Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Purdue. We’ll stay with the B1G West all week. Game-by-game breakdowns of the B1G East’s teams appeared last week.

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The Boilermakers were the little engine that could in 2021. Not that it was anything new.

After beating then-No. 2 Iowa and then-No. 3 Michigan State, Purdue has 17 wins all-time against top-5 teams while unranked. No other program has more than 11.

But therein lies the rub.

Beating top-5 teams while unranked is no longer the extent of Purdue’s aspirations. The Boilermakers are looking to be ranked themselves the next time they come across a top-5 opponent. And that’s not all.

For the first time since the B1G expanded and split into divisions in 2011, Purdue has legitimate hopes of making the short trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game.

“This field right here is where we want to be in December,” Boilers quarterback Aidan O’Connell said at Big Ten Media Days. “That’s our measure of success this year. We want to be competing for a Big Ten championship.

“It hasn’t happened in a long time at Purdue. We feel after a special season last year we can build on momentum and do it again. Maybe even better.”

O’Connell is a big reason why that’s the case.

After dueling with Jack Plummer for the starting job over the course of 2 seasons, O’Connell finally took over for good at the start of October and never looked back. He finished second in the B1G to Ohio State’s CJ Stroud with 309 passing yards per game and 28 touchdowns.

Armed with the program’s best passer since the Joe Tiller era, Jeff Brohm has Purdue poised to reach the next level. But the Boilers will have to navigate through some unknowns to make that happen.

Who will catch the ball?

O’Connell will need to keep the magic going without any of his top 3 targets from a year ago.

David Bell, who followed in Rondale Moore’s footsteps as one of the great game-breaking receivers in Purdue history, is now in the NFL. No. 2 wideout Milton Wright’s 732 yards are gone due to academic ineligibility. Jackson Anthtrop’s 53 catches for 570 yards graduated.

Marshall transfer Broc Thompson provided a potential glimpse into the future during Purdue’s 48-45 Music City Bowl win over Tennessee. Thompson had 7 catches for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Volunteers.

Junior Payne Durham is one of the Big Ten’s most reliable tight ends. He had 6 touchdown catches last year, including a pair in the bowl game. He also exceeded 100 yards against Oregon State and Wisconsin.

A pair of Iowa transfers will be expected to carry a heavy load in the Purdue receiving corps.

Indianapolis native Tyrone Tracy transferred in December, clearly eager to get a shot in a more receiver-friendly offense. This summer, he was surprisingly joined by Charlie Jones, who is the reigning Big Ten return specialist of the year. Jones will be a key contributor to Purdue on both offense and special teams.

How do you replace Karlaftis and Alexander?

The 2021 Boilers finished 6th in the Big Ten in total defense. That might not seem spectacular to the untrained eye, but that’s Purdue’s best defensive ranking since 2006. And it will be difficult to replicate the production of cornerstone players George Karlaftis and Jaylan Alexander.

Karlaftis’s stats — 9.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks — did not do justice to the defensive end’s impact. He was a double team-drawing machine who made life easier for all of his teammates. Among them was Alexander, who cleaned up with 113 tackles.

A pair of all-B1G honorable mentions — defensive tackle Branson Deen and outside linebacker Jalen Graham — need to be the heart and soul of this Purdue defense. And it certainly won’t hurt that 5 other defensive starters are returning.

Can the Boilers run?

Brohm’s pass-happy offense is never going to get a ton out of its running game. But it is possible to squeeze more juice than we’ve seen the past few seasons.

Purdue averaged 136.4 rushing yards per game in 2018. In the 3 years since, that has gone down to 83.3 ypg (2019), 81.5 ypg (2020) and and 84.0 ypg (2021).

Injuries were a factor in last season’s low production, so simply having a full stable of backs should help. But look for Brohm to use Tracy and Jones as ball carriers to give his offense a creative path to a more productive running attack.

Game-by-game projections

Week 1: vs. Penn State (L)

This Thursday night showdown in Week 1 is the most fun inter-division matchup in the Big Ten this season. Both teams can light up the scoreboard. Neither is particularly adept at running the ball, so this might resemble a vintage Big 12 game. Penn State’s defense will make the difference.

