A year after Purdue won 9 games, including a thriller over Tennessee in the Music City Bowl, the Boilermakers have their eyes set on a bigger target: competing for a Big Ten West title.

And they could do it, particularly if they establish playmakers on offense to pair with veteran QB Aidan O’Connell and make enough plays on defense. But danger lurks too, even within a schedule that appears to be favorable.

Let’s take a look at 5 dream scenarios for Jeff Brohm’s Boilermakers. And 5 disasters.

DREAM SCENARIOS

Beat the Lions

With its eyes set on competing in the Big Ten West, Purdue knows its opener — the Boilermakers are a slight underdog to Penn State at home — will set the tone for the rest of the season.

And they play like it. Behind Aidan O’Connell’s continued strong play, as he tosses for 350 yards and 4 touchdowns, Purdue takes control against PSU late in the second quarter, when the quarterback hits newcomer Charlie Jones with a 57-yard touchdown. The Boilermakers don’t look back after halftime, extending their lead to as many as 17.

The win checks Purdue in at No. 24 in the following week’s AP poll, the Boilermakers’ earliest appearance since the 2005 season. And they don’t stop there, as wins vs. Indiana State, Syracuse and FAU follow, helping Purdue reach as high as 16th in the polls.

But the Big Ten brings challenges. The Boilermakers split on their road trip to Minnesota and Maryland, as questions about the defense arise: Outside of Jalen Graham, who are the play-makers? But O’Connell’s offense — Jones and fellow Iowa transfer Tyrone Tracy have been outstanding — lead the Boilermakers to an undefeated record at home, as Purdue enjoys convincing wins over Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern, plus Purdue beats Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket.

Purdue gets to 9 wins in the regular-season, but it falls short of a Big Ten West crown.

Early impact

Purdue exits camp with at least a half dozen transfers who expect to make big impacts.

But 2 — receivers Jones and Tracy — are the headliners, and the Boilermakers certainly need them to come up big. And they do. During the regular season, in which the Boilermakers win 10 games by getting off to a 6-1 start, Jones and Tracy combine for 115 receptions for 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns. And Jones has a punt return for a score, which turns out to be critical in the win at Maryland, and Tracy scores on 3 rushing attempts, 1 of them late in a closer-than-anticipated victory over Indiana that puts the Boilermakers in position for a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Purdue had high hopes for Tracy and Jones before the season began, but few could have anticipated they’d help spur the Boilermakers to 10 wins and a trip to Pasadena.

Heisman hopes?

A year ago at this time, almost nobody outside of West Lafayette — or certainly outside of Big Ten Country — even knew who Aidan O’Connell was.

Now, the 6th-year quarterback is widely considered the 2nd-best quarterback in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State’s CJ Stroud. But as the games click by, O’Connell closes that gap, and turns himself into a dark horse contender to be in New York City for the Heisman Trophy ceremony at the end of the season.

O’Connell is great early, harkening back to the great run of Kyle Orton at the start of the 2004 season. But ’04 fell apart on the Boilermakers, due to a fumble — Purdue fans still don’t want to remember Orton’s topple that cost the Wisconsin game — and injuries. In ’22, however, O’Connell keeps it going, finishing with 4,300 yards passing, with 32 touchdowns and 6 interceptions as he leads Purdue to 9 regular-season wins. Had Purdue only won at Wisconsin, then maybe O’Connell could have picked up a needed marquee victory to wow Heisman voters. As it stands, he receives votes, but not enough to get him to NYC.

Defense thrives

As Purdue entered last season, Brohm vowed that the defense would play more aggressively, matching the personality of his offense. It did, and the results were better than what many could have expected.

Things have changed since then, however, most notably co-coordinator Ron English has taken over the play-calling duties after Brad Lambert, who was a co-DC for only a season at Purdue, took off for Wake Forest.

But with English calling the plays, Purdue shows that it can continue to thrive on the defensive side. It’s different than a year ago; the Boilermakers have to use more of a collective, getting production from a D-line that has a ton of depth but lacks a star following George Karlaftis’ early departure for the NFL. Purdue, though, finds other playmakers, particularly in its secondary. Cornerback Cory Trice, who missed most of last season with ankle and knee injuries, returns to have a huge impact, coming up with game-changing interceptions in wins over Penn State, Minnesota and Indiana. Safety Christopher Jefferson proves to be a fine replacement for Marvin Grant, who shockingly transferred to Kansas in the middle of the summer.

But it’s Jalen Graham who turns into the biggest star. The hybrid safety/linebacker is all over the field, and like Karlaftis a year ago, his teammates follow his lead.

Last season, it was the defense that helped Purdue early while the offense was slow to find its groove. This year, the defense finds its stride late in the season and is a big reason why the Boilermakers eke out wins against Iowa and Illinois, the latter a 17-13 victory in cold, rainy Champaign. Purdue finds its way to 9 regular-season victories.

All right

Everything goes right for Purdue.

