Purdue vs. Gonzaga preview: Player prop bet picks

Purdue will take on Gonzaga Friday night in one of the most highly-anticipated Sweet 16 games of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

The Boilermakers find themselves just 2 wins away from getting to the Final Four for the first time since 1980. Gonzaga, meanwhile, is playing in the Sweet 16 for the 9th consecutive NCAA Tournament.

Here’s a betting preview for this game:

Purdue vs. Gonzaga betting info

Spread: Purdue -5.5 (via FanDuel)
Total: 154.5 points (via FanDuel)

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

Purdue: 125.9 (3rd)
Gonzaga: 122.3 (7th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

Purdue: 95.3 (15th)
Gonzaga: 98.6 (44th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Purdue: 67.6 possessions per game (173rd)
Gonzaga: 69.2 possessions per game (86th)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

Zach Edey over 38.5 points + rebounds (-104 on FanDuel)

Zach Edey has cleared this total in all 4 of Purdue’s postseason games so far this season (including the Big Ten Tournament) as well as 7 of his last 8 contests overall. Edey has a case as the most dominant college basketball player in recent memory as both a scorer and a rebounder. Against Gonzaga earlier this season, Edey hit 39 points + rebounds with a 25-point, 14-rebound performance. Edey went to the line 10 times in that game, which is actually slightly-below his season average of 11.2 free throw attempts per game. Gonzaga is going to pull out all the stop to try to slow down Edey, but I’m just not sure it’s going to matter.

Ryan Nembhard over 20.5 points + assists (-125 on FanDuel)

Ryan Nembhard led Gonzaga with a 12-assist game in its round-of-32 victory over Kansas last weekend. He only scored 5 points (on just 6 field goal attempts), so he did fall short of this number, but I’m more interested in what his assist total means for this matchup against Purdue and Edey. The 7-foot-4 Edey patrols the paint more effectively than Kansas center Hunter Dickinson, but Nembhard’s skillset should translate to a high-assist game against the Boilermakers. From a scoring perspective, Nembhard averaged 12.6 points per game during the regular season. If he can get to his scoring average, he should be able to comfortably clear this total.

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Ben Gregg over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+120 on DraftKings)

Ben Gregg is one of Gonzaga’s better shooters and has played a significant role (29 minutes per game) on the team dating back to mid-January. Gonzaga, in general, does not attempt many 3-pointers. The Bulldogs are 313th nationally in 3-point attempt rate entering this game. But against Purdue with Edey manning the middle of the paint? The equation changes significantly. In the previous meeting between these teams, Gonzaga attempted 32 3-pointers — well above its season average of 19.3 per game. The 6-foot-10 Gregg would be a major beneficiary if Gonzaga decides to open things up from the perimeter and could launch 5+ attempts. Given that he’s a 38% shooter from downtown, he has a good chance to hit at least 2 of them.