Purdue vs. Grambling State preview: Player prop bet picks

After a year-long wait, Purdue can take the first meaningful step toward redemption on Friday night.

The Boilermakers will take on Grambling State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday — the same stage that saw them lose to Fairleigh Dickinson a year ago. Purdue became just the second-ever No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed in the Big Dance.

Now back in the Tournament as a No. 1 seed again, Purdue has a chance to make up for its embarrassing defeat from a year ago.

Purdue vs. Grambling State betting info

Spread: Purdue -27.5 (via FanDuel)
Total: 138.5 points (via FanDuel)

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

Purdue: 121.5 (4th)
Grambling State: 100.2 (282nd)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

Purdue: 95.7 (18th)
Grambling State: 107.2 (198th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Purdue: 67.5 possessions per game (173rd)
Grambling State: 64.9 possessions per game (316th)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

Zach Edey under 27.5 points (-185 on DraftKings)

This is an alternate line, as Edey’s actual points prop for this game is listed at 26.5 points. Edey has scored 28+ points in a game 13 times this season — a little under 40% of his games. But if you look more closely, every single one of Edey’s 28+ point games this season came against power-conference foes. Against low-majors, Edey typically takes a back seat in the offense. He scored 18 against Morehead State, Jacksonville and Samford. Back in November, he scored 15 against Texas Southern and 13 against Eastern Washington. Look, there’s no doubt Edey could easily get to 28+ points against Grambling if that’s what he wants to do. But the evidence suggests that won’t be Purdue’s approach in this game.

Mason Gillis over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+102 on FanDuel)

The biggest difference between this year’s Purdue team and last year’s squad is that the Boilermakers can shoot this year. Mason Gillis is a big part of that — he hit 48% of his long-range attempts this year. Gillis comes off the bench for Purdue and only takes about 3.3 attempts per game, but I could see him playing a bigger role in this spot. Grambling’s 3-point defense ranks outside the top-200 nationally — a big matchup problem against one of the most-accurate 3-point shooting teams in the country. We’ve seen Edey’s usage rate plummet against low-majors this season, which means more shots for players like Gillis.

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Kintavious Dozier over 9.5 points (+100 on FanDuel)

Dozier leads Grambling State in both scoring and usage rate. Purdue is probably the best team he will have faced all season, but Dozier has routinely gotten to double digits against NCAA Tournament-quality teams this season. He scored 14 against Iowa State, 34 against Washington State and 16 against Drake. There is some downside here (he scored 11 total points against Colorado, Dayton and Florida, too) but I think Dozier will get enough shots up to get to double digits against the Boilermakers.