Purdue vs. Utah State preview: Player prop bet picks

Purdue will face Utah State on Saturday afternoon with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line.

The Boilermakers easily dispatched Grambling State in their first-round matchup on Friday. Utah State also earned a double-digit win over TCU on Friday, beating the Horned Frogs 88-72.

Purdue is looking to reach the Sweet 16 for the second time in the last three seasons. The Aggies, on the other hand, have not made it to the Sweet 16 since 1970.

Purdue vs. Utah State betting info

Spread: Purdue -11.5 (via FanDuel)
Total: 148.5 points (via FanDuel)

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

Purdue: 125.2 (4th)
Utah State: 116.4 (29th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

Purdue: 95.7 (20th)
Utah State: 100.4 (67th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Purdue: 67.3 possessions per game (190th)
Utah State: 68.6 possessions per game (108th)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

Zach Edey over 38.5 points + rebounds (-115 on DraftKings)

Zach Edey hit 51 on this prop (30 points, 21 rebounds) in Purdue’s first-round win over Grambling State. Utah State is significantly better than Grambling overall, but rebounding is not necessarily a strength for the Aggies. Edey is one of the very best rebounders in the country and he’s going up against a Utah State team that ranks 196th in offensive rebounding and 65th in defensive rebounding. Edey was the most dominant player in the country this season and I don’t see a reason why that won’t continue vs. Utah State.

Braden Smith under 1.5 made 3-pointers (-175 on DraftKings)

Braden Smith is one of Purdue’s best shooters, but he’s only hit multiple 3-pointers in 13-of-34 games so far this season. Even recently, Smith has cleared this total in just 4 of his last 13 games. Purdue is also facing one of the nation’s best 3-point defenses in this matchup. The Aggies have allowed opposing offenses to make just 29.3% of their 3-point attempts this season, which ranks 3rd nationally.

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Great Osobor under 14.5 points (-110 on FanDuel)

Great Osobor is Utah State’s best offensive player, but he’s drawing a tough matchup in this game against Purdue. The Boilermakers’ defense is anchored by Zach Edey and ranks 20th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Osobor gets almost all of his work done on the interior — he scored 17.8 points per game this season on under 11 2-point attempts per contest. I’m not buying that level off efficiency will continue against Edey and the rest of Purdue’s defense on Sunday.