In front of a super-charged crowd in Ross-Ade Stadium, the Boilermakers make big plays in all 3 phases to get a season-opening win over Penn State, getting 3 TDs from O’Connell, a Jones’ punt return for a score and a game-saving interception from safety Cam Allen. And the Boilermakers are off. They beat Indiana State, Syracuse and FAU to roll to 4-0 and set up a showdown at Minnesota.

Under PJ Fleck, the Gophers are 4-1 vs. Purdue, but the Boilermakers get the better end of this one, with O’Connell throwing for 400 yards and 4 scores, one of them going to tight end Payne Durham, a little redemption for the phantom PI that cost the Boilermakers a couple years ago.

The win is costly, though, and Trice and Jabari Brown are nicked up for the following game at Maryland, a bad time to be missing the starting corners, and the Terrapins take advantage. The Boilermakers rebound in Madison, though, a week later, beating the Badgers in Camp Randall for the first time since 2003.

Could Purdue win the West?

The Boilermakers continue to have Iowa’s number the next Saturday — this time, it’s former Hawkeye Tracy who is the Purdue WR to torment the Iowa secondary — as they pick up another win. And then Purdue closes it out, with O’Connell accounting for 12 TDs as he overwhelms Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana in the final 3 weeks.

Purdue finishes 11-1, wins the West and gets its ticket to the Big Ten Championship.

DISASTER SCENARIOS

AOC out

Purdue exits training camp feeling like it has its deepest team during the 6 years of the Brohm Era.

But the one guy it can’t afford to lose: O’Connell.

Yet here the Boilermakers stand, with the QB out for the start of the season due to an injury. It leaves Purdue with veteran Austin Burton as the starter, and while he’s capable, he’s not O’Connell. The former UCLA signal-caller, who did start 1 game in his SoCal career, can’t get it done in the opener, nor in the game 2 weeks later at Syracuse. A win vs. FAU has the Boilermakers sitting 2-2, but O’Connell’s not due back for another 3 weeks. Purdue falls twice on the road trip to Minnesota and Maryland. And then, despite the return of O’Connell, the Boilermaker offense is flat vs. Nebraska and then does what it typically does in Madison a week later.

Purdue is 8 games into the season, has lost 4 straight and sits 2-6.

Win the winnables

After a season in which the Boilermakers picked up 9 victories for the program’s first time since 2003, the expectations are high for a repeat, or even more.

But Purdue can’t get over the hump. It wins the games its favored in: Indiana State, Syracuse, FAU, Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana, but loses the others, and so it finishes with a 6-6 record. The whole things just feels so meh, especially considering Purdue had thought it’d compete in the Big Ten West.

Going .500 and getting beaten up at Minnesota and Wisconsin makes the season a downer.

Lacking (    )makers

In ’21, Purdue had George Karlaftis and David Bell, stars who were chosen in the 1st and 3rd rounds in the NFL Draft last spring.

It thought it’d be able to replace the star power, but as the ’22 season goes on, it becomes evident that the Boilermakers can not. The lack of play-making from big-time players leaves Purdue with a tendency to lose close games in the final minutes, and it does so vs. Penn State, Syracuse, Minnesota and Iowa. Plus, the Boilermakers are torched at Wisconsin and get beaten by 2 touchdowns against Northwestern in the home finale.

It leaves the Boilermakers 6-6.

Losing to IU

Purdue has everything rolling along, up to 9 wins by the time it travels down to Indiana, which has only 2 victories.

But this is a rivalry game, throw the records out, right?

Indeed.

Looking to get to 10 wins for the first time since 1979, the Boilermakers are weirdly out of sorts. The offense has 3 turnovers in the first half alone, including 2 on fumbles. It gives a bad team life, as IU goes into its locker room up 21-10 at the break. And it doesn’t get better for the Boilermakers in the second, as carelessness leads to 2 more turnovers and an eventual 42-31 loss.

This is awful. Purdue entered the game needing a win and help to become Big Ten West champions. And guess what? It got the necessary help, but lost to the Hoosiers. Ouch.

All wrong

Purdue’s schedule is user-friendly, a reason why many feel the Boilermakers can start the season quickly.

But there are hidden landmines, which they discover early. Purdue falls 24-21 to Penn State in the opener, then by the exact same score at Syracuse, where the Orange were a slight favorite. A win over FAU evens the record, but then the Boilermakers just can’t get over the hump, and it’s never one thing.

O’Connell is steady, but the running game continues to go nowhere and will finish dead last in the Big Ten for the 4th straight season. The QB doesn’t have enough playmakers. Purdue lacks the big plays that it made a year ago. And so the defense has to spend too much time on the field, leading to major breakdowns.

Starting with the Minnesota game, Purdue loses 6 straight before beating Northwestern at home. But the Indiana game looms, and shockingly this one actually means something for the Hoosiers, a chance to get to 6 wins. Nobody predicted this before the season, as most thought Purdue would be bowl-bound and IU would be in the dumpster.

But the role reversal ends with an IU victory, as it gets win No. 6 and the Old Oaken Bucket, and Purdue is left to wander home with only 3 victories.