Week 2: vs. Indiana State (W)

Purdue can’t have a successful season if it loses to a team with “Indiana” in its name. It won’t happen here.

Week 3: at Syracuse (W)

Syracuse’s last game against a Big Ten opponent was a 63-20 loss at Maryland in 2019. That was the first of 3 straight losing seasons for the Orange. But Syracuse running back Sean Tucker is one of college football’s best, so this will be more challenging than it looks on paper.

Week 4: vs. Florida Atlantic (W)

This smells like the type of game where you check the score at halftime and go “Huh?” before Purdue wakes up and pulls away.

Week 5: at Minnesota (W)

Statistically, the Boilers dominated this game last year. Purdue outgained Minnesota 448-294 and had 28 first downs to Minnesota’s 12. But a pair of key turnovers helped the Gophers to a 20-13 win. Purdue will still have the edge, but this time walks away with the win.

Week 6: at Maryland (L)

Expect the total to exceed 100 in what will be the wildest Big Ten game of the season. Maryland’s talented receiving corps will be the difference.

Week 7: vs. Nebraska (W)

Charlie Jones will provide an ample reminder of why he’s the Big Ten return specialist of the year against Nebraska’s still-suspect special teams.

Week 8: at Wisconsin (L)

Kyle Orton is the most recent Purdue quarterback to beat the Badgers. Kyle Orton will remain the most recent Purdue quarterback to beat the Badgers. I’m not prepared for the roulette wheel to land on black after 15 straight reds.

Week 9: Bye

Week 10: vs. Iowa (W)

Tracy and Jones will go off against their former team, which used to be absolutely tortured by David Bell.

Week 11: at Illinois (W)

A very dangerous game. Bret Bielema has the right formula for frustrating a team like Purdue, and did so in a game the Boilers pulled out 13-9 last season. O’Connell took over for Plummer in the middle of that game, and should have a better performance now that he’s a fully-prepared starter.

Week 12: vs. Northwestern (L)

With a Senior Day win over the lowly Wildcats, the Boilers can all but lock up the Big Ten West. Unfortunately, West Lafayette is Pat Fitzgerald’s second home. Northwestern hasn’t lost at Ross-Ade since 2007, which amounts to a 5-game winning streak. A signature upset of the 2022 Big Ten season.

Week 13: at Indiana (W)

Scoreboards will be closely watched as 5 B1G West teams head into the final weekend with a shot at the division title. Indiana, which needs a win to become bowl eligible, holds a late lead before O’Connell leads a comeback that breaks Hoosier hearts and takes back the Old Oaken Bucket.

2022 Projection: 8-4 (5-4), 2nd in B1G West

#BoilerUp

The Big Ten West is constantly teetering on the brink of madness. And in what is likely to be the division’s penultimate season, the Crystal Ball foresees the wackiest outcome of them all: a 4-way tie for first place.

Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa and Minnesota will all finish 5-4 in the B1G, with Nebraska tailing at 4-5 after dropping the season finale to the Hawkeyes.

Based on the Big Ten tiebreaking procedure, the division champion is then determined by the team with the best record within the pool of tied teams.

  • Wisconsin (2-1): W vs. Purdue, W vs. Minnesota, L vs. Iowa
  • Purdue (2-1): W vs. Iowa, W vs. Minnesota, L vs. Wisconsin
  • Minnesota (1-2): W vs. Iowa, L vs. Purdue, L vs. Wisconsin
  • Iowa (1-2): W vs. Wisconsin, L vs. Purdue, L vs. Minnesota

Once you’ve done all that, it comes down to the head-to-head matchup between Wisconsin and Purdue. The Badgers have the edge there, and with that comes an appearance in the Big Ten championship game. It’s an agonizingly close-but-no-cigar outcome for the Boilers.

Is this a ridiculous scenario? Of course. But it’s also exactly what would have happened last year if Nebraska held on to beat Iowa in the season finale. Four teams would have tied atop the standings at 6-3.

The Crystal Ball sees chaos reaching its zenith in 2022.