penn State’s reality. It couldn’t hold on to the game, nor could it hold on to control of its Playoff destiny.

Herbstreit might’ve been premature to declare the loser of Saturday’s game out of the hunt. MSU altered a once-possible path Penn State had to a B1G East title and potentially a College Football Playoff berth.

The Lions need help or else Herbstreit’s prophecy will be all too real. Again.