Purdue, intent on redemption, has fixed many of its vulnerabilities in 2024
A year ago at this time, things were looking pretty good for Purdue.
The Boilermakers cruised to the B1G regular season title and then took home the Big Ten Tournament championship as well.
Then, disaster struck.
Purdue became just the second No. 1 seed ever to lose its opening-round NCAA Tournament game, falling to No. 16-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson, 63-58. The Boilermakers’ offense faltered at the worst possible time, as they scored just .90 points per possession in the historic defeat.
However, there were warning signs that something like that could happen. Purdue’s offense rated highly in opponent-adjusted efficiency metrics, but was vulnerable to cold stretches. Most notably, the Boilers struggled from 3-point range down the stretch of last season as well, failing to hit 25% of their long range attempts in 5 of their final 8 games before the Big Dance.
Those red flags appear to be absent as Purdue prepares for this year’s Big Ten Tournament. In 2024, Purdue is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the entire country (41.1%). But that’s not the only area where Matt Painter’s squad has improved drastically. The Boilermakers are better across the board offensively — and substantially so in some cases.
Here are some key differences in Purdue’s statistical profile compared to last season (rankings via KenPom):
| Stat | 2023 ranking | 2024 ranking |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 12th | 1st |
| Effective field goal % | 102nd | 12th |
| Free throw rate | 37th | 11th |
| 3-point percentage | 276th | 2nd |
| Block percentage | 168th | 4th |
| Division 1 experience | 282nd | 67th |
| Minutes continuity | 226th | 9th |
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The biggest difference there is Purdue’s performance beyond the 3-point line, which has helped it jump up 90 spots in raw effective field goal percentage. Purdue also gets to the free throw line more, gets blocked at the rim less and has risen all the way to No. 1 in adjusted offensive rating.
There’s also factors such as Division 1 experience and minutes continuity, which are both tracked by KenPom. Purdue ranked outside of the top 200 in both of those categories last season. In 2024, they’re 67th and 9th, respectively.
This profile is much, much friendlier to NCAA Tournament success than what Purdue had last season. How much friendlier? That can be illustrated by BartTorvik’s historical comparison scores, which compares a team’s efficiency metrics and tempo numbers to other squads in previous years. The 10 teams throughout history (since 2008) that compare closest to this Purdue team are quite impressive — they combined to win 4 national championships and reached the Tournament’s second weekend all but twice. On average, the teams closest to 2024 Purdue won 3.7 games during the Big Dance.
The closest comparisons to the 2023 version of Purdue are not nearly as accomplished. None won the national title and only 2 reached the Final Four. Four of the 10 teams didn’t make it out of the second round (plus San Diego State in 2020, whose tournament was canceled due to the pandemic). On average, those teams won just 2 games during their respective NCAA Tournaments.
Purdue is currently +190 to make the Final Four over at Caesars. The implied odds at +190 translates to a 34.5% chance that the Boilermakers will reach the Final Four. BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model currently gives Purdue a 38.3% chance to get there — meaning there’s some value on Painter’s squad based on BartTorvik’s projections.
Enough about what has changed. What hasn’t changed?
Zach Edey is still a monster. Edey is the runaway favorite to repeat as the Wooden Award winner, and is set to become the first player to accomplish that feat since Ralph Sampson in 1982-83. Edey has upped his efficiency, raw scoring and assist totals since last season as he’s become a better all-around player. He’s averaging 24.2 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2 assists and 2.2 blocks per game. Efficiency-wise, he’s up to a career-best 65.8% true shooting percentage.
Purdue’s defense is still very strong. The Boilermakers are 21st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. That’s up ever-so-slightly from last season (24th), and there’s nothing concerning in their profile. Purdue defends the 3-point line well and doesn’t foul very often, either. It’s not a hyper-elite defense, but it doesn’t have to be to win the national title (Kansas in 2022 and Baylor in 2021 both won it all with a defense outside of KenPom’s top 15).
Painter is still an elite coach. He shared Big Ten co-coach of the year honors with Fred Hoiberg this season, marking the 5th time he’s won that honor. Beyond the superficial award, Painter has to get credit for all the ways Purdue has improved over the past year. He’s helped develop Edey into what he is. He turned Braden Smith into one of the best guards in the Big Ten. Painter empowered a pair of elite floor spacers in Mason Gillis and Fletcher Loyer to help make things easier on Edey. He went and got Lance Jones out of the transfer portal.
Everything Painter has done over the past year has helped prepare Purdue for its moment of redemption. Now it’s time for the Boilermakers to go and take it.
