Purdue vs. Tennessee preview: Player prop bet picks

Purdue will take on Tennessee on Sunday afternoon with history on the line.

For Purdue, the Boilermakers haven’t made the Final Four since 1980. Purdue is trying to get back to the promised land for the first time in 40+ seasons while also continuing to seek redemption for its first-round loss as a No. 1 seed a year ago.

For the Vols, they’re looking for their first-ever Final Four appearance. Tennessee has long had a proud basketball program, but the Final Four has always been elusive for a program that has had several good teams over the years — particularly under Rick Barnes and former coach Bruce Pearl. This is also just its second-ever Elite Eight appearance.

These teams are also familiar with each other. Purdue defeated Tennessee 71-67 in the Maui Invitational back in November. Here’s a breakdown of what their Elite Eight rematch should look like on Sunday afternoon:

2 Tennessee vs. 1 Purdue| 2:20 p.m. ET | CBS | Detroit, Michigan

Spread: Purdue -3.5 (via FanDuel)
Total: 147.5 (via FanDuel)

Purdue went 19-15-2 against the spread this season, and was even better as a short-to-medium favorite. The Boilermakers went 7-3 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or fewer. The Vols are 18-16-1 vs. the number this season and went 2-3 ATS as a dog this year. This marks just the third time Tennessee has been an underdog since November. The Vols won outright in each of the 2 instances that they were underdogs in SEC play (March 2 against Alabama and Feb. 3 against Kentucky).

Purdue was a 3.5-point favorite over the Vols when these teams met back on Nov. 21.

Before getting to the props, here are some advanced metrics from KenPom to consider:

Opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency

Tennessee: 117.1 (28th)
Purdue: 126.5 (2nd)

Opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency

Tennessee: 90.2 (3rd)
Purdue: 95.6 (19th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Tennessee: 69.3 possessions per game (78th)
Purdue: 67.2 possessions per game (198th)

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With that, here are 3 player props for the game:

Zach Edey over 23.5 points (-106 via FanDuel)

This line feels too low to me given Edey’s recent track record. Since Feb. 25, Edey is averaging 28.6 points per game while taking more than 12 foul shots per contest during that span. He’s cleared this number in 2 of Purdue’s 3 NCAA Tournament games — the lone exception was against Utah State when he scored 23 points in 26 minutes, but was removed for the final 12 minutes of the second half because the outcome was no longer in doubt. Tennessee has had an issue with fouling all season — the Vols rank 250th nationally in free throw attempt rate allowed. No one draws more fouls than Edey. If Jonas Aidoo gets into foul trouble, there’s no one taller than 6-foot-8 in Tennessee’s rotation who can guard Edey. There’s numerous ways for Edey to get to 24 points in this matchup.

Dalton Knecht over 21.5 points (-106 via FanDuel)

Don’t forget about the other All-American in this matchup. Dalton Knecht is more than capable of getting to 22 points in this spot, even against a very good Boilermakers defense. Knecht can score in a variety of ways, but isn’t too reliant on getting points at the rim (which is an area that Edey patrols effectively). Knecht has hit this mark in 2 of Tennessee’s 3 NCAA Tournament games so far this season. At 6-foot-6, Knecht has a size advantage over everyone in Purdue’s back court. Only 4 times this season did Knecht get to at least 15 field goal attempts without scoring at least 22 points.

Fletcher Loyer to make at least 2 3-pointers (-106 via FanDuel)

Fletcher Loyer is shooting an impressive 45% from 3-point range on the season. He’s not a super high-volume shooter, as he’s only attempted 3.6 per game from long range this year. But he’s made multiple 3-pointers in 18-of-36 games overall this season, including in 5 of his last 8. The Vols face a high number of 3-point attempts (they are 309th in 3-point attempt rate allowed) so I’d expect Loyer to take an extra 3-pointer or so in this spot. In Purdue’s previous matchup against Tennessee, Loyer scored 27 points on 18 field goal attempts including 10 3-point tries.