The Penn State Nittany Lions are in the 2024 College Football Playoff as the 6th seed, and will host a first-round game Saturday afternoon at Beaver Stadium – taking on No. 11 SMU out of the ACC.

The Nittany Lions are favored by 8.5 points, via FanDuel Sportsbook.

That’s all fine and good for Penn State, which navigated a relatively easy Big Ten slate this season with a few speed bumps (we see you, USC and Minnesota) and 2 very high-profile losses to fellow Playoff-bound Big Ten teams (Ohio State and Oregon in the B1G title game).

In the convoluted mess that was the national college football picture, the sum of those parts meant the 11-2 Nittany Lions weren’t sweating the Playoff selection committee’s cloak-and-dagger decision-making like some other teams.

But what went wrong for Penn State in those 2 losses? That isn’t an easy answer, primarily because it isn’t an easy question.

So let’s dissect …

Riding high from a 7-0 start, then-No. 3 Penn State welcomed then-No. 4 Ohio State to Happy Valley on Nov. 2 intent to alter the Big Ten hierarchy. Yes, the Nittany Lions rallied to escape USC with a 33-30 overtime victory 3 weeks prior, but what team doesn’t overcome a radar blip like that at some point in the season?

Unlike the outing against the Trojans, though, Penn State struggled offensively against the Buckeyes. Twice the Nittany Lions drove inside the 5-yard line, and twice they walked away with a fistful of air. Quarterback Drew Allar was the culprit on both empty red-zone efforts, as the junior threw an end-zone interception on the first and dealt a 4th-down incompletion on the second.

Find the promised land on either drive and it is an entirely different story against a Buckeyes team that didn’t exactly find great footing against a salty Penn State defense. Remember, the Nittany Lions led 10-0 after Zion Tracy’s pick-6 against Will Howard. But when the game mattered, Penn State’s defense bent to Ohio State’s will on a game-sealing drive featuring 11 consecutive runs straight into the Nittany Lions’ mush.

That could’ve been a deal-breaker for Penn State, but instead it rattled off 4 more wins (including a 26-25 survival at Minnesota) to make the Big Ten Championship Game against No. 1 Oregon. Unlike the defensive-themed slugfest in Happy Valley, the Dec. 8 B1G Battle was all about offense.

The Nittany Lions and Ducks combined for 992 yards of offense and 52 first downs in a game that felt more like the Indianapolis 500. Penn State outgained Oregon 523-469, but defensive lapses against the unbeaten Ducks left PSU in a 28-10 first-half hole that the offense couldn’t dig out of. Not that Penn State’s offense – maligned at times for underwhelming in big-time moments – didn’t try.

Playing for its 1st conference title since 2016, Allar threw 3 touchdown passes and running back Kaytron Allen rushed for 124 yards and another TD. But against an Oregon offense that piled up 37.9 points per game in 2024, the Nittany Lions simply couldn’t keep up the pace.

SMU sophomore quarterback Kevin Jennings could prove a major issue for Penn State’s defense Saturday afternoon, as he has thrown for 3,050 yards and 22 touchdowns along with scrambling for 379 rushing yards on 93 carries and 5 TDs. That versatility, combined with running back Brashard Smith and more quality wide receivers you can shake a stick at, could give SMU multiple ways to exploit gaps in the Nittany Lions’ defense.

Penn State will clearly want to control the ball and clock as much as possible at Beaver Stadium on a day that expected to be frigid (a high of 28 degrees) and windy. Those conditions favor Penn State’s defense, but will Mother Nature be enough of a factor against an SMU offense that ranks 5th in the nation in scoring offense with 39.9 points per game?

Poke fun at SMU’s schedule, particularly its friendly ACC slate, but the Mustangs scored 4 TDs (or more) in each of their past 10 games — including against Clemson in the ACC title game.

Keeping it close in the frosty weather could mirror the Ohio State game, or engaging in an offensive shootout could harken to the title-game loss to Oregon. For Penn State, picking which poison best suits its chances to win will be paramount.

Either way, the Nittany Lions’ defense – a unit that allowed only 16.4 points per game – is likely where victory and a date against 3rd-seeded Boise State on New Year’s Eve will hinge. Which means players like junior defensive end Abdul Carter (20 tackles for loss, 10 sacks) and senior safety Jaylen Reed (team-best 79 tackles) will need to be at their absolute peak — or Penn State’s potentially breakthrough season under James Franklin will end in another heartbreak.