In just two years, Jeff Brohm has already brought up the expectation levels in West Lafayette.

After four forgettable seasons under Darrell Hazell, Brohm has restored some life in the Purdue program, guiding the Boilermakers to back-to-back bowl appearances in 2017 and 2018. Even though last year ended on a sour note (a 63-14 loss to Auburn in the Music City Bowl), there’s excitement around the direction the program is headed.

Purdue is coming off a 6-7 season, which included upset wins over Boston College, Iowa and Ohio State. Rondale Moore returns as one of the top B1G players in the Heisman race, as well as a slew of incoming freshmen wide receivers poised to make a big impact.

And in a wide-open West, Purdue has as good a shot as any to win a divsion title this fall. What does ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) think about the Boilermakers’ chances, though?

It’s not great, favored in just three games.

Here’s how ESPN’s FPI is projecting every game on Purdue’s 2019 schedule:

  • August 30: at Nevada — 64.5% win probability
  • September 7: vs. Vanderbilt — 48.5% win probability
  • September 14: vs. TCU — 34.9% win probability
  • September 28: vs. Minnesota — 33.6% win probability
  • October 5: at Penn State — 9.6% win probability
  • October 12: vs. Maryland — 64.0% win probability
  • October 19: at Iowa — 17.3% win probability
  • October 26: vs. Illinois — 69.6 win probability
  • November 2: vs. Nebraska — 35.7% win probability
  • November 9: at Northwestern — 34.3% win probability
  • November 23: at Wisconsin — 28.1% win probability
  • November 30: vs. Indiana — 45.0% win probability