Rece Davis remains concerned about Purdue’s chances in the NCAA Tournament and he won’t be the only one. However, this is the best year for Matt Painter to prove the program’s doubters wrong.

In a Wednesday appearance for “The Pat McAfee Show,” Davis said he is “going to have to see it to believe it” when it comes to the Boilermakers in March Madness. Purdue has captured the regular season B1G title and No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Basketball Tournament, but the Boilermakers had a similar regular season last year before a disastrous upset in the Big Dance.

That upset — actually, a string of upsets in March — has the chance to take a mental toll on the players, per Davis.

“(Zach Edey’s) a big-time player and they’ve added some depth, they’ve added some older players that have helped them, but I just worry about their mental side. I believe their last 3 outs are Fairleigh Dickinson, St. Peter’s and North Texas,” said Davis.

“If it gets a little tight, I worry that weighs on them. They’re good enough to do it, I just worry about their mental overload and the pressure that comes with that one-and-done thing in the tournament.”

Regardless of Davis’ concerns, the Boilermakers are among the favorites to reach the Final Four at +170 odds on DraftKings. Fans can also track all the March Madness odds and trends with Tradition’s Ohio sports betting links and apps.

Why you should “Boiler up” in March

Listen, I know it’s trendy to hate on Purdue. But if we’re being totally honest, you should be riding with the Boilermakers in your bracket this year.

That sounds bold, but it’s really about simple history.

Per KenPom‘s adjusted efficiency margin, Purdue is 3rd in the entire country. Houston and UConn, the other teams likely to be 1-seeds, are the only teams higher, but the Boilermakers are the best team in the country in one area.

When it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency, the Boilermakers are the No. 1 team in the country. While defensive efficiency also matters (a lot), it is the adjusted offensive efficiency that carries more weight when trying to predict March success.

Last season’s champion UConn finished the year as the No. 3 team in adjusted offensive efficiency. Gonzaga, the nation’s best offense per the metric, had the 73rd adjusted defensive efficiency. Purdue does not struggle from that problem with the No. 20 adjusted defensive efficiency.

Furthermore, in the past 8 NCAA Tournaments, 5 of the national champions had a top-3 rating in adjusted offensive efficiency. By comparison, Purdue was 12th in the metric last season when the Boilermakers were upset by FDU, and the program ranked 26th in the metric when they lost to North Texas in a Round of 64 upset in 2021.

During the 2022 NCAA Tournament, Purdue ranked 2nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency but had a 93rd ranking in adjust defensive efficiency. However, while the Boilermakers did lose to 15-seed St. Peter’s, that loss came in the Sweet 16. That stands as Purdue’s deepest run since 2019.

Translation? This Purdue team is different.

You don’t have to believe it, but your bracket will be better if you